XRP Price Analysis Powered by AI

XRP coiling above the golden pocket: poised to probe 3.00 within 24 hours

Executive summary and bias

Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish, range expansion likely toward 2.96–3.01 if 2.90–2.91 pivot is reclaimed and held. Favor buying a pullback into 2.88–2.89 with take-profit just below 3.00.

Daily trend: After peaking mid-July (~3.65), XRP corrected and transitioned into a broad range. Since the Sep 25 low (2.7423), price has printed a sequence of higher lows (2.742→2.7858→2.8077→2.8469→2.8559), while highs capped below ~3.10. This is a constructive base with an emergent symmetrical coil within a 2.85–3.04 band.
Current location: 2.898 is mid-range, sitting just under the short-term pivot shelf at ~2.903–2.906 and below the 50%/61.8% Fibonacci cluster defined from the Sep 25 → Oct 2 impulse.
Intraday structure (hourly): Today probed up to ~2.923 (15–17 UTC) and faded to ~2.90, holding above the morning troughs. This resembles a bullish backtest of the breakout attempt rather than outright rejection, provided 2.885–2.895 holds.
Candlesticks: Recent daily bodies are modest with wicks both sides—range dynamics/indecision. Today’s hourly sequence shows a low-volatility pullback post spike—typical of consolidation before a second push if pivot is reclaimed.

Supports: 2.879–2.886 (61.8% retracement of 2.742→3.099; “golden pocket”), 2.853–2.860 (multi-touch shelf and prior breakdown pivot), 2.807 (floor pivots S1 from prior day), 2.742 (range floor).
Resistances: 2.903–2.906 (daily pivot P from prior day ≈2.9036), 2.920–2.923 (intraday spike high and 50% retrace ≈2.9205), 2.952 (R1), 2.962 (Fib 38.2%), 3.00–3.04 (psychological and Oct 2–3 highs/upper band zone), 3.048 (R2 cluster).

SMA20 (approx): ~2.91. Price is marginally below, indicating a neutral-to-slight bearish skew short-term but close enough for quick reclaim.
SMA50 (approx): Above price (~2.98–3.02 region), acting as overhead dynamic resistance overlapping the 3.00–3.04 band.
EMA8/EMA21 (implied): EMA8 ~2.90, EMA21 ~2.92. Price sits between them; a recross of EMA8>EMA21 would add momentum confirmation on intraday closes.
Takeaway: A close back above 2.91–2.92 flips the micro-trend bullish within the larger range.

RSI(14) Daily (est.): Neutral, high-40s to low-50s. No overbought/oversold extremes, consistent with range.
RSI Hourly: Likely mid-range with mild bullish divergence potential between the 03:00 lower price print and later higher lows; supports a bounce if pivot reclaimed.
Stochastics: In ranges, stochastic cross-ups from mid-zones often precede pushes to resistance; current position suggests room upwards.
MACD (12,26,9): Turned positive on the Oct 2–3 pop, then flattened. Histogram near zero—poised to re-expand on a modest uptick. A bullish cross on lower timeframes would lead the daily.

ATR(14) Daily (est.): ~0.12–0.15. Expected 24h envelope roughly 2.78–3.03 from 2.90.
Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band near ~2.91, lower band ~2.70s, upper ~3.10s. Price near the mid-band—typical launchpad for a run to the upper half of the band if momentum picks up.

Tenkan (9-period mid): ≈2.973. Price below Tenkan—short-term headwind.
Kijun (26-period mid): ≈3.044. Stronger resistance aligns with 3.00–3.05.
Cloud: Flat spans around ~3.0 help magnetize price once reclaimed; first attempt likely stalls near 3.00–3.04 before any sustained breakout.

50%: 2.9205 (today’s intraday cap).
61.8%: 2.879 (golden pocket; today’s optimal buy zone).
38.2%: 2.9626 (first upside objective).
23.6%: 3.015 (secondary objective/extension). Confluence: Current price oscillates between the 50% and 61.8%—a classic reload zone for continuation after the early-October impulse.

Pivot P: ≈2.9036; R1 ≈2.952; S1 ≈2.807; R2 ≈3.048.
Trade logic: Reclaiming P and holding above on hourly closes often implies a push to R1; momentum overshoot can test 2.962–3.00.

Daily volume: Moderating versus late September’s selloff, indicative of absorption and base-building rather than renewed distribution.
Hourly prints: Thin/patchy in data, but the 17–18 UTC push to ~2.923 drew relatively higher prints then cooled—typical of a first probe. A second attempt often follows if dips are bought.
OBV (qualitative): Off the Sep 25 low, OBV trajectory is gently rising—accumulation bias.

Symmetrical triangle/coil inside 2.85–3.04 range. A break above 2.92–2.95 unlocks 2.96–3.01 quickly. Failure to hold 2.86 would open a slide to 2.82 and potentially 2.78, but that’s a lower-probability path given higher-lows sequence.
Wyckoff lens: Signs of absorption on down moves near 2.85, minor upthrusts rejected near 2.92–2.95—classic range rotation. With demand stepping in at higher lows, odds favor a test of range mid/upper.
Liquidity: Stop pools likely above 2.923 and near 2.952; a run into those pockets can accelerate price into the 2.96–3.00 magnet.

Regime: Range-bound with positive skew. Mean-reversion-to-breakout hybrid preferred: buy pullbacks into golden pocket with targets at Fib 38.2% and psychological 3.00.
Probability set (24h): Bullish continuation 55–60%; Neutral coil 25–30%; Bearish breakdown sub-2.86 about 15–20%.

Entry: Limit buy near 2.882–2.886 (61.8% retrace/golden pocket and intraday VWAP zone). Current price 2.898—patient entry improves R:R.
Profit-taking: Primary TP at 2.996 (just shy of 3.00 round and below SMA50/Ichimoku resistance), capturing the typical ATR move and front-running offers.
Invalidation (for risk framing, not part of order output): A sustained hourly close below 2.853–2.860 would negate the setup and suggest rotation back toward 2.82.

Conclusion and 24h outlook

Expect a buy-the-dip behavior into 2.88–2.89 with a push toward 2.96 first, and likely a tag of ~3.00 if the daily pivot (≈2.904) is reclaimed/held. This aligns with multi-tool confluence: Fib golden pocket support, pivot dynamics, higher-low market structure, neutral momentum ready to expand, and Bollinger mid-band reversion.