XRP Coils Beneath 2.65: Ascending-Triangle Breakout Setup Toward 2.72–2.78 Within 24 Hours

Executive summary and 24h view

• Bias: Mildly bullish over the next 24 hours with a breakout-continuation setup if 2.66–2.66x clears on expanding volume. Medium-term trend still corrective within a larger downtrend from the 3.0+ area.
• Structure: Price is compressing just under a well-defined resistance shelf (2.65–2.66) while registering higher lows since the Oct 17 swing low (2.294). This is textbook ascending-triangle behavior on the daily/4H, with repeated taps on the ceiling and rising demand at progressively higher levels.
• Strategy: Buy-stop on breakout above resistance to capture momentum into the R2/R3 pivot band and the 78.6% retracement pocket (2.72–2.78). Alternative: buy-the-dip at 2.60–2.61 only if a reject-then-reload scenario unfolds.

Step-by-step technical analysis

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily trend: From 2025-10-10 capitulation (intraday low ~1.528) to 2025-10-25 close 2.596 and current 2.638, XRP has built a series of higher lows: 2.294 (Oct 17) → ~2.36–2.39 (Oct 18–24) → 2.506 (Oct 25). Highs are also advancing: 2.512 → 2.645 (Oct 25) → 2.657 (today’s intraday). This creates a rising base pressing into horizontal resistance ~2.65–2.66.
• Intraday structure (hourly): Repeated probes of 2.645–2.659 (09:00 and 11:00 UTC hours) with shallow pullbacks to 2.63–2.64 and quick re-accumulation. Dips are being bought more quickly, indicative of demand absorption below resistance.
• Candlesticks: The 10/25 daily candle printed a long intraday excursion to 2.645 with a close at 2.596 (minor upper wick), followed by today’s re-test of that high (2.657). The ability to re-test the high so soon after a mild rejection—without a deeper retrace—is constructive for bulls.

2. Key levels (confluence-driven)

• Resistance: 2.65–2.66 (local ceiling/ascending-triangle top), 2.72 (daily pivot R2 calc), 2.76–2.78 (0.786 retracement of 3.10→1.528 leg, cluster target), 2.80 (round/psych), 3.00 (major).
• Support: 2.60–2.61 (intraday shelf; breakout base), 2.55 (minor), 2.50–2.52 (prior LPS area), 2.44 (S2 pivot), 2.36–2.40 (swing structure zone), 2.29 (major swing low/invalidation for the short-term uptrend).

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 5D SMA ≈ 2.457 (est.): Price is above—short-term momentum positive.
• 10D SMA ≈ 2.416 (est.): Price solidly above—short-term trend confirmed up.
• 20D SMA (rough est.): Likely ~2.75–2.85 due to pre-crash prints; price remains below the 20D SMA, flagging a corrective upswing within a bigger downtrend.
• Read: Bullish short-term; neutral-to-bearish medium-term. Expect resistance headwinds near the 20D SMA band as price approaches 2.72–2.85.

4. Momentum gauges

• RSI (14D, est.): Low-to-mid 50s (circa 53–57). That’s constructive without being overbought—room to run on a breakout. Intraday RSI on the hourly likely hovering near 60, consistent with pressure-building under resistance.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): MACD histogram rising from deeply negative post-crash levels; the 12/26 EMAs likely still below the zero line but converging—classic early-phase momentum turn. On a daily close >2.66–2.68, MACD should continue improving toward the zero-line.
• Stochastics (intraday): Likely elevated but not extreme; shallow dips are being bid, consistent with a sustained grind higher.

5. Volatility and range analysis

• ATR(14D, est.): ~0.12–0.14 (excluding the extreme crash day). This puts a typical 24h expected move around ±0.12–0.14 from wherever the break triggers.
• Implication: A breakout through 2.66 can reasonably target 2.72–2.76 within one ATR, with upper tail risk to ~2.79 (R3 region) if momentum expands.

6. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Given elevated historical volatility from the crash, bands are still wider than normal; price has migrated from the lower/middle band toward the upper half. A clean close above the middle band would help sponsor continuation toward the upper band in coming sessions. For the next 24h, BBs don’t cap upside until mid-2.7s.

7. Pivot points (Classic, based on 10/25 H/L/C)

• High 2.6452, Low 2.5058, Close 2.5964 ⇒ Pivot P ≈ 2.5825
• R1 ≈ 2.6591, S1 ≈ 2.5197, R2 ≈ 2.7219, S2 ≈ 2.4431, R3 ≈ 2.7985
• Price is hovering just below R1; a push through R1 opens the path to R2 (2.72), then R3 (2.80). This aligns with our anticipated breakout levels.

8. Fibonacci map (swing and retracement)

• Major swing: 3.10 → 1.528. Key retracements from the low: 50% ≈ 2.314, 61.8% ≈ 2.499, 78.6% ≈ 2.764. XRP is above 61.8% and coiling just below 78.6%. The 0.786 pocket (2.76–2.78) often acts as a magnet once 0.618 is reclaimed, provided momentum continues.
• Micro swing (post-Oct 17 low 2.294 → current high ~2.657): A shallow consolidation under the high implies bullish continuation probability; measured-move from the triangle height (~2.66 minus ~2.50 ≈ 0.16) projects to ~2.82 on a full extension. First objective remains 2.72–2.76.

9. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ midpoint of last 9 days’ HL, likely around 2.46–2.50; price above Tenkan = short-term supportive.
• Kijun (26) ≈ midpoint of last 26 days’ HL, likely nearer 2.85–2.95 given prior highs; price below Kijun = medium-term headwind.
• Cloud (Senkou span): Likely overhead/slightly ahead; expect resistance thickening above mid-2.7s. A drive into 2.72–2.78 would begin testing the lower cloud boundary area in many parameterizations.

10. Volume and participation

• Post-crash volumes have moderated yet remain healthy. The 10/25 rally to 2.645 printed reasonable activity; today’s intraday retests show incremental volume on pushes up (e.g., 09:00–12:00 UTC bars). Bullish scenario needs a modest volume expansion on the break above 2.66 to sustain into 2.72–2.76.
• Volume-by-price (qualitative): A sticky node developed around 2.58–2.61 (recent acceptance). Moving above 2.66 shifts acceptance higher and should reduce overhead friction until ~2.72.

11. Pattern frameworks

• Ascending triangle: Rising lows compressing under a flat(ish) top ~2.65; multiple taps with diminishing rejections. Break probability skewed upward if next test is on higher volume.
• Wyckoff lens: Post-crash Selling Climax (SC) → Automatic Rally (AR) → Secondary Test (ST) near 2.29–2.36 → Sign of Strength (SOS) through 2.50–2.60 → now potential Last Point of Support (LPS) cluster at 2.60–2.61. Next SOS could target 2.72+.
• Elliott wave (heuristic): From 2.294: wave 1 to ~2.58, wave 2 back to ~2.39–2.50 zone, wave 3 unfolding toward 2.65–2.70, shallow wave 4 consolidation <2.63, prospective wave 5 pop into 2.72–2.78. This harmonizes with the measured move and pivot targets.

12. Risk diagnostics and invalidation

• Immediate invalidation of the breakout thesis: Failure at 2.66 with a swift rejection and daily close back below ~2.60 coupled with rising sell volume. That would push price back into 2.55–2.58 and potentially re-open 2.50–2.52. Major invalidation: loss of 2.44–2.50 cluster would negate the short-term higher-low sequence.
• Tail risk: Overhead supply pockets near 2.72 and especially 2.76–2.78 could produce abrupt long squeezes if buyers chase late; manage exits near those levels.

13. Quantified 24h scenarios (probabilistic, subjective)

• Base case (55%): Clean break above 2.66 → run to 2.72–2.75 → close in the 2.68–2.73 zone.
• Pullback-then-break (25%): Brief fade to 2.60–2.61 to harvest liquidity, then rebound through 2.66 toward 2.72 by end of window.
• Rejection (20%): Multiple failures at 2.66 lead to a drift back toward 2.58–2.60; limited downside expected unless a high-volume sell impulse appears.

Trade plan and execution logic

• Preferred entry: Buy-stop on breakout at 2.668 (above R1/ceiling and today’s intraday highs) to ensure momentum confirmation.
• Primary target: 2.768 (just beneath the 0.786 retracement band and below R3 extension for prudent fills), within 1 ATR above the trigger with scope to stretch if volume surges.
• Suggested risk anchor (not required by prompt, provided for completeness): Protective stop could be staged below 2.592 (beneath intraday support and prior micro swing lows), yielding approx R:R ≈ 1.3:1 to the 2.768 target; better R:R if scaling out at 2.72 and holding a runner.
• Alternative entry (contingent): Buy-the-dip at 2.608–2.615 if the market sweeps below intraday lows and reclaims 2.62 quickly; target remains 2.72–2.76.

Bottom line

• Momentum is building under a well-defined 2.65–2.66 lid with higher lows and improving breadth. While the medium-term downtrend (sub-20D/26EMA) still looms, the next 24 hours favor a measured breakout into 2.72–2.78 if 2.66 breaks on volume. A breakout buy is the higher-probability, cleaner setup right now.