XRP poised for a VWAP pullback buy toward the 2.93–2.95 supply pocket

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish continuation after a constructive bounce from the 2.70–2.78 demand zone, with room toward 2.90–2.95 if momentum persists. Ideal plan: buy a pullback into 2.82–2.83 with take-profit ahead of clustered resistance around 2.93–2.95.
• Key levels (spot ~2.8427): Support 2.81–2.83 (intraday VWAP/pivot), 2.78, 2.75–2.76; Resistance 2.85, 2.88–2.92 (R1/R2 cluster), 2.95, 3.00.

Multi-timeframe price structure and context

• Daily trend: After peaking mid-July (~3.65), XRP retraced into late August/Sept 1, printing a swing low ~2.706. The last four sessions formed a basing-bounce sequence: closes 2.8219 → 2.8182 → 2.7766 → 2.7537, and today reclaiming 2.84. Structure is transitioning from down to sideways-to-up.
• 1H intraday: Series of higher lows since Sep 1 21:00 (2.723 → 2.751 → 2.762 → 2.789 → 2.798 → 2.770 higher low → 2.791 → 2.804 → 2.815), and marginal higher highs (into 2.851). Dips keep getting bid quickly—constructive for continuation.

Support and resistance mapping

• Immediate supports: 2.81–2.83 (intraday pivot/VWAP zone), 2.78 (S1/pullback shelf), 2.75 (psychological/late-Aug demand), 2.706 (cycle swing low).
• Overhead resistances: 2.85 (today’s local high), 2.88–2.92 (hourly congestion and classic R1–R2 cluster), 2.95 (round number + late-Aug supply), 3.00 (psychological; confluence with 38.2–50% retracement bands from the larger swing).

Classical indicators

1. Moving averages (daily)

• 20D SMA ≈ 2.97 (approx). Price 2.84 is below but rising toward it—typical mean-reversion magnet if the bounce sustains.
• 50D SMA likely above 20D given July strength; price still below the 50D, so higher-timeframe still neutral-to-bearish, but short-term momentum favors a test of the 20D first.
• Read-through: Short-term reversion toward 2.97 is plausible; initial resistance expected before 3.00.

2. RSI

• Daily RSI (estimated mid-40s to high-40s): out of downside momentum, turning up—room to run before overbought.
• 1H RSI likely ~60–65 with steady trend: constructive but not extreme; could power a push to 2.90–2.93 before needing a reset.
• Read-through: Momentum supports a grind higher; no immediate overbought signal on the daily.

3. MACD

• Daily MACD histogram likely improving (less negative) after the Sept 1 low; signal crossover risk to the upside in coming sessions.
• 1H MACD positive with shallow pullbacks—consistent with trend continuation and buy-the-dip behavior.
• Read-through: Momentum tailwind favors incremental upside.

4. Bollinger Bands (daily)

• 20D basis ~2.97; lower band estimate ~2.65–2.67; price rebounded off the lower-third of the envelope and is migrating toward the mid-band.
• Read-through: Mean reversion suggests 2.95–3.00 test is possible if buyers maintain control.

5. ATR / volatility

• Daily ATR(14) roughly 0.24–0.28. A 1× ATR move from 2.84 implies a reasonable upside envelope near 3.08 and a downside envelope near 2.60; over 24h, a half-ATR to three-quarter-ATR move is common, placing 2.93–2.95 in reach while keeping 2.78–2.80 as realistic pullback risk.

Volume, flow, and participation

• Daily volume today is tracking near or slightly under yesterday with hours remaining—supportive of the rebound narrative. Pullbacks are seeing responsive buying on 1H bars (tails with subsequent follow-through), suggesting real demand into 2.80–2.83.
• OBV (qualitatively) turned higher with today’s basing break—bullish confirmation on the lower timeframes.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• Larger swing fibs (Jul 18 high ~3.65 to Sep 1 low ~2.706):
  • 38.2% retrace ~3.07; 50% ~3.18; 61.8% ~3.29. Current ~2.84 is below 38.2%, leaving overhead room before major supply. Over the next 24h, the 38.2% (3.07) is likely too far, but 2.93–2.98 is achievable if momentum persists.
• Intraday swing (today’s low ~2.751 to high ~2.852):
  • 38.2% ~2.812; 61.8% ~2.813–2.829 zone depending on anchor precision. The market tested deeper (~2.791) and reclaimed quickly—bullish.

Ichimoku (qualitative)

• 1H: Price trading above a rising cloud with Tenkan > Kijun behavior typical of trend resumption; pullbacks toward Kijun (~2.81–2.83 zone) should attract bids.
• Daily: Still below the thicker cloud and 20D basis, so bigger picture resistance sits overhead. Near term, bullish but constrained by higher-timeframe supply between 2.95 and 3.05.

Market profile and VWAP (intraday)

• Intraday VWAP tracks in the low 2.81s to 2.82s; price has held above for much of the session. First meaningful dip to VWAP should see responsive buyers; this aligns with an optimal limit buy placement around 2.828–2.832.

Pivot points (derived from today’s provisional OHLC: H ~2.8516, L ~2.7511, C ~2.8427)

• Pivot P ≈ 2.815
• R1 ≈ 2.879; R2 ≈ 2.916; R3 ≈ 2.980
• S1 ≈ 2.779; S2 ≈ 2.715
• Read-through: A breakout of 2.85–2.88 opens R1/R2. Take-profit just ahead of R2-R3 cluster (2.93–2.95) is prudent.

Trendlines and channels

• A short-term rising channel on 1H connects higher lows and higher highs; upper boundary into 2.90–2.93 by tomorrow if slope persists, matching pivot R2.
• A descending daily channel from late July remains intact; current bounce targets its midline near 2.95.

Pattern read and candles

• 1H shows constructive shallow pullbacks and demand wicks. The mid-session dip to ~2.791 was bought and converted into higher closes—bullish absorption.
• Daily prints a bullish follow-through candle after a multi-day fade—early evidence of a swing low.

Momentum breadth and ADX (qualitative)

• 1H ADX rising with +DI > -DI is typical of a sustainable intraday up-leg.
• Daily ADX subdued post-selloff, leaving room for trend expansion if buyers can reclaim 2.95–3.00 later this week.

Risk factors and invalidation

• Local invalidation for the long idea sits below 2.78 (S1 and recent higher low cluster). A decisive loss of 2.78 would likely drag price back to 2.75 and potentially to 2.71–2.72 (S2 and Sept 1 low).
• Overhead supply between 2.93 and 3.00 can stall price; expect choppiness near 2.95.

Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case, 60%: Buy-the-dip continuation. Price pulls back to 2.82–2.83, holds above VWAP/pivot, then pushes through 2.85 toward 2.90–2.93. Optimal TP in front of R2 at ~2.93–2.94.
• Range, 25%: Chop between 2.80 and 2.88 as the market builds energy below resistance; multiple tags of VWAP are bought but extensions fade near 2.88–2.90.
• Bear case, 15%: Liquidity sweep above 2.85 fails; breakdown through 2.80–2.78 opens 2.75 retest. This would invalidate the immediate long bias.

Trade plan and execution logic

• Entry method: Limit buy into 2.828–2.832 (VWAP/pivot confluence, 61.8%–78.6% of today’s impulse). If price continues without pullback, consider small market entry only on a clean 1H close above 2.855 followed by a retest.
• Target: First take-profit ahead of R2 and congestion at 2.93–2.95. Chasing beyond 2.95 in the next 24h is lower probability given daily supply and the 20D basis overhead.
• Optional protection: A stop could be placed below 2.775 to avoid chop; risk ~0.055–0.060 per unit for a reward ~0.105–0.115 (R ~1.8–2.0), acceptable for a 24h swing.

Bottom line

• Momentum, structure, and volume behavior favor a controlled continuation higher with best risk-reward via a pullback entry. Targeting the 2.93–2.95 supply edge aligns with pivot math and mean reversion toward the 20D basis.