XRP Price Analysis Powered by AI

XRP stalls beneath 3.13 pivot: fading the failed breakout for a 24h pullback

Step-by-step multi-timeframe technical analysis (24h horizon)

Regime: XRP has been in a medium-term uptrend since the Sep 1 low (~2.754), printing higher highs/lows. Near-term, price is pressing into a well-defined resistance shelf around 3.12–3.135 where multiple tests failed intraday.
Current price: 3.1027, just below resistance and slightly above clustered supports at 3.06–3.08 and 3.00–3.02.
Volume: Typical for recent weeks; no decisive expansion confirming a breakout today. Today’s intraday pushes above 3.13 lacked follow-through.

20D SMA ≈ 2.94 (est.), price > 20SMA: short-term bullish bias.
50D SMA ≈ ~3.05–3.10 (est.), current price at/just above: medium-term trend constructive but not extended.
9D EMA likely ~3.05–3.07, price > 9EMA: immediate momentum positive.
Price structure: Since Sep 7, ascending sequence; today shows a sequence of intraday lower highs (3.135 → 3.130 → 3.128 → 3.118), signaling near-term supply at 3.12–3.135.

Daily RSI(14) ≈ 75 (est.), overbought zone; increases probability of near-term pause/pullback at resistance.
Hourly RSI: Mid-to-high range early session, easing toward neutral as price stalled; confirms waning momentum under resistance.
Stochastic (daily): Likely >80 and curling; early sell signal risk.
MACD (daily): Above zero with positive histogram but flattening; momentum still up, yet diminishing near resistance.

ATR(14) daily ≈ 0.11–0.13; expected 24h envelope from current 3.10 is roughly 2.99–3.23.
Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ~2.94, upper band likely ~3.24–3.26; price is below the upper band, allowing upside if breakout occurs, but near-term is pinned under a horizontal lid at 3.13.

Resistance: 3.12–3.135 (intraday highs and pivot confluence), 3.177–3.18 (R2/past high cluster), 3.20–3.22 (round/overhead supply), 3.25–3.28 (August shelf).
Support: 3.06–3.08 (today’s intraday floors), 3.03–3.05 (recent retests), 2.99–3.01 (38.2–50% retracement pocket of the Sep upswing), 2.95 (daily pivot congestion).

VWAP (session, est.) ~3.11; price slipped marginally below by the close, indicating mild intraday distribution above spot. Under-VWAP closes near resistance favor a short mean-reversion attempt.
Upper wicks on 3.13–3.135 prints denote supply absorption without trend acceleration.

P ≈ 3.060; R1 ≈ 3.131; R2 ≈ 3.177; S1 ≈ 3.014; S2 ≈ 2.943.
Today respected R1 (3.131) multiple times and failed to extend to R2, raising odds of a rotation back toward the P to S1 zone if momentum continues to fade.

Swing: 2.7537 → 3.183; 38.2% pullback ≈ 3.019; 50% ≈ 2.968.
Price retraced to ~3.00–3.03 and bounced—bullish medium-term. Near-term, the 3.12 neckline (cup-and-handle style) must break with volume; failure at neckline often triggers a shallow dip to reload (3.05–3.08).

Price above cloud; Kijun/Tenkan likely supportive around 3.03–3.06. Bullish regime intact, but a pullback to the Kijun/Tenkan area is typical after repeated resistance taps.

Cup-and-handle read: Cup from late Aug to Sep 12, handle around Sep 14–16; neckline ~3.12–3.13. Break and hold above 3.135 with volume targets 3.17 then 3.24–3.26. Failure to break immediately often sees a retest of 3.05–3.08 before a cleaner attempt.
Intraday rising wedge/rounded top characteristics into 3.13 followed by lower highs; often resolves into a minor pullback.

Multiple micro-probes above 3.13 were sold; no obvious stop-run continuation. Suggests liquidity above 3.13 remains defended for now. A quick liquidity sweep into 3.135–3.145 and rejection would be an ideal short trigger.

From the 2.997 handle low, a 5-wave micro advance likely topped near 3.13; current action resembles an a-b-c pullback in progress or a wave-4 pause. Probability favors a dip to 3.05–3.06 to complete the corrective structure before any renewed push.

Base case (55%): Consolidation-to-dip. Early-session bounce into 3.115–3.125 stalls; price fades to 3.05–3.07, possibly wicking 3.04–3.05. Range likely 3.04–3.12.
Bull breakout (30%): Clean push/hold above 3.135 on rising volume, quick tag of 3.17–3.18 (R2), extension risk to 3.20–3.22 if momentum expands.
Bear extension (15%): Risk-off or broad crypto softness drives a fuller mean reversion toward 3.02–3.03, tail risk to 3.00–3.015 (S1 vicinity).

Confluences favor a tactical short-on-strength into 3.12–3.13 given: daily RSI ~75, repeated intraday failures at R1, hourly lower highs, and under-VWAP close. Targeting a pullback into the 3.04–3.06 demand pocket aligns with P/S1 bands and tenkan/kijun supports.
Alternative bullish contingency: If 3.135 breaks and holds 30–60 minutes with expanding volume, the short thesis is invalidated; momentum likely carries price toward 3.17–3.18. That’s a separate breakout long setup (not the primary call here).

Entry (sell limit): 3.118–3.122, placed above spot to sell into a minor relief bounce. Optimal single price: 3.118.
Take profit (TP): 3.048 (near lower end of the 3.04–3.06 demand zone; ahead of the 3.03 congestion to ensure fills).
Stop (for risk management, not part of output): 3.142–3.148 (above the 3.135 sweep and today’s intraday highs). Risk ≈ 0.026–0.030 vs reward ≈ 0.070, R:R ≈ 2.3–2.7.

Expected range: 3.04–3.17.
Skew: Slightly negative for the next 12–24h as momentum stalls under 3.13; dip to 3.05 ±0.02 is favored before another attempt.
Validation: Failure to bounce to 3.115–3.125 before fading still acceptable; a direct slip under 3.095 increases odds of tagging 3.06–3.07 swiftly.

Conclusion

Medium-term trend is up, but immediate setup is a fade of resistance with a tactical short aimed at 3.05±. The path of least resistance over the next 24h is a modest pullback rather than an immediate breakout, unless 3.135 is reclaimed with participation.