XRP: Buy the S1/Fib 38.2% Retest Near 2.98 for a Push Toward 3.12 Within 24 Hours

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish within a consolidating range. Expect a basing attempt near 2.98–3.00 with a push toward 3.08–3.12 if 2.96–2.98 support holds.
• Strategy: Buy the dip/retest near intraday S1 (≈2.99) with targets into the 3.10–3.12 resistance cluster. Invalidated on a decisive break below 2.94.

Price structure and trend

• Market structure (daily): Since Sep 1 low (2.7537), XRP has printed higher highs and higher lows into Sep 13 (3.1215). The last two sessions are a pullback, not a trend reversal, as long as 2.94–2.96 holds.
• Multi-timeframe: Daily trend up from early Sep; 4h/1h in consolidation with a shallow descending micro-channel since Sep 13 high. Today’s 08:00 sell spike to 2.9656 was bought, forming a higher intraday low vs. Sep 10–11 pullbacks.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (14D): ≈66, cooled from near-overbought; still bullish momentum with room to advance.
• Stochastic (14,3): ~57 and curling; favors bounce attempts rather than breakdowns.
• MACD (12,26,9, daily): Positive and narrowing; momentum cooled after Sep 13 but remains above zero-line, typical of pullback-in-uptrend.
• CCI (20): Mildly positive; no extreme reading.
• Williams %R (14): Mid-range; not overbought.
• CMF/OBV: Net positive since Sep 1; slight downtick last two days but still constructive versus late-August.

Trend-following baselines

• Moving averages: Price > 20D SMA (~2.92) and near-to-slightly below the 50D SMA (≈3.02–3.05 est.). Short-term EMA8 ≈3.03 is above price; EMA21 ≈2.95 below. This “price between short and medium EMAs” is classic consolidation inside a broader uptrend.
• ADX (14): Low-to-moderate (~20–22). Trend exists but isn’t forceful; breakouts can be faded unless volume expands.
• Parabolic SAR: Still below price on daily (bullish), not far beneath (~2.95–2.96 zone), consistent with shallow pullback.

Volatility and envelopes

• Bollinger Bands (20D): Mid ~2.92; upper ~3.16; lower ~2.68 (est.). Price sits between mid and upper band—bullish but not extended. Bandwidth moderate; no squeeze signal.
• Keltner Channel (EMA20 ± 2×ATR): Center ~2.93, envelope ~[2.73, 3.13]. Price in upper half—constructive.
• ATR (14D): ~0.10–0.12. Implies typical daily range that can accommodate a 3.10–3.12 test if support holds.

Ichimoku (daily, est.)

• Tenkan-sen ~3.03; Kijun-sen ~3.05; price 2.997 is just below Tenkan and Kijun.
• Cloud (26F): Span A ~3.04; Span B ~2.84–2.85. Price is inside the cloud—neutral overall but above Span B; a Tenkan reclaim is a near-term bullish tell.

Key levels, confluence, and patterns

• Horizontal support: 2.96–2.98 (today’s bought dip and multiple early-Sep references); 2.94 (50% retrace of Sep 1–13 leg); 2.90/2.86 (deeper supports).
• Resistance: 3.04–3.06 (intraday supply and Tenkan/Kijun/Cloud top zone); 3.10–3.12 (R1 cluster and 38.2% retrace from July high to Aug low); 3.18 (local swing high); 3.25/3.32 higher.
• Fibonacci: • From Sep 1 (2.7537) to Sep 13 (3.1215): 38.2% pullback ≈2.981; 50% ≈2.938; 61.8% ≈2.894. Today’s 2.9656 low respected the 38.2% level—bullish retracement behavior. • From July top (~3.64) to Aug 31 low (2.7766): 38.2% recovery ≈3.108—precisely where price is stalling. A clean push-and-hold above 3.11 would unlock 3.20–3.31.
• Pivots (classic, based on Sep 14): P≈3.057, R1≈3.101, R2≈3.169, S1≈2.989, S2≈2.945. Current price is near S1 and below P, offering a tactical long setup toward R1.
• Intraday pattern (1h): Tightening triangle between ~2.965 and ~3.05. First move out of this coil likely defines the 24h path.
• Volume: Morning sell candle had the session’s heaviest volume and was absorbed; subsequent recovery on lighter volume = constructive but needs fresh buy flow to clear 3.05–3.06.

Risk framework and scenario analysis (24h)

• Bullish base case (≈60%): 2.98–3.00 holds; reclaim Tenkan/Kijun near 3.03–3.05; extension into 3.10–3.12, possible wicks to 3.16 if volume expands.
• Range case (≈30%): 2.96–3.05 chop persists; failed breaks fade back to mean around 3.00–3.03.
• Bearish break (≈10%): Lose 2.96 then 2.94; tests 2.90–2.86 before dip buyers return.

Trade plan

• Thesis: Buy the dip at the S1/38.2% retrace confluence (≈2.98–2.99). Target the confluence of R1/38.2% recovery (~3.10–3.12). This risk/reward is favorable relative to ATR and supports.
• Entry: 2.985 (limit) to capture retests without chasing.
• Take-profit: 3.118 (near R1/major fib and pre-break supply). If momentum is strong intraday, consider trailing above 3.12 toward 3.16; otherwise bank at first target.
• Invalidation/stop (not part of the schema but essential): 2.938 (decisive below 50% retrace and S2). Risk ≈0.047 per unit; reward ≈0.133 → R:R ≈ 2.8:1.

What would change the view

• Bearish: Hourly close sub-2.96 followed by failure to reclaim 2.98 turns the next 24h bias to defensive, targeting 2.90–2.86.
• Bullish acceleration: Strong buy volume on a 1h close above 3.06 opens a faster run to 3.12/3.16 and shifts the plan to buying break-and-retest instead of dip-buys.

Bottom line

• The pullback has thus far respected the 38.2% retracement and S1 pivot. Momentum cooled but remains constructive. Favor controlled dip-buys near 2.98–2.99 for a push into 3.10–3.12 within 24 hours, with a hard line in the sand at ~2.94.