XRP poised for a countertrend pop: Watching 2.30 reclaim for a run at 2.36

This is market analysis only, not financial advice. Always manage risk.

Executive view (24h): XRP is in a broader daily downtrend but showing early signs of a short-term mean-reversion bounce from a local support cluster. I expect a constructive grind higher into 2.33–2.37 over the next 24 hours unless 2.25 breaks, which would reopen 2.21.

1. Market structure and trend

• Daily structure: Clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows from the late-Oct swing high (≈2.66 on 10/26) down to early-Nov lows (≈2.08–2.21 on 11/3–11/6). Price is trading below the 20D and 50D moving averages, confirming a bearish primary trend.
• Intraday (hourly 11/8): Today carved a shallow higher-low sequence from ≈2.25 to ≈2.286 into the close; a minor ascending channel formed after the morning dip, suggesting buyers are probing.
• Key horizontal levels: • Support: 2.21 (double-bottom pivot zone: 11/4 and 11/6 closes/lows), 2.25–2.27 (intraday shelf), 2.24 (micro liquidity pocket).
  • Resistance: 2.30 (micro pivot/38.2% fib vicinity), 2.33–2.35 (descending trendline/neckline area), 2.36–2.37 (50% fib), 2.43–2.45 (61.8% fib/20D mean cluster), 2.50 (round/previous supply).

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D SMA ≈ 2.44 (est.). Price ≈ 2.284 is ~6.5% below: short-term trend down; room for mean reversion to the band midline.
• 50D SMA ≈ 2.79 (est.). 20D < 50D and price < both: bearish alignment on higher timeframe.
• 8/13 EMA ribbon (intraday) is flattening and beginning to curl higher late session; watch for price acceptance above 2.30–2.31 for momentum confirmation.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 32.3 (est.): near oversold, supportive of a bounce but not yet an extreme flush; room to lift toward neutral (40–45) on a modest rally.
• Hourly RSI oscillated from oversold toward mid-40s/50s into the close, consistent with a small constructive push.
• Stochastic (intraday) crossed up from sub-20 earlier; still below overbought, allowing further upside room before momentum tires.
• MACD (daily): Negative with a shallow histogram contraction; suggests downside momentum is waning. A bullish cross is premature, but histogram narrowing favors a short-term rally attempt.

4. Volatility, range and bands

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 0.17 (est.). Implies a typical 24h span of ~±0.17 around the mean. From 2.28, that maps a 2.11–2.45 envelope in a full-range day; a more realistic next 24h objective is the 2.33–2.37 zone.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 2.44; lower band est. ≈ 2.20–2.22. Price sits in the lower quartile, recently bouncing off the lower band neighborhood; mean-reversion pull toward the mid-band strengthens the bullish scalp case.

5. Volume, participation, and flow

• Post-selloff days (11/3–11/6) showed elevated volume on down legs and diminishing volume on later sessions—typical of seller exhaustion. Friday/Saturday compressions with lighter turnover hint at a volatility contraction setup into a directional move.
• OBV (qualitative) rolled over in late Oct and has stabilized the past 2–3 sessions; a push through 2.33–2.35 with rising OBV would validate buyers.

6. Fibonnaci and measured levels

• Swing: 10/26 high 2.659 to 11/4 low 2.076 (Δ ≈ 0.583).
  • 23.6%: ≈ 2.214 (aligns with the 2.21 floor).
  • 38.2%: ≈ 2.299 (micro resistance just overhead).
  • 50%: ≈ 2.368 (first strong upside target).
  • 61.8%: ≈ 2.436 (confluence with 20D SMA ~2.44).
• Current price hovering just under the 38.2% level: a break/hold above ~2.30 unlocks 2.36, then 2.43–2.45.

7. Chart patterns and setups

• Potential double-bottom around 2.21 (11/4–11/6) with a tentative neckline at ~2.31–2.33. A clean hourly close above 2.33 projects a measured move of ~0.12 toward ~2.45 (also aligning with 61.8% fib and 20D SMA).
• Descending channel from 10/26 persists; price is pressing its midline. A channel break aligns with 2.33–2.35 clearance.
• Candlesticks: 11/6 printed a long lower-tail type bar, 11/7 a constructive green follow-through; 11/8 is an inside/indecision day near the upper intraday range—often a springboard if broken topside.

8. Ichimoku (directional context)

• Price below cloud; cloud sloping down—bearish higher timeframe bias. Tenkan likely ~2.30; Kijun ~2.36. A Tenkan reclaim (2.30) usually precedes a Kijun test (2.36).

9. VWAP and microstructure

• Intraday session VWAP approximates the 2.27–2.28 region; late-day price holding above VWAP is constructive. Liquidity pockets near 2.27 and 2.24 suggest dip-bid zones; overhead liquidity sits 2.30–2.33 (stops from shorts) and again 2.36.

10. Statistical mean reversion and regression

• 20D z-score is roughly −1.0 to −1.2; historically this favors short-term reversion toward the mean (2.40–2.45) within 1–3 sessions, with the first magnet near 2.36.

11. Elliott wave (tentative)

• Five-wave decline from 10/26 may have terminated 11/4; ensuing A-B-C corrective structure likely targeting 2.36 (wave C ≈ wave A) before reassessing. If momentum is strong, a 2.43 overshoot is possible; failure under 2.30 risks another B-wave retest of 2.25/2.21.

12. Scenario planning (24h)

• Base case (55–60%): Break above 2.30 leads to 2.33–2.37 test. Profit-taking likely near 2.36 (Kijun/50% fib).
• Bear case (25–30%): Failure at 2.30/2.33, slip through 2.27; if 2.25 gives way, quick probe to 2.21 support.
• Tail (10–15%): Strong squeeze through 2.37 extends to 2.43–2.45 if broader crypto risk-on resumes.

13. Trading plan synthesis

• Bias: Short-term tactical Buy against 2.21–2.25 support, aiming for a mean-reversion pop toward 2.36. Higher timeframe still bearish; treat as a countertrend scalp.
• Entry tactics:
  • Conservative limit: Buy pullback into 2.27–2.28 (near intraday VWAP/support).
  • Momentum confirmation: Buy stop on break/hold above 2.300–2.305 to ride the push into 2.33–2.36.
• Take-profit: Primary TP 2.36–2.37 (50% fib/Kijun). Stretch TP 2.43–2.45 if momentum/volume expand.
• Invalidation/stop (not part of the order schema but essential): Below 2.238 (beneath today’s shelf) for tight risk; or below 2.205 (beneath the 2.21 double-bottom) for swing tolerance.
• Risk-reward: From 2.278 entry to 2.368 TP = +0.090 (≈+4.0%); stop at 2.238 = −0.040 (≈−1.8%) yields ~2.25:1 RR.

14. What would change my mind

• Bearish: A decisive hourly close below 2.25 with expanding volume invalidates the bounce setup; I’d flip to short toward 2.21 and reassess.
• Bullish acceleration: Strong breadth push above 2.33 with OBV uptick—then I’d trail for a potential 2.43–2.45 extension.

Forecast (24h): Probable upward drift toward 2.33–2.37 with intraday whips; downside risk limited by 2.25–2.27 support, but a break there reopens 2.21.