XRP Coils Under $3: Descending Triangle Set-Up — Short the Break to 2.90

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bearish drift with a high chance of a range break to the downside if 2.965–2.970 gives way; expected range 2.90–3.03. Base case: liquidity sweep below 2.95 toward 2.90–2.91, then stabilization.
• Trade thesis: Price is coiling directly under the 3.00 round number and below short-term means, with a visible series of lower highs since early August. Multiple tools cluster support at 2.95–2.97; repeated tests on declining momentum favor a breakdown. Best risk-adjusted setup is a momentum short on loss of 2.964 with a take‑profit near the 78.6% retracement/volume node around 2.90.

Multi-timeframe technical analysis (daily, 4h/1h)

1. Market structure and trend

• Daily structure: After the July spike to 3.65 (7/18), XRP carved a broad range and has been compressing since mid‑August. Lower highs: 3.375 (8/8) → 3.324 (8/13) → ~3.29 (8/8–8/12 cluster) → 3.14–3.16 (9/12–9/18). Lows: 2.706 (9/1) followed by higher low band 2.75–2.82 (late Aug), then persistent retests of 2.95–2.97 in mid‑September. This maps as a descending triangle: falling trendline of highs, flat base ~2.95–2.97.
• Intraday structure (hourly 9/20): Tight coil 2.973–3.010 most of the session. Late hours pushed price to 2.976–2.978. Multiple lower high prints intraday under VWAP suggest passive supply above 2.99–3.00.
• Implication: In sideways regimes the base breaks in the direction of the prevailing lower‑high pressure ~55–60% of the time; repeated tests of 2.95–2.97 increase breakdown odds.

2. Key levels (confluence)

• Resistance:
  • 3.00–3.02: Round number, intraday VWAP and supply cap from today’s 1h highs.
  • 3.04–3.06: 1h/4h supply shelf and Tenkan/Kijun congestion (see Ichimoku).
  • 3.12–3.15: Daily supply and 38.2% retracement of the larger 7/18 high → 8/19 low leg (≈3.157).
• Support:
  • 2.97–2.965: Today’s coil floor and hourly micro-base; also near 20‑day SMA pivot band.
  • 2.95: 61.8% retracement of the 8/19 low (2.8529) → 9/12 high (3.1076). High‑quality technical pivot.
  • 2.91–2.90: 78.6% of the same swing (≈2.907); prior demand and likely volume node/take‑profit magnet.
  • 2.85–2.83: Daily shelf and 8/19 close/8/29 area; deeper target if momentum accelerates.

3. Moving averages

• 5‑day SMA ≈ 3.034 (avg of 9/16–9/20 closes). Price 2.977 is below: short‑term bearish momentum.
• 10‑day SMA ≈ 3.047 (avg of 9/11–9/20). Price below: near‑term trend negative.
• 20‑day SMA ≈ 2.956 (avg of 9/1–9/20). Price slightly above: medium‑term still supportive.
• Read: Price is sandwiched between a supportive 20SMA and downward‑pressing 5/10SMAs. In such “pinch,” the first decisive break (either through 2.956 or back above 3.03) tends to set the next 24–48h direction. With price under 5/10SMAs, immediate risk skews down.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (approx): ~62. This reflects the rally from early September; however, the last few sessions show RSI rolling over from low‑60s, not yet oversold. Space exists to move down toward RSI 50 without stretching.
• 1h RSI: Oscillating sub‑50 during the late session, consistent with intraday lower highs. No strong bullish divergence at the latest equal‑lows cluster (2.975–2.978), so breakdown risk persists.
• Stoch RSI (qualitative): Resetting from mid‑range; no strong buy signal.

5. MACD (daily and 4h)

• Daily MACD has flattened after a mid‑September up‑phase; histogram slipping toward/under zero with a nascent bearish cross signal. This typically precedes 1–3 sessions of downside drift in range conditions.
• 4h MACD already crossed down earlier this week; momentum inertia favors a test of lower supports.

6. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) (approx): ~0.098. Translating to a plausible next‑day span of about 3.0–3.3% either direction. From a breakdown trigger at ~2.964, a 0.06–0.08 move to 2.90–2.905 is a 0.6–0.8 ATR target—achievable within 24 hours without trend acceleration.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ≈ 2.956. Bands narrowing over the past week (volatility contraction). Price pinned near the midline to lower half, implying breakout potential; alignment with a triangle base bolsters the probability of a downward expansion if 2.965 goes.

7. Ichimoku cloud (daily approximations)

• Tenkan (9‑period mid): ≈ 3.07.
• Kijun (26‑period mid): ≈ 3.00–3.01.
• Senkou A (future cloud): ≈ 3.04; Senkou B likely above that given August’s higher highs.
• Current price 2.98 < Kijun and well < Tenkan, and likely beneath a flat cloud edge ahead—bearish/neutral. Flat Kijun near 3.00 acts as magnet/resistance; failure to reclaim/hold above it generally leads to tests of prior swing supports (2.95 → 2.90).

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing: 7/18 high 3.65 → 8/19 low 2.8529.
  • 38.2% retracement from low ≈ 3.157; XRP failed to sustain above this zone in September—macro corrective cap remains intact.
• Local swing: 8/19 low 2.8529 → 9/12 high 3.1076.
  • 61.8% ≈ 2.950—current floor.
  • 78.6% ≈ 2.907—logical next magnet if 2.95 fails. This aligns with our take‑profit.

9. Volume and order flow (inference from provided volumes)

• Daily volume cooled from early September’s push; yesterday (9/19) printed ~5.08B, at/below the recent average. Lack of heavy dip‑buying volume on tests of 2.97 indicates fragility of support.
• Intraday prints showed notable activity on the hour ending 16:00 and 20:00 UTC, with sellers absorbing bids below 3.00 repeatedly.
• Volume profile inference: A prominent node/POC near 3.00; sub‑node near 2.90–2.91. Once through 2.965–2.95, a quick vacuum move toward 2.90 is likely before liquidity thickens.

10. Pattern recognition

• Descending triangle confirmed by lower highs since 8/8 and a flat base at ~2.95–2.97.
• Candlesticks (daily): Mixed small real bodies and upper wicks near 3.04–3.08 in recent days—sign of supply. Today’s intraday narrow‑spread bars under 3.00 show absorption.
• S/R flips: 3.00–3.01 acted as support earlier in the week; now it caps price—bearish flip.

11. Mean reversion vs breakout context

• With 20SMA just below price, mean reversion would argue for a minor bounce from ~2.956 back to 2.99–3.02. However, repeated tests compressing into a well‑watched base tend to end with a stop‑run below the base before any bounce. Given 5/10SMAs pressing from above and intraday momentum weak, odds favor the stop‑run first, bounce second.

12. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Bearish base‑break (primary, ~55–60%): Lose 2.965/2.95; swift slide into 2.91–2.90 (0.6–0.8 ATR). Partial profit taking expected there; potential overshoot to 2.88 if broader market wobbles.
• Range hold and mean reversion (secondary, ~30–35%): Defend 2.95–2.96; grind back above 3.00; squeeze toward 3.03–3.06 where Kijun/Tenkan and prior supply await. Without strong volume, upside likely capped sub‑3.08.
• Bullish reclaim (low probability, ~10–15%): Fast reclaim and hold above 3.06 on 1h closes flips bias to 3.12–3.15 retest; not base case given current evidence.

13. Risk management and trade plan (execution details)

• Entry logic: Use a sell‑stop to enter only on momentum confirmation below the micro‑floor. Suggested trigger: 2.964 (beneath today’s 1h cluster and the 2.965–2.970 liquidity band), to avoid repeated false taps at 2.973–2.978.
• Take‑profit (target): 2.905–2.900 zone (78.6% retracement confluence; historical node). We select 2.905 to clip before the round number.
• Invalidation (stop, not part of the requested output but critical): 3.012–3.018 above intraday VWAP/3.00 supply shelf and above the latest 1h lower‑highs. That gives an R:R of roughly 1:1.5 to 1:2 depending on stop placement.
• Add‑on/scale plan: Optional add on a retest of 2.95 as resistance after the initial break (“break‑retest‑continue”).

Time-based expectation (next 24h)

• Asia open through early EU: Increased probability of the base test; if liquidity thins, a quick flush to 2.92–2.90.
• US session: Potential stabilization or bounce attempt from 2.90 back toward 2.95; capped likely sub‑3.00 unless strong market‑wide risk-on flows appear.

Confluence summary

• Bearish: Descending triangle, price under 5/10SMAs, Kijun/Tenkan overhead, 1h VWAP/3.00 acting as supply, MACD rollover, repeated taps at 2.97 without lift.
• Neutral/Balancing: Price still slightly above 20SMA; daily RSI not weak (~62). That’s why the plan seeks a confirmed break rather than pre‑emptive shorting at market.
• Bullish invalidation: 1h acceptance >3.01–3.03 would likely force a squeeze to 3.06.

Bottom line

• The highest‑quality asymmetric setup given current prints is a momentum short that triggers only if the floor breaks. Expect a 0.6–0.8 ATR continuation to ~2.90, then reassess.

Note: This is a technical view over a 24h horizon and not financial advice. Always size positions appropriately and consider broader market correlations (BTC/ETH risk tone) which can accelerate or blunt the move.