XRP Basing Breakout: Buy the Dip Near 3.03 for a Push Into 3.11–3.12

XRP (USD) multi-timeframe technical analysis as of 2025-09-16 21:01 UTC

Summary view

• Current price: 3.0483
• 24h bias: Mildly bullish; grinding higher within a short-term ascending structure, but capped by nearby resistance at 3.055–3.12 (R1/R2 cluster and 0.382 retrace zone).
• Plan: Buy-the-dip toward VWAP/10H EMA or pivot P, targeting a push into 3.11–3.12 within 24h. Place protective risk just below round-number/structural support.

1. Price structure and trend

• Higher timeframe (Daily): After the July blow-off (peak ~3.65 on Jul-18/21), price retraced into early September (~2.75 low on Sep-1), then carved a sequence of higher lows: 2.81 (Sep-6), 2.88 (Sep-7), 2.95 (Sep-9), ~2.97–3.00 (Sep-15/16). Highs have also been rising, with resistance now layered 3.04–3.12. Net: constructive basing with an upward drift.
• Intermediate: A rising channel/ascending triangle is forming with a horizontal cap ~3.10–3.12 and a rising trendline from the Sep-1 low; this typically resolves higher if momentum and volume expand on attempts to clear the ceiling.
• Intraday (Hourly 09/16): Series of higher lows from ~2.982 → ~3.012 → ~3.036; local highs 3.046–3.057. Today’s action respected the gradient, with modest pullbacks being bought. This looks like a controlled bullish grind rather than a momentum spike.

2. Moving averages

• 10D SMA ≈ 2.989 (computed from Sep-6→Sep-15 closes). Price > 10D SMA: short-term uptrend intact.
• 20D SMA ≈ 2.916 (computed from Aug-27→Sep-15). Price > 20D SMA: momentum relative to the monthly mean is positive.
• 50D SMA (est.) ~ 3.05–3.10 (given July–Sep distributions). Price ~ at/just below this region; mid-term trend still neutral-to-slightly bearish but flattening. A decisive close above ~3.10 would tilt the 50D picture back to bullish.
• EMAs (qualitative): 8/13/21 EMAs on daily likely stacked or converging with price above 8/13 and near 21 EMA. This alignment usually supports buy-the-dip tactics until a close below the 13/21 EMA pair.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI (Daily, est. 14): Mid-to-high 50s (55–60). Not overbought; supports further upside room. Rising RSI with higher lows signals improving trend vigor.
• MACD (Daily, qualitative): Histogram likely positive since early/mid Sep with a recent bull cross; shallow but constructive. A push above 3.10–3.12 would likely broaden histogram and confirm momentum continuation.
• Stochastic RSI (qualitative): Oscillating near mid-high region; no immediate overbought signal; can stay elevated in trends.
• DMI/ADX (Daily): DI+ > DI−, ADX still moderate; suggests trend forming but not extended. Room for trend strengthening on breakout.
• Vortex (VI+ vs VI−): Likely positive spread; confirms short-term trend bias up.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14D, est.): ~0.11–0.13. Expect near-term swings of ±0.10–0.15.
• Bollinger Bands (20D, est.): Mid ~2.916; upper ~3.17; lower ~2.66. Price is in the upper half but not hugging the band, implying there’s headroom to 3.10–3.17 if buyers persist.
• Keltner Channels: Price near/above middle line; modest expansion. No squeeze, but a measured volatility regime that suits buy-the-dip or pivot-to-R2 trades.
• Donchian channels (20): Upper bound likely ~3.18–3.20, lower ~2.75; price working toward the upper third.

5. Market profile / volume context

• Daily volumes have moderated from July’s extremes (12–19B) to 4–7B recently; nonetheless, upticks on green days around Sep-10/13/11 suggest accumulation rather than distribution.
• Visible range (qualitative): High-participation nodes near 2.95–3.00 and 3.04–3.06. Current price sits just above the lower node and pressing the upper node. Acceptance above 3.06 would shift POC higher, paving room to 3.11–3.12.
• OBV/CMF/MFI (qualitative): Gradual improvement since Sep-7; no divergence flags present at current levels.

6. Ichimoku perspective (Daily)

• Price above Tenkan and near/above Kijun: bullish tilt. Flat Kijun likely near ~2.97–3.00 forms a magnet if bulls falter, but holding above it continues the short-term uptrend.
• Cloud (Kumo): Price is either near the top or above a thin cloud; future Kumo likely twisting upward if price closes >3.10 for several sessions. Chikou span nearing clearance; a breakout improves confluence.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• From Jul high (~3.65) to Sep low (~2.75), the 38.2% retracement ≈ 3.094, 50% ≈ 3.20, 61.8% ≈ 3.306.
• Current price sits just below 0.382 (3.09–3.10), which aligns with R2 classical pivot zone (3.11–3.12). A daily close over 3.12 opens 3.20 (50%) and 3.30–3.31 (61.8%) over the next legs.

8. Pivots (Classic) based on Sep-15

• H=3.0665, L=2.9609, C=2.9971.
• Pivot P ≈ 3.008; R1 ≈ 3.055; R2 ≈ 3.114; R3 ≈ 3.161; S1 ≈ 2.9498; S2 ≈ 2.9026.
• Intraday high today was ~3.057 (kissed R1). R2 aligns with the Fib 0.382/overhead supply band; it’s a logical 24h upside target.

9. Patterns and price action

• Ascending triangle: Rising lows into a horizontal cap ~3.10–3.12. These structures often break higher when tests compress under resistance with shallow dips.
• Candlestick behavior (Daily): Recent series of higher closes with small-bodied candles and lower wicks show dip demand. No exhaustion wick evident near current levels.
• Heikin-Ashi (qualitative): Consecutive green bars since early last week; small upper wicks imply constructive trend.

10. Statistical/mean reversion and regression

• 20D mean at 2.916, current +0.13 above mean; z-score modest (+1 if σ~0.12–0.13). This is not stretched; room to move toward +2σ (~3.17) if momentum expands. However, first friction appears at R2/0.382 (3.11–3.12).
• Linear regression slope from Sep-1: Positive; price oscillations remain above the median line. A pullback to the regression mid (~3.02–3.04 intraday) is buyable.

11. Risk framing and scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Bullish continuation (≈55–60%): Hold 3.00–3.03 on dips, rotate through 3.055 (R1) and test 3.11–3.12 (R2/Fib 0.382). A 24h close near 3.08–3.10 is plausible.
• Range churn (≈25–30%): Fail to clear 3.055–3.06, drift between 2.99 and 3.06 as liquidity builds. Net unchanged to slight positive close ~3.03–3.05.
• Bearish fade (≈15%): Lose 3.00 and pivot P (~3.008) on rising sell volume, probing 2.95 (S1) and worst-case 2.90 (S2) if broader crypto risk-off hits. Probability lower absent external shock.

12. Confluence summary

• Supports: 3.00–3.03 (VWAP/10H EMA/pivot P), 2.97 (hourly structure), 2.95 (S1/daily node).
• Resistances: 3.055–3.06 (R1/overnight swing high), 3.10–3.12 (R2 + Fib 0.382 + horizontal supply), 3.16 (R3), 3.20 (Fib 50%).
• Indicators mostly constructive: Price above 10/20 SMA, RSI improving, MACD positive, ascending triangle pressing overhead. The first real test is 3.055–3.12.

13. Strategy and execution plan

• Primary tactic: Buy the dip near VWAP/pivot P confluence to ride the likely test of R1/R2. That optimizes risk-to-reward and avoids chasing into resistance.
• Entry zone: 3.02–3.04; optimal trigger 3.032 (limit) to align with intraday mean reversion and trend support.
• Take-profit: 3.11–3.12 (R2/Fib 0.382 and visible supply). Target 3.114 for precision and liquidity.
• Protective stop (for risk control; not part of asked output): ~2.988 (just under 3.00/structural shelf), or conservative 2.949 (S1) depending on risk tolerance.
• R:R illustration (with SL 2.988): Entry 3.032 → TP 3.114 = +0.082; risk 3.032→2.988 = −0.044; R:R ≈ 1.9:1. Good quality for a 24h swing.

14. What would invalidate

• A decisive hourly close below 2.988 with rising volume would negate the ascending triangle, shifting bias to neutral/bearish toward 2.95/2.90.
• Failure on another attempt above 3.06 accompanied by bearish divergence across RSI/MACD on the hourly would argue for taking profit earlier and reassessing.

24-hour forecast

• Expected range: 2.99 to 3.12, with a bullish skew.
• Bias: Grind through 3.055 (R1) and attempt 3.11–3.12 (R2). Base case close: 3.08–3.10 if momentum persists; otherwise 3.03–3.05 if range-bound.

Bottom line

• Setup quality: Above-average for a tactical long. Multiple supports under price, rising short-term momentum, and a nearby but testable resistance band.
• Actionable plan: Buy near 3.032; aim to exit 3.114 within 24 hours, manage downside under ~2.988 if using stops.