XRP poised to punch through $3: buy-the-dip into the 0.618–0.786 “golden pocket” with a 24h push toward 3.07

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish (buy-the-dip). Expect a continuation of today’s impulse toward the 0.618–0.786 retracement cluster (2.98–3.07), provided 2.91–2.93 holds on pullbacks. Primary intraday path: shallow retest of 2.93 area, then a push through 2.97–3.00 to 3.04–3.08.
• Key levels: Support 2.90–2.93 (intraday VWAP/1h demand), 2.86 (daily value area high), 2.82 (pivot), 2.74–2.78 (swing low shelf). Resistance 2.97–3.00 (0.618 retrace + psychological), 3.04–3.08 (0.786 retrace/target), 3.13 (daily resistance), 3.18–3.20 (supply), 3.28–3.32 (major).
• Plan: Buy limit on dip near 2.93 with target 3.07 (first objective within 24h). If momentum breakout occurs first, adaptive add-on above 2.982 is valid.

Market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily: After a late-September selloff to 2.74–2.78 (9/25 low 2.7423), XRP put in a higher low on 9/30 (2.8183) and printed a higher high today vs. 9/29, establishing the first HL/HH sequence since mid-September. Structure is transitioning from down to neutral-to-up. The 9/22–9/25 capitulation created a demand shelf; price is now rotating back into the prior 2.95–3.05 value area.
• 4h/1h (using the hourly tape): Clear intraday impulse began at 08:00 UTC with a strong expansion candle and elevated volume, taking price from ~2.86 to ~2.95 and holding above 2.93 on multiple tests (10:00–18:00). Into the close, price pressed 2.958 and consolidated just below 2.95–2.96—a constructive flag under resistance.
• Market profile/value: The most recent high-volume node sits 2.85–2.90; above it there’s a local low-volume pocket 2.95–3.02 that often accelerates when breached. Acceptance above 3.00 opens a quick run toward 3.07–3.13 where supply thickens.

Moving averages and trend filters

• SMA/EMA stack (daily, approximations from closes):
  • 20-SMA ≈ 2.95–2.98. Price is now testing/reclaiming the mid-band, a typical pathfinder for mean-reversion-to-trend moves.
  • 50-SMA is likely around ~3.05–3.10 (given August highs and September mid prints); price sits just below it—typical first upside magnet during recovery.
  • 9/21-EMA: 9-EMA rising and likely crossed above price yesterday; today’s close above the 9-EMA with the 21-EMA flattening suggests early bullish inflection. A 9>21 bullish cross would further confirm if follow-through occurs this week.
• DMI/ADX: ADX contracted during September’s chop, indicating weak trend. +DI is curling up and threatening a cross above −DI—consistent with a fresh, but still fragile, up-leg. This favors buying pullbacks rather than chasing extended candles.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI (14, daily): Likely moved from high 30s/low 40s post 9/25 toward ~50–52. This is a classic bear-to-neutral transition; room remains to reach 60–65 if price clears 3.00–3.05. No bearish divergence into today’s close on the daily; on 1h, momentum cooled without making a lower low—bullish continuation setup.
• Stochastic (daily): Crossing up from mid-zone after oversold bounce, supportive of a 1–3 session up-swing.
• MACD (daily): Histogram rising toward/through zero; signal line flattening—early-cycle turn. On the 1h, MACD is positive but not extended, consistent with a consolidation-before-next-leg profile.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20, daily): Price reclaimed the mid-band; upper band likely ~3.12–3.16 and lower band ~2.78–2.80. BB width has compressed versus July/Aug; a mid-band reclaim with modest width often precedes a push to the upper band, implying room toward 3.10–3.15 if resistance converts.
• ATR(14, daily): Estimated ~0.12–0.15. A 24h move from 2.94 to 3.05–3.08 is within 1 ATR, hence realistic without requiring a regime change.

Ichimoku (daily, approximations)

• Tenkan (~9-period mid): ≈ 2.94. Price is above/near Tenkan—a bullish early cue.
• Kijun (~26-period mid): ≈ 3.05–3.06. This often acts as a magnet following a Tenkan reclaim. A tag of Kijun aligns with the 0.786 retrace and our 24h target zone.
• Cloud: Span A/B suggest price is still below/into the lower Kumo boundary—resistance overhead into 3.05–3.10. First touch of the cloud often rejects on initial attempt but with today’s momentum, a probe inside is probable.

Fibonacci confluence (recent swing)

• Swing high 9/12 ≈ 3.1293; swing low 9/25 ≈ 2.7423 (range ≈ 0.387). Key retracements from low:
  • 0.382 ≈ 2.8877 (already reclaimed)
  • 0.500 ≈ 2.934 (held intraday as support)
  • 0.618 ≈ 2.980 (immediate resistance)
  • 0.786 ≈ 3.065 (target) This cluster places 2.98–3.07 as the decisive pivot-resistance block. A measured move from the W-bottom (see next) also projects ~3.02–3.07.

Patterns and measured moves

• W-bottom/double-bottom variant: 9/25 low 2.742 and 9/30 HL 2.818 created a rounded W with a neckline around ~2.882–2.90. Break and hold above the neckline projects to ~3.02 (neckline + height ≈ 2.90 + (2.90−2.74) ≈ 3.06 if using the deeper trough). This dovetails with the 0.618–0.786 fib targets.
• Candlestick behavior: Today’s 1h sequence shows a bullish expansion candle at 08:00 followed by a tight flag under resistance with higher lows—classic continuation behavior if the first resistance (2.97–3.00) gives way.

Volume, OBV, VWAP

• Volume (daily): Today’s run to ~6.39B, above recent average and not blow-off. Healthy accumulation footprint, unlike the heavy distribution spikes seen on 9/22–9/25.
• OBV: Rising since 9/26; no new bearish divergence on intraday frames. Suggests inflows are supporting price.
• VWAP: Intraday reclaimed during the 08:00 thrust and then held. Dips toward 2.93–2.94 (near daily mid-band and session VWAP region) are being bought—ideal for a limit entry.

Wyckoff lens

• 9/25 likely marked a Selling Climax (SC), followed by an Automatic Rally (AR) and Secondary Test (ST) around 9/30. Current action looks like a Sign of Strength (SOS) within a nascent re-accumulation range. The next 24h would typically attempt a Last Point of Support (LPS) pullback (2.93 area) before challenging the top of the local range (3.00+).

Elliott wave (tactical)

• The push from 2.82 to 2.95 can be read as wave 1; 2.93–2.94 as wave 2 pullback; a wave 3 extension through 2.98–3.05 is consistent with our target band; a wave 4 pause could retest ~2.98, followed by a wave 5 push toward ~3.08–3.13 if momentum is strong.

Liquidity and order flow zones

• Liquidity pools likely sit just above 2.95–2.97 and at 3.00 (psychological/stop clusters). A sweep/impulse through 3.00 can catalyze a fast run into 3.05–3.08. Below, resting liquidity around 2.90 and 2.86 could be probed only if 2.93 fails; that path is lower probability given current structure.

Descending trendline and supply

• A descending daily trendline from mid-August highs intersects ~2.98–3.02. First test after a higher low often produces partial rejection; hence, taking profits into 3.07 on the first tag is prudent within a 24h window.

Risk management context

• Upside path: 2.93 → 2.98 → 3.04–3.08 (base case, 60–65%). Tail extension 3.10–3.13 if momentum/volume expand.
• Downside path: Failure at 2.97–3.00 with a slip back to 2.90–2.88 (30–35%). Under 2.86, momentum deteriorates and the 2.82–2.78 shelf reopens (low probability in 24h absent fresh risk).
• Optimal stop (not part of the formal fields, but recommended): 2.884 (below 0.382 fib and intraday structure). That yields a reasonable R multiple to a 3.07 TP. Alternate conservative stop: 2.862.

Confluence summary (tools and their impact)

• Trend/MA: Reclaiming 20-SMA and pressing for a 50-SMA tag—bullish mean-reversion impulse.
• RSI/MACD/Stoch: All turning up from neutral/oversold—momentum supportive, not yet overextended.
• Bollinger/ATR: Room to upper band within 1 ATR—target achievable within 24h.
• Ichimoku: Above Tenkan, Kijun magnet at ~3.06—aligns with our TP.
• Fibonacci: 0.618–0.786 cluster sits at 2.98–3.07—our upside map and first profit zone.
• Volume/OBV/VWAP: Positive flow, VWAP reclaim, constructive consolidation—buy pullbacks favored.
• Pattern/Structure: W-bottom with measured move to ~3.02–3.06; 1h bull flag under resistance.
• Liquidity: Stop pockets above 2.97/3.00 likely to fuel continuation.

24-hour price prediction (path-dependent)

• Most likely: Early Asian/London dip tests 2.93 (±0.01), rebounds to challenge 2.98; break/hold over 2.98–3.00 drives to 3.04–3.08 where supply appears. Session close likely 2.99–3.06 depending on how much is absorbed at 3.05.
• Alternate: Failure to reclaim 2.98 leads to range-bound chop 2.90–2.98, with shallow lower wicks into 2.90–2.92, before another attempt higher in 24–48h.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Entry: Buy limit 2.932 to capture the expected LPS-type pullback into prior 1h support and daily mid-band area. If price does not pull back and breaks >2.982, traders may layer a smaller momentum entry with a similar TP but tighter stop.
• Take profit (24h): 3.074 (just below 0.786 fib/Kijun cluster), front-running the likely first-swing sellers.
• Invalidation (guidance): A 1h close below 2.90 or a daily close back under 2.886 would negate the immediate bullish impulse and shift bias back to neutral.

Bottom line

• The confluence of a higher low + 20-SMA reclaim + rising momentum + fib/Kijun magnet supports a buy-the-dip strategy. Expect a test of 2.98–3.00 and a first touch into 3.04–3.08 within the next 24 hours. Taking profits into 3.07 is prudent on first approach, with potential to reassess for a secondary push to 3.10–3.13 if momentum and volume expand.