XRP coils under $3: Descending triangle favors a 2.95 test within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bearish-to-range with a test of the 2.95–2.96 support more likely than a sustained break above 3.00–3.04.
• Structure: Intraday descending triangle under the 3.00 round number; lower highs and recurring support taps around 2.965–2.975.
• Plan: Sell the rip into 2.99–3.00 (supply zone). Target the liquidity pool near 2.94–2.95. Invalidation above 3.03–3.04.

Multi-timeframe price structure

• Higher timeframe (daily): After the July spike to ~3.65 and August retracement to ~2.75–2.85, XRP has been consolidating in a broad 2.85–3.15 range. Over the last two weeks, price carved a shallow drift down from the mid-Sept local highs (~3.12) to ~2.98 now. This is a neutral-to-slightly-bearish consolidation above late-August lows.
• Medium/short timeframe (4H/1H proxy from hourly feed): Today’s action shows a sequence of lower highs (3.0128 → 3.0124 → ~3.001 → 2.988 → 2.986 → 2.984) while support keeps getting probed (2.9669, 2.9657, 2.9582). That’s a textbook descending triangle just under a psychological pivot ($3.00), favoring a downside probe of the horizontal base.
• Key levels:
  • Resistance/supply: 2.985–3.005 (intraday supply and VWAP vicinity), 3.035–3.05 (daily 38.2% retrace cluster and prior pivot), 3.08–3.12 (recent swing supply).
  • Support/demand: 2.965–2.975 (intraday shelf), 2.94–2.95 (daily pivot lows), 2.90, 2.85 (major).

Trend and moving averages

• Daily 20SMA (approx): ~2.97. Price (~2.977) is hugging/slightly above the 20SMA midline, consistent with range conditions.
• Daily 50SMA (approx): ~3.05. Price is below the 50SMA, keeping the medium-term bias subdued and capping rallies into 3.03–3.08.
• Hourly MAs: Price trades under the 20/50-hour MAs (clustered around ~2.985–2.995), indicating intraday sellers control unless reclaimed. Interpretation: With price below the 50SMA and under intraday MAs, bounces into 2.99–3.00 face supply.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (daily, qualitative): Mid-40s to low-50s regime—neutral/slightly bearish. Plenty of room both ways, but no overbought/oversold extremes.
• RSI (hourly, qualitative): Mild bullish divergence potential after the 17:00 lower low (2.958) not followed by a breakdown; however, subsequent lower highs suggest divergence is weak and better expressed as mean-reversion rather than trend reversal.
• MACD (daily): Histogram has been easing since mid-September; signal line crossover risk to the downside or a flat, indecisive regime. Momentum not convincingly bullish.
• MACD (hourly): Negative but flattening; consistent with fade-the-rip conditions. Interpretation: Oscillators support a sell-the-rally setup rather than chasing downside at current prints.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Midline ~20SMA ~2.97; estimated band width suggests lower band near ~2.79–2.82 and upper near ~3.14–3.15. Price rides the mid-to-lower half, consistent with a gentle bearish drift inside a range.
• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~0.08–0.11. Expect intraday swings of 2.7–3.7% around the mean—adequate to traverse 2.99 → 2.95 in one session. Interpretation: Enough realized volatility to reach the 2.94–2.96 pocket within 24h, even if we first retest 2.99–3.00.

Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price likely under/near kijun with a flat kijun/SSA acting as a magnet near ~3.00–3.02, with cloud resistance overhead into ~3.05–3.08.
• Hourly: Price below tenkan/kijun most of the session; flat kijun around ~2.985–2.99 often attracts a tag before trend continuation. Interpretation: A reflex bid into the flat kijun/VWAP zone near 2.99 can set the next sell entry.

VWAP and intraday mean

• Session VWAP (qualitative): Around the 2.985–2.995 band. Price has frequently traded below the mean, and rallies to VWAP have been sold. Reclaim and hold above VWAP would be the first sign bears are losing grip; until then, VWAP is a tactical sell area.

Volume, OBV, and participation

• Daily volumes have been moderate and compressing into the weekend; today’s hourly prints show heavier activity on pushes into lows (e.g., 17:00 low at 2.958 with notable volume), consistent with liquidity hunts but not yet a trend reversal.
• OBV (qualitative): Sideways to slightly down since mid-Sept, reinforcing distribution within range. Interpretation: No volume confirmation for a sustained upside break; supply persists at ~3.00.

Market structure and patterns

• Descending triangle (intraday): Lower highs under 3.00 with a flat-ish base 2.96–2.97. Measured move of the last swing height (~0.03–0.05) projects to ~2.93–2.94 on a decisive break; even without a full break, tapping 2.95 is statistical.
• Range behavior: Mean-reversion dominates; efficient tactic is to fade into supply and cover into demand.

Fibonacci mapping (recent leg)

• From 3.129 (Sep 12–13 zone) to 2.979 (Sep 20 low):
  • 38.2% ≈ 3.035, 50% ≈ 3.054, 61.8% ≈ 3.072. Recent rallies stalled below the 38.2% at ~3.03–3.05. This keeps the bear-retracement framework intact; sub-3.03 rejections favor retests of lows.

Liquidity and stop zones

• Resting liquidity likely clusters:
  • Above 3.00/3.01 (prior failed break levels) and especially above 3.03–3.04 (recent swing caps).
  • Below 2.96 and 2.95 (multiple taps) then deeper at 2.94/2.93. Tactic: Let price wick into 2.99–3.00 (liquidity sweep toward round number/VWAP), then fade with tight invalidation above 3.03.

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (55%): Early drift or snapback to 2.99–3.00 fails; price rotates down to 2.95 with a possible wick to 2.94; closes back near 2.96–2.98.
• Range case (30%): Chop between 2.965 and 3.00 persists; no decisive break; scalpers dominate.
• Upside break (15%): Clean reclaim of 3.00, acceptance above 3.03 unlocks 3.05–3.08; triangle invalidated.

Risk management and execution

• Entry: Use a limit sell in the 2.992–2.999 zone (preferred: 2.995) where VWAP/MA cluster and overhead supply align.
• Stop (invalidation): 3.033–3.040 (above the 38.2% retrace and recent swing capping); suggested hard stop 3.033.
• Take profit: 2.948 (front-run the 2.94–2.95 liquidity pool). Extended TP2 (discretionary): 2.925 if a momentum break unfolds.
• R:R (to TP1): Entry 2.995, SL 3.033 (risk 0.038), TP 2.948 (reward 0.047) → ~1.24:1. If price spikes to 3.000–3.005, R:R improves.

Catalyst sensitivity

• Weekend liquidity thinning favors stop-hunts and mean-reversion. Into Monday, increased participation can fuel a directional push; structure favors a downside test first unless 3.03 is reclaimed with force.

Bottom line

• The confluence of a descending intraday structure beneath the $3 pivot, rejection at the 38.2% retracement zone, sub-50SMA positioning, and persistent VWAP resistance points to a tactical short-on-rips setup over the next 24 hours. Aim to sell near 2.99–3.00 and cover into 2.94–2.95. Invalidate above 3.03–3.04.