XRP Cracks Support: Short the Bounce Into 2.64–2.68, Target 2.50

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Bearish continuation with a reflexive bounce likely. Expect a weak retest of broken intraday levels (2.64–2.70) followed by another leg down toward 2.52–2.56.
• Trade idea: Sell the bounce (short on a bearish retest). Optimal entry zone 2.64–2.68; take profit near 2.50–2.52. Invalidation if price reclaims and holds above ~2.72–2.74.

1. Multi-timeframe market structure and trend

• Daily structure (last ~90 days): After peaking around 3.65 in mid-July, XRP printed a sequence of lower highs: ~3.54 (Jul 17) → ~3.33 (Aug 13) → ~3.10 (Oct 2–3). Lows progressively stepped down from ~3.08 (late Jul) → ~2.85 (Sep) → fresh multi-month low today at ~2.598. This confirms a medium-term downtrend with a clear range breakdown.
• Recent daily range: For most of Sep and early Oct, price oscillated roughly 2.74–3.10. Today’s decisive break below the 2.74/2.70 floor and close near the low establishes acceptance below the prior value area.
• Intraday (Oct 10): Distribution day. Price held 2.81–2.83 through the European morning, then broke 2.74 around 15:00 UTC with a volume surge, stepping down 2.74 → 2.71 → 2.60. The session settled at the lows (2.5978), signaling persistent supply and no meaningful late-day short covering.

2. Momentum and trend indicators

• Moving averages (approximations):
  • 50D EMA trending down near ~3.00; 20D EMA near ~2.95. Price is far below both, indicating strong bearish momentum and potential for only limited mean reversion before sellers reassert.
  • Short-term MAs on the 1H/4H are fanned bearishly downward; price is below them all, pointing to trend continuation.
• RSI:
  • Daily RSI(14) likely hovering around low-30s and falling after two sharp down sessions (Oct 7 and today), i.e., near oversold but not divergent yet.
  • 1H RSI has been sub-30 (oversold) during the sell program; a reflexive bounce into 2.64–2.70 is probable, but oversold can persist in trends.
• MACD:
  • Daily MACD has rolled bearishly with histogram expansion; momentum supports further downside until a credible base forms.
  • 1H MACD is deeply negative; watch for contracting histogram on any bounce for a bearish re-entry signal.

3. Volatility and bands

• ATR expansion: Daily range expanded materially today (roughly 0.30+ from intraday high to low), lifting the 14D ATR. Expect elevated volatility over the next 24 hours; a 0.15–0.22 range is plausible.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Price pushed through/lives outside the lower band, a classic “band walk.” In strong trends, price can hug the band; temporary snapbacks toward the band’s edge (~2.70 area) are common before continuation.

4. Volume, profile, and order-flow context

• Today’s distribution: Large volume spike on the break of 2.74 and another push lower to 2.60 indicates initiative selling, not just weak-hand liquidation.
• Market profile read:
  • Prior HVN/acceptance around 2.95–3.05; LVN pocket near 2.68–2.71 formed intraday (single prints) after the air pocket broke. These LVNs frequently act as resistance on first retest.
  • Below 2.60, there’s sparse recent volume in the dataset; next likely liquidity magnets: round/psych levels at 2.55 and 2.50.

5. Key levels (confluence of structure, fibs, and intraday pivots)

• Resistance (sell zones):
  • 2.64–2.68: Intraday shelf/LVN pocket; prior breakdown step; aligns with a shallow fib retracement of today’s move.
  • 2.70–2.72: 23.6% retracement of the Oct 3 high (~3.093) to today’s low (~2.598), plus micro supply. Reclaiming/holding above here would be the first signal bears are losing near-term control.
  • 2.74: Prior range floor; now strong resistance if tested.
• Supports (downside magnets):
  • 2.58–2.60: Session low/round number. First bounce zone already in play.
  • 2.52–2.56: Next structural demand area from psychological interest and measured move projections.
  • 2.48–2.50: Psychological support; potential terminal target if momentum persists.

6. Fibonacci and measured move context

• From Oct 3 high (~3.093) to today’s low (~2.598) is ~0.495. Common retracements:
  • 23.6%: ~2.715
  • 38.2%: ~2.787
  • 50%: ~2.845 In a strong downtrend with a fresh breakdown, the 23.6%–38.2% area is the typical “sell the bounce” zone. Given intraday order flow, 2.64–2.70 is the highest-probability retest band.

7. Ichimoku, SAR, and trend tools

• Ichimoku (1H/4H): Price below cloud; cloud bearish and thickening. Tenkan < Kijun and both above price, indicating persistent downside pressure; Kijun near ~2.80 acts as higher resistance.
• Parabolic SAR: Flipped above price on intraday frames, reinforcing the trend-follow setup.
• ADX: Likely rising >25 on intraday frames following today’s impulse; trend strength supports continuation after a pause.

8. Candlestick/price action reads

• Daily: Large red marubozu-like candle breaking multi-week support; closes at the lows—continuation pattern absent a fast reversal on the next session open.
• Intraday: Clean staircase lower with minor consolidations; no strong reversal wicks near the close; indicates sellers comfortable carrying risk overnight.

9. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈60%): Reflex bounce into 2.64–2.70 meets supply; sellers fade the rally; price rotates down to 2.52–2.56. Session closes weak (2.54–2.57).
• Bear extension (≈25%): Brief or no bounce; quick liquidity sweep below 2.60 to 2.48–2.52, then stabilize.
• Bull surprise/squeeze (≈15%): Aggressive reclaim of 2.70–2.72 followed by a push to 2.78–2.82 (lower Bollinger band retest/MA tags). Would threaten shorts; sustained hold above 2.74 invalidates the immediate bear view.

10. Risk management and execution plan

• Entry method: Patience for a bearish retest. Place a limit short in the 2.64–2.68 zone; if not filled and price breaks 2.588 decisively on rising volume, a momentum “breakdown add” is acceptable with tighter risk.
• Stop (invalidation): Above 2.72–2.74. A firm close back over 2.72 or multiple 1H closes above 2.72 suggests failed breakdown; above 2.74 turns the day into a potential bear trap.
• Take profit: First target 2.52–2.56; stretch target 2.48 if momentum accelerates.
• Risk-reward: Example entry 2.645, stop 2.722 (risk ~0.077), TP 2.505 (reward ~0.140), R:R ≈ 1.8:1. With volatility elevated, consider partials at 2.56 and trail stops.

11. Probabilistic price map (24h)

• Expected high: 2.68–2.71 (on bounce)
• Expected low: 2.50–2.55 (continuation)
• Likely close: 2.54–2.57 (weak finish)

12. Why not buy the dip here?

• Price just broke a multi-week floor with a closing print on the lows and expanding volume/ATR. That setup favors “short the bounce” rather than “catch the knife.” Any long would be countertrend and lower probability until a base forms (e.g., a higher low after a sweep of 2.50, or a reclaim and hold above ~2.72–2.74).

Bottom line

• The path of least resistance remains down. Use a patient, professional entry: fade a shallow retracement into 2.64–2.68 with stops above 2.72–2.74. Target 2.50–2.52 over the next 24 hours.

Note: Crypto is highly volatile. Size positions prudently and respect stops; slippage risk increases around key levels and during illiquid hours.