XRP Coils Under Resistance: Buy the Dip at the Pivot for a Push Toward R1

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bullish continuation with upside to 3.10–3.13 if 3.06 breaks; pullbacks likely supported at 3.00–3.03.
• Preferred plan: Buy the dip near the daily pivot (≈3.027) aiming for R1 (≈3.111). Alternative: momentum add on breakout through 3.065–3.075 toward 3.12–3.14.

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily trend: Since the 9/25 swing low (2.742) XRP has printed higher lows and higher highs, reclaiming the 3-handle and closing above clustered MAs. The 10/02 session expanded range up to 3.099, followed by 10/03 inside-to-small doji consolidation — textbook pause after thrust.
• Hourly structure (10/03): Intraday push to 3.092, then orderly retrace into 3.02–3.05 with higher intraday lows (3.017 → 3.022 → ~3.03). This is a bull-flag/ascending triangle under 3.06 supply.
• Key levels (derived from the dataset): • Resistance: 3.06 (intraday supply), 3.10–3.11 (pivot R1), 3.13–3.14 (20D BB upper/Donchian upper area), 3.29–3.33 (August distribution; not a 24h target). • Support: 3.03–3.02 (hourly shelf, daily pivot), 3.00 (psych), 2.97 (Fib 38.2% and recent pivot congestion), 2.92–2.88 (Fib 50–61.8%), 2.742 (swing low).

2. Moving averages (daily)

• SMA5 ≈ 2.951; SMA10 ≈ 2.889; SMA20 ≈ 2.937; price = 3.039. • Bullish alignment: price > SMA5 > SMA20 > SMA10, with all three curling up, confirming short-term uptrend resumption.
• 50D SMA (est.) ≈ 2.98 (given late-Aug–Sep distribution). Price > 50D, adding trend confirmation.
• Hourly 20/50 EMA (inferred): Price oscillating slightly above; pullbacks toward ~3.02–3.03 tend to be bought.

3. Momentum

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 53.7: Neutral-bullish; room to run before overbought.
• Stochastic (14,3,3) ≈ 83%: Embedded in upper range but not extreme; consistent with bullish drift.
• MACD (12,26,9) daily (qualitative): Positive-cross and histogram turning mildly positive after multi-day ascent; momentum improving but not extended.

4. Volatility and envelopes

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 0.112: Implies typical 24h span of ~±0.11.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 2.937; Upper ≈ 3.139; Lower ≈ 2.735. Price sits between mid and upper band with room toward 3.13–3.14 before band pressure.
• Keltner Channel (EMA20 ± 2×ATR, est.): Mid ≈ 2.94; Upper ≈ 3.16; Lower ≈ 2.72. Price has space to the upper KC, indicating upside headroom.

5. Ichimoku (approximated)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ (HH9+LL9)/2 ≈ (3.099 + 2.739)/2 ≈ 2.919; Kijun (26) ≈ ~2.96. Current price (3.04) > Tenkan & Kijun; likely above a thin cloud. Bullish state with Tenkan > Kijun or converging.

6. Fibonacci mapping (swing 2.742 → 3.099)

• 38.2% ≈ 2.963; 50% ≈ 2.920; 61.8% ≈ 2.878. Recent pullbacks held above 2.963, a constructive sign of shallow retracement in an advance.

7. Donchian/Range context (20D)

• Upper ≈ 3.137 (9/18 high); Lower ≈ 2.742 (9/25 low). Price is in the upper half of the 20D channel; breakout attempt toward the upper band remains in play.

8. Volume, breadth, and money flow

• Volume expansion: 10/02–10/03 volumes (~7.3–7.34B) > many prior sessions, supporting the breakout attempt above 3.00.
• OBV (qualitative): Series of higher closes since 9/25 with several up-volume days outweighing down days → rising OBV; accumulation bias.
• CMF/A/D (qualitative): Closes skewed toward upper intraday ranges on up days; money flow supportive.

9. Pivots (classic; using 10/02 H/L/C = 3.0993/2.9434/3.0393)

• Pivot P ≈ 3.0273; R1 ≈ 3.1113; R2 ≈ 3.1832; S1 ≈ 2.9554; S2 ≈ 2.8714.
• Current price is above P, below R1 → standard bullish bias with magnet to R1 (3.111). This aligns with BB upper vicinity (~3.139) as an ambitious upside stretch if momentum strengthens.

10. Candlesticks and patterns

• Daily: 10/02 wide green body (trend day) followed by 10/03 small-bodied session/doji near highs → typical bullish continuation pause.
• Hourly: Ascending triangle under 3.06 with higher lows, forming a coiled spring. Breaks of 3.064–3.075 should release energy toward 3.11–3.13.

11. Regression and slope

• 30D linear regression slope: Positive (price from ~2.85–2.90 to ~3.04); residuals shrinking post 9/25 → trend stabilization and re-acceleration.

12. ADX/trend strength (qualitative)

• ADX rising from a low base as price advances above clustered MAs; DI+ > DI− likely since 9/30. Trend still young, offering continuation potential without overextension.

13. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (≈60–65%): Upside drift; hold 3.00–3.03, then test 3.06; breakout targets 3.11 (pivot R1) and stretch 3.13–3.14 (BB upper/Donchian upper zone). Expected range ≈ 2.99–3.12/3.14.
• Bear case (≈25–30%): Failure at 3.06; lose 3.00 intraday → mean-revert toward 2.97 (Fib 38.2%/local shelf). Deeper risk toward 2.95–2.92 only if volume turns distributional.
• Tail risk (≈5–10%): Sharp risk-off; gap through 2.92 toward 2.88–2.87 (Fib 61.8%); invalidates immediate bullish thesis.

14. Strategy, entries, and targets

• Thesis: Momentum-backed continuation with supportive breadth, positive MA stack, and pivot structure suggesting a magnet to R1.
• Optimal entry: Limit buy at/near daily pivot 3.027 (buy-the-dip into support). This aligns with hourly shelf and offers defined risk.
• Profit objective: 3.111 (pivot R1). Optional stretch target: 3.13–3.14 (BB upper) if momentum accelerates post-break.
• Risk management (context only): Invalidation below 2.97–2.955 (Fib 38.2%/S1) where structure weakens; that zone should serve as a stop for tight risk.

Conclusion

• Indicators triangulate toward a controlled bullish continuation: price above rising MAs, RSI mid-50s, expanding volume, supportive pivots, and an hourly coil under resistance. The highest-odds path in the next 24 hours is a probe of 3.10–3.12. I favor buying a pullback to the pivot with a take-profit at R1.