Short the Lower-High: Fading XRP’s 2.81–2.83 Supply Toward 2.72

Comprehensive multi‑method technical review for XRP over the last 90 days (daily) and the most recent 24 hours (hourly). Current price: 2.7596.

1. Market regime and structure

• Primary trend (daily): After a strong advance into mid–late July (peak zone 3.55–3.65), price has been in a persistent corrective downtrend since early August, posting a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Recent daily closes show a stair‑step decline from ~3.28 (Aug 13) to 2.76 (Sep 1).
• Secondary trend (last 7–10 sessions): A broad, downward‑sloping channel with lower‑high supply stacking between 2.96 → 3.01 → 2.93 → 2.85–2.93, and demand stepping down from 2.95 → 2.90 → 2.85 → 2.82 → 2.78 → today’s intraday sweep to 2.7065.
• Intraday (hourly, Sep 1): Wide early range 2.7065–2.834, then compression with lower highs in the afternoon U.T.C. session. Price failed above 2.815–2.834 multiple times and settled near 2.76, indicating sellers defending the 2.81–2.83 pocket.

2. Key levels (derived from the dataset)

• Support: 2.7065 (intraday low today), 2.74–2.76 (minor hourly shelf), 2.77 (Aug 31 close), psychological 2.70, and deeper potential at ~2.65 if 2.70 breaks.
• Resistance: 2.815–2.834 (hourly rejection band), 2.85 (former support turned resistance), 2.89–2.93 (Fib cluster/50–61.8% retrace of the most recent swing), 2.96–3.01 (daily supply from late Aug closes).

3. Moving averages (daily)

• 20‑day SMA (approx): ~2.97 (average of the last 20 daily closes). Price at 2.76 sits well below, confirming bearish momentum and room for mean reversion rallies that tend to be sold.
• 50‑day SMA (approx): Slightly above the 20‑SMA given July highs; estimated ~3.05 (range 3.00–3.10). With price below both 20 and 50, the MA stack is bearish.
• 9/21‑EMA relationship (qualitative): Given the steady sequence of lower closes since Aug 14, the fast EMA is likely below the slow EMA; bearish alignment persists.

4. Momentum

• RSI(14) daily (approx calc using the last 14 closes): ~45–46. This is below 50 but not oversold; room exists for further downside before classical oversold signals (<30) trigger. Momentum favors selling rallies rather than knife‑catching dips.
• Hourly RSI behavior: A morning liquidity sweep to 2.7065 likely printed near‑oversold on the hourlies. The subsequent bounce failed at 2.81–2.83 without a momentum breakout, suggesting lower‑high continuation.

5. MACD (daily, qualitative)

• The August drift lower implies MACD histogram likely negative and below signal, with mild flattening after the late‑Aug acceleration. No confirmed bullish cross evident from price alone; bias remains down until a base forms or the 2.85–2.93 band is reclaimed.

6. Bollinger Bands (daily)

• With 20‑SMA ~2.97 and recent realized volatility ~0.15–0.20, the lower band is roughly 2.65–2.67. Price at 2.76 is nearer the lower band than the midline, indicating bearish pressure but not a classic outside‑band exhaustion. Bands are moderately wide, consistent with trend volatility.

7. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price is below Tenkan and Kijun and likely below/near the leading span cloud. Chikou span would be under price given recent declines. This configuration supports a bearish regime until price can clear the Kijun and enter/clear the cloud—levels that align with 2.90–3.00 supply.

8. Volume/OBV and participation

• Daily volume swelled on down days (e.g., Aug 22–29), and the most recent sessions’ selloffs occurred on substantial volume. OBV (qualitatively inferred) trends down, aligning with price—bearish confirmation.
• Today’s intraday tone: Multiple rejections at 2.815–2.834 with sufficient prints suggest active supply. No accumulation footprint yet around 2.76 aside from the morning sweep and bounce.

9. VWAP/Market profile (intraday qualitative)

• Session behavior shows balance developing below the mid‑day highs, with sellers leaning above 2.80. A day VWAP would sit near the mid‑range (~2.77–2.78). Late‑session prints below/near VWAP indicate sellers retained control into the close of the provided data.

10. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing used: Aug 22 high 3.0758 to today’s intraday low 2.7065.
  • 38.2%: ~2.847; 50%: ~2.891; 61.8%: ~2.932.
• The 2.815–2.834 intraday failure sits just under the 38.2%–50% retrace band; the 2.85–2.93 pocket is a confluence “sell zone.” Until price reclaims >2.93, rallies into this band are statistically likely to fade within a prevailing downtrend.

11. Pattern diagnostics

• Bearish channel / grinddown: Lower highs from 3.375 (Aug 8) → 3.345 (Aug 9) → 3.327 (Aug 11) → 3.281 (Aug 13) → 3.142/3.108 cluster (Aug 15–16) → 3.075 (Aug 22) → sub‑3.00 closes thereafter. Structure is intact.
• Hourly bear flag potential: The early bounce to 2.83 followed by compressive drift to 2.76 reflects a flag forming under resistance; a break below 2.74–2.75 would likely target a retest of 2.7065.

12. ATR and expected 24h range

• Using recent day‑to‑day absolute close changes, a 14‑day ATR proxy ~0.09. From 2.76, a typical 24h range projection: 2.67–2.85. Extremes outside that likely require a volatility event; otherwise, expect excursions toward 2.70–2.83 with mean near 2.75–2.78.

13. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Early Asia/Europe drive a liquidity sweep toward 2.72–2.70, followed by a bounce capped under 2.83. Session closes near 2.74–2.77.
• Bear extension (25%): Loss of 2.70 opens a quick push to 2.65–2.67 (near daily lower band estimate) before stabilization. Close 2.68–2.72.
• Bull surprise (20%): Strong reclaim above 2.83 and acceptance above 2.85 (38.2% retracement) drives to 2.89–2.93. Without sustained volume, likely fades back into the range.

14. Confluence and edge

• Direction: Downtrend on daily, sub‑20/50MAs, RSI <50, MACD negative, defended supply in 2.81–2.85. The most asymmetric short entries are at/into resistance pockets rather than at current mid‑range prints.
• Location: Current price 2.76 sits between support (2.70–2.72) and resistance (2.81–2.83). R:R improves by selling a pop into 2.81–2.83 or shorting a breakdown <2.74 if momentum accelerates.

15. Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Sell rallies into resistance; trend following with tight invalidation.
• Optimal entry (limit short): 2.815, just inside the intraday failure band and under the 38.2% retrace (~2.847), maximizing fill probability while preserving R:R.
• Profit target (24h tactical): 2.720 (above the 2.7065 sweep to front‑run liquidity and increase hit rate). A more aggressive extension target would be 2.705, but 2.720 aligns with typical ATR and avoids missing fills.
• Invalidation (not part of the output fields but essential for risk): A daily/hourly close above ~2.85 weakens the short; a hard stop could sit 2.86–2.88. A reclaim and hold above 2.93 would negate the tactical short setup and transition to neutral/up.

16. 24h price path expectation

• Expect chop with bearish tilt: probe 2.72–2.70, bounce attempts into 2.80–2.83 likely sold unless strong momentum/volume appears. Probable settlement 2.74–2.77.

Conclusion: The dominant downtrend, sub‑MA positioning, defended supply at 2.81–2.85, and momentum context favor a tactical short. Plan: Sell a rally near 2.815 with a take‑profit near 2.720 over the next 24 hours.