XRP poised for a mean-reversion pop: buy the 2.96 dip for a move toward 3.06 over the next 24 hours

Executive summary

• XRP is consolidating in a well-defined 2.95 to 3.06 range after a rebound from the late September swing low near 2.74. The most recent intraday action shows a liquidity sweep of 2.95 followed by a reclaim toward 2.97, signaling responsive buyers at range lows. Volatility and trend strength are muted, favoring mean reversion. Probability-weighted bias for the next 24 hours is a drift to the top of the current range around 3.06 while 2.95 continues to act as near-term support.

Price structure and levels

• Higher timeframe context daily
  • July impulsive uptrend peaked mid-July around 3.65, followed by two and a half months of broad distribution and a controlled downtrend into the 2.74 to 2.79 area in late September.
  • Since the 9-25 to 9-26 washout, price has carved a base of higher lows above 2.74 and repeatedly retested the 2.94 to 2.97 zone, which has transitioned into a demand pocket.
  • Recent daily closes: 10-1 to 10-3 rebounded to 3.04, 10-4 pulled back to 2.97 with a long lower wick, 10-5 forming a small doji around 2.97. This shows indecision within a balanced range rather than trend continuation down.
• Key support and resistance map
  • Immediate support cluster: 2.95 to 2.96 (multiple touches on hourly, pivot zone, 38.2 to 50 percent retrace of the 2.742 to 3.093 leg).
  • Secondary support: 2.92 to 2.93 (50 to 61.8 percent retracement cluster, daily S1 from prior session, micro shelf from late September).
  • Deeper support: 2.88 to 2.90 (S2 from prior day pivots and lower Bollinger region); critical higher low defense above 2.85.
  • Near-term resistance: 3.03 to 3.06 (range highs from 10-1 to 10-3, R1 to R2 pivot band, intraday supply from today’s 07 to 09 UTC swing).
  • Extension resistance: 3.09 to 3.10 (R2 from prior day pivot and upper Bollinger daily), then 3.18 to 3.20 if range breaks.

Intraday microstructure hourly

• 10-5 action formed a descending intraday channel off the 3.063 morning high, culminating in a liquidity sweep to 2.953 at 19:00 UTC, then a strong reclaim candle closing 2.973 at 20:00 UTC. This is a classic stop run and regain of the prior range floor, often preceding a drift back to mid and upper range (3.00 to 3.06).
• The last two hours show improving bid with closes above 2.97 and returns toward the daily pivot region, consistent with responsive buying.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI daily estimated around 48 to 52, consistent with balance and lack of trend. No bearish or bullish extremes; room to rotate up toward 55 to 60 if price retests 3.06.
• RSI hourly dipped into low 40s during the 2.953 sweep and is curling higher, a constructive mean reversion signal.
• Stochastic and Stoch RSI on the hourly likely crossed up from oversold during the bounce from 2.95, supporting near-term upward rotation within the range.
• MACD daily flattened near zero after the early October rebound. Histogram near flat to slightly positive suggests a drift rather than a drive. MACD hourly has turned up from sub-zero after the sweep, in line with a push toward 3.02 to 3.06.

Trend, volatility, and strength

• Moving averages
  • 20-day SMA roughly 2.95 to 2.99; 50-day SMA roughly 3.00 to 3.05. Price is sandwiched between the two, consistent with non-trending conditions.
  • Price reclaiming and holding above the 20-day mean tends to magnetize the mid-Bollinger region and sets up tests of upper band zones around 3.08 to 3.10.
• Bollinger Bands daily
  • Midline near 2.97 to 2.99, upper band near 3.08 to 3.10, lower band near 2.86 to 2.88.
  • Current price near the midline after bouncing off a lower intraday band touch; base case is a rotation toward the upper band if 2.95 holds.
• ADX and DMI
  • Daily ADX subdued (low teens to high teens), indicating range. In ranges, fading edges and playing mean reversion carries edge; breakouts require confirmation.
• ATR 14-day
  • Estimated 0.12 to 0.18. Today’s true range fits comfortably within that band. A 24-hour move from 2.96 to 3.06 is consistent with 0.10 to 0.12 realized range and thus plausible.

Volume and flows

• Volume spiked during the late September washout and has since normalized. The 10-4 candle printed a sizeable lower wick on above-average range but not panic volume, suggesting the flush has already wrung out weak hands.
• On Balance Volume is broadly flat to slightly up off the 2.74 low, which aligns with accumulation behavior at range lows. Today’s hourly rebound from 2.95 printed constructive volume, confirming participation on the bounce.

Market profile and pivots

• Classic daily pivot levels computed from 10-4 (H 3.050, L 2.943, C 2.969):
  • Pivot P ≈ 2.987; R1 ≈ 3.032; S1 ≈ 2.925; R2 ≈ 3.095; S2 ≈ 2.880.
  • Price oscillated below and around P today and is now attempting to reclaim toward P. Reclaims of P commonly lead to checks of R1; continuation can target R2 on positive momentum. That aligns with a 3.03 then 3.06 to 3.09 path.

Fibonacci structure

• From 2.742 low on 9-25 to 3.093 high on 10-3:
  • 38.2 percent ≈ 2.942; 50 percent ≈ 2.918; 61.8 percent ≈ 2.893.
  • Today’s sweep stopped just above 38.2 at 2.953 and well above 50 percent, a bullish retracement respect. Holding above 2.94 to 2.92 keeps the bullish correction intact and favors a retest of 3.03 to 3.06.

Ichimoku take

• Tenkan estimated around 2.99; Kijun around 2.96 to 2.97; price near Kijun and slightly below Tenkan suggests equilibrium with a mild upward bias if Tenkan is reclaimed.
• Cloud likely thin and flat in the 2.95 to 3.00 region; thin clouds are easier to traverse on modest momentum.

VWAP and anchored references

• Anchored VWAP from the 9-25 capitulation low likely sits around 2.94 to 2.96. Price trading just above this anchor and defending it intraday indicates buyers still control the average cost from that washout.
• Intraday session VWAPs gravitating around 2.99; an impulsive reclaim of 3.00 would likely draw price to the 3.03 liquidity pocket.

Pattern diagnostics

• Range-bound rectangle between 2.95 support and 3.06 resistance. Multiple failed attempts to break each side reinforce the range edges and improve the reliability of fades until a confirmed breakout.
• The 19:00 UTC stop run and reclaim is a common spring pattern in Wyckoff terms. Springs that hold above the broken level often precede a test of the opposite side of the range.

Scenario analysis next 24 hours

• Base case 60 percent probability: Mean reversion up within range. Hold above 2.95 to 2.96, reclaim 2.99 to 3.00, test R1 3.03, extend to 3.06. If momentum persists into US session, a probe toward 3.08 to 3.09 is possible, but 3.06 remains the high-probability magnet.
• Alt case 30 percent probability: Another dip to 2.94 to 2.95 on overnight Asia flow, quick absorption and bounce back toward 3.00. This would provide better entry for longs.
• Bear case 10 percent probability: A firm loss of 2.94 on hourly close and failure to reclaim on retest opens 2.92 then 2.88. In that scenario, the range thesis fails and short setups toward 2.90 to 2.88 gain edge. Not base case given current reclaim.

Risk management and trade plan

• Strategy selection: In a low ADX, Bollinger midline environment with clear horizontal levels, mean reversion long from the lower third of the range offers the best expectancy.
• Entry plan: Staggered limit entry in the 2.958 to 2.965 band. This is just above today’s sweep low and below the daily pivot, capturing a minor pullback without requiring a perfect tick.
• Take profit: Primary target 3.065, just below the 3.06 range cap and under the R2 proximity, to improve fill probability.
• Invalidation guidance: For risk control, an hourly close below 2.948 followed by failure to reclaim on retest would invalidate the immediate bounce and suggest stepping aside; deeper invalidation below 2.928 where 50 percent retrace breaks.
• Reward to risk illustration: Entry 2.960, soft stop concept 2.928 risks 0.032; target 3.065 captures 0.105; R multiple approximately 3.3 if using that stop framework.

Confluence summary

• Support respected at a Fibonacci and historical pivot cluster around 2.95.
• Hourly spring and reclaim pattern.
• Pivot math points to R1 first then a high-probability magnet near 3.06.
• Oscillators turning up from neutral to slightly bullish with low ADX suggests rotation toward the top of range rather than a breakout impulse.

Outlook

• Bias for next 24 hours: Mildly bullish within range. Expect a grind higher toward 3.03 then 3.06 provided 2.95 continues to hold. Best execution is buying minor dips into 2.958 to 2.965 and exiting into 3.06 to 3.07 liquidity.