Short the Ripple: Fading XRP’s 0.382 Retrace Into 2.89 Resistance

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Short-term intraday momentum up inside a broader, still-bearish daily trend. Base case path: a push into 2.88–2.91 (0.382 retrace/nearby pivots), then rejection back toward 2.81–2.80. Secondary path: sustained squeeze toward 2.93–2.98 if 2.90–2.91 breaks on volume.
• Trade idea (24h horizon): Sell the rip into 2.885–2.905 resistance. Target the prior demand shelf around 2.81 (front-run deeper support at 2.79–2.78). Invalidation on a sustained break >2.94.

Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Weekly/daily structure: From the July top (~3.65), XRP has carved a sequence of lower highs since mid-September. Recent swing high (Sep 12–18 region) ~3.13 and swing low (Sep 25) ~2.74. The bounce off 2.74 is corrective so far; price remains below key moving averages and below the daily value area created in early September (~2.95–3.05), keeping the medium-term bias cautiously bearish.
• Daily market structure: Lows – 2.85 (Sep 22), 2.74 (Sep 25). Highs – 3.03 (Sep 24 LH), then a series of sub-3.05 LHs. Yesterday’s close 2.8077, today’s print 2.8437 shows a modest higher low intraday, but still beneath prior supply at 2.89–2.93. Until 2.93–2.97 is reclaimed, rallies are sellable.
• Hourly structure (today’s session): Series of higher lows from ~2.77 to ~2.84 with steady grind and narrow candles, indicative of controlled short covering rather than impulsive buying. Into the close, price tagged the session high (2.845) — a constructive micro signal, but into nearby daily resistance overhead.

Support/resistance map (confluence)

• Immediate resistance: 2.885–2.905 (0.382 Fib of 3.137→2.742 swing = 2.893; daily pivot R2 from prior day ≈2.8597 nearby; cluster of prior closes 2.86–2.90). Above that, 2.93–2.98 (0.5–0.618 retrace: 2.939/2.986; heavy supply and 20D mid-band region). Stronger cap 3.02–3.05 (recent value area edge and breakdown zone).
• Immediate support: 2.81–2.80 (hourly demand and prior close cluster), then 2.79–2.78 (daily shelf), 2.74–2.70 (cycle low and lower BB vicinity).

Moving averages and trend filters

• 10D SMA ≈ 2.873 (price 2.844 < 10D): mild bearish on short-term basis but narrowing gap.
• 20D SMA ≈ 2.958 (price < 20D): medium-term bearish; price sits in the lower third of the 20D Bollinger envelope.
• 50D SMA (approx) ≈ 3.05–3.10 (price < 50D): broader trend still down from the summer peak; rallies into 3.00–3.10 likely face supply.
• EMA ribbon (5/8/13/21 est.): 5/8 EMA have curled up on hourly, but the 21/34 EMA on daily remain above, acting as dynamic resistance into 2.89–2.95.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 39–40: below neutral, not oversold — room for a corrective pop but consistent with selling on strength.
• Stochastic (daily) crossing up from low-mid band: supports a near-term bounce into resistance, then decision.
• MACD (daily) negative but histogram tightening toward zero: suggests waning downside momentum and potential for short-term rallies that likely stall below 2.95 unless volume expands.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20D): Mid ≈ 2.96, Lower ≈ 2.72, Upper ≈ 3.20 (approx). Price is rising off the lower third toward the mid-band. Mean-reversion favors a test into ~2.89–2.96 before notable supply reappears.
• ATR(14) daily ≈ 0.16–0.18: one-day swing potential around ±0.16 from entry. From 2.89, a 0.5–0.6×ATR pullback targets ~2.81; a full ATR squeeze risks 3.05 test if resistance fails.

Ichimoku

• Tenkan (9) ≈ 2.86; Kijun (26) ≈ 2.94. Price is slightly below Tenkan and clearly below Kijun.
• Cloud forward spans: Senkou A ≈ 2.90, Senkou B ≈ 3.18. Price below the Kumo with a flat/descending cloud overhead — bearish regime. Expect resistance when approaching Tenkan/Kijun confluence (2.86–2.94).

Fibonacci and measured moves

• Swing: 3.137 → 2.742.
  • 38.2%: 2.893 (first resistance; aligns with Tenkan and local supply).
  • 50%: 2.939; 61.8%: 2.986 (deeper bounce caps).
• Measured pullback from 2.928 (Sep 24 close) to 2.742 (Sep 25 low) ≈ 0.186; a 50% retrace of that move targets ~2.835–2.84 (already achieved), next magnet 2.89 (0.618 of that sub-swing).

Volume, VWAP, and market profile

• Volume: Post-selloff volumes have contracted on the bounce — characteristic of corrective rallies. Today’s uptick is moderate, not impulsive.
• Monthly VWAP (Sep) est. around 2.95; price below monthly VWAP — sellers retain control.
• Volume profile for Sep: POC/acceptance near 2.96–3.00; low-volume node around 2.88–2.90. Expect price to probe into 2.88–2.90 and respond with rejection unless demand increases materially.

Candlestick/price action patterns

• Daily bars: Long lower tail on Sep 25 (capitulation probe) followed by small-bodied recovery candles — classic bear-bounce behavior.
• Intraday (hourly): Grinding channel higher with small bodies; top of channel coincides with 2.88–2.90. Any hourly reversal candle (pin bar/engulfing) in that band would confirm a fade setup.

Pivot levels (classic from Sep 27):

• Pivot P ≈ 2.800; R1 ≈ 2.8336; R2 ≈ 2.8597; S1 ≈ 2.7738. Price has advanced through R1 and is approaching R2; fading near/just above R2 aligns with confluence.

DeMark/Sequential (qualitative)

• After a completed downside sequence into Sep 25, the current up-count is early/mid-stage. Typically, in a downtrend, these reset rallies stall near TDST/resistance bands — again around 2.89–2.93.

Elliott wave (heuristic)

• From 3.13 to 2.74 as a 5-wave down or A leg; present bounce likely a B/2 wave toward 0.382–0.618 (2.89–2.99). A subsequent C/3 wave down would target retests of 2.78–2.74 if resistance holds.

Statistical/mean reversion context

• Current price is ~3.9% below 20D SMA and ~1% below 10D SMA. Historically in the last quarter, pushes from the lower third of the 20D BB to the mid-band often retrace before reaching the mid-band when the 50D trend is down. Probability favors a test into 2.88–2.91 followed by pullback.

Risk scenarios and triggers (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Grind up into 2.885–2.905, failure signal on hourly (bearish wick/engulfing), fade to 2.81–2.80 where buyers defend.
• Bullish squeeze (30%): Clean hourly close above 2.91 then 2.94 (Kijun/0.5 fib). Momentum follow-through to 2.97–3.00 where heavier supply likely caps.
• Bearish acceleration (15%): Fail to reach 2.88; early rejection near 2.86 with risk-off tape; quick test of 2.79 then 2.75.

Trade plan (24h tactical short)

• Rationale: Confluence of resistance at 2.88–2.90 (0.382 fib, Ichimoku Tenkan, R2 vicinity, LVN) inside a medium-term downtrend with RSI sub-50 and price under 20D/50D MAs.
• Entry: Scale in 2.885–2.905. Use a limit order slightly below the 0.382 at 2.889 to improve fill probability.
• Take profit (24h): 2.807 (above 2.80 demand to increase hit-rate; aligns with hourly shelf and ~0.5×ATR move).
• Invalidation/stop (discipline, not a hard requirement here): 2.943–2.95 (above 0.5 fib/Kijun and through local structure). This yields R:R ≈ 1.5–1.7 depending on exact fill.
• Optional add: If a rejection wick prints between 2.895–2.905 with rising volume, consider adding a small tranche; if price slices through 2.91 without reaction, stand down.

What would flip the bias to long?

• Sustained acceptance above 2.94 with rising volume and hourly closes above 2.95 (monthly VWAP region). Then buy dips toward 2.92 for a run at 2.98–3.02. Until then, rallies are suspect.

24-hour price path forecast

• Most likely sequence: 2.85→2.89 test early US overnight/Asia, micro break above into 2.90, quick rejection, drift lower to 2.82–2.81, with late-session probing 2.80 if broader crypto risk is soft. Range expectation: 2.78–2.92, center around 2.85.

Risk management notes

• Crypto can overshoot; if entering early, keep size modest until confirmation (rejection signal) in the 2.89–2.90 band. Respect invalidation above ~2.94; avoid shorting a breakout with volume expansion.