XRP Stalls at the 2.35 Neckline — Fading the Lower High Toward 2.28 (Next 24h)

Executive summary (24h): XRP is in a short-term consolidation inside a broader downtrend. Today’s push into 2.35 was rejected at a cluster of resistance (descending trendline + intraday R1/R2 pivots + 10/20D moving averages overhead). Momentum is stabilizing but not yet confirmed bullish; risk/reward over the next 24h favors fading into resistance with a target back toward 2.28–2.30 unless bulls reclaim 2.38–2.40 on expanding volume.

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher timeframe (daily, since Oct): After the Oct-10 capitulation (low ~1.53, close ~2.36), price staged a reflex rally into late Oct (~2.65–2.69 highs) and then rolled over in early Nov to retest the 2.21 area (Nov-4 and Nov-6 closing lows ~2.211). Structure since then resembles a Wyckoff-style trading range (TR) with: Selling Climax (SC) on Oct-10 → Automatic Rally (AR) into Oct-26/27 → Secondary Test (ST) around Nov-4/6. We are oscillating mid-TR.
• Intermediate trend: Lower highs from Oct-27 (H 2.693) → Oct-31 (H 2.547) → Nov-2 (C 2.529) → Nov-9 intraday (H 2.352). Descending trendline resistance currently intersects ~2.35–2.37.
• Short-term (intraday Nov-9): Price advanced from the 2.26–2.27 morning base into 2.35, but late-session candles showed rejection and mild distribution back to ~2.335, indicating supply near resistance.

2. Key levels (confluence from S/R, pivots, moving averages, Fibs)

• Immediate resistance: 2.35–2.37 (intraday high 2.3519; daily pivot R1 ≈2.329/ R2 ≈2.374 from Nov-8; descending trendline; 10D SMA above price). Above that: 2.43–2.44 (20D SMA and prior congestion), then 2.50 (50% Fib of the late Oct → early Nov swing; prior range shelf) and 2.60–2.65.
• Immediate support: 2.31–2.30 (intraday shelf/VWAP vicinity), 2.28–2.27 (intraday demand zone), 2.246 (today’s early low cluster), 2.21 (double-bottom closes Nov-4/6). Deeper: 2.16–2.18 (S3 from pivots; Nov-7 intraday low).
• Classic pivots (from Nov-8 H/L/C = 2.333/2.247/2.285): P≈2.288, R1≈2.329, S1≈2.244, R2≈2.374, S2≈2.203, R3≈2.415, S3≈2.158. Today’s rejection below R2 and slip toward R1/P underscores range-bound mean reversion.
• Fibonacci (Oct-26 high 2.6587 → Nov-4 low 2.2106): 38.2% = ~2.3816; 50% = ~2.4346; 61.8% = ~2.4875. Price has not sustained above the 38.2% line; failure there typically implies a weaker retracement and favors fade trades until reclaimed.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 36 (approximate): Bearish but rising from early-Nov lows—this supports counter-trend bounces but not yet a trend reversal. No overbought signal; room exists for a small dip before another attempt higher.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): MACD below zero but histogram has been contracting (less negative) since Nov-6/7—momentum loss on the downside, not yet a bullish cross. A clean trigger would be a daily close above ~2.38–2.40.
• Stochastic (qualitative): Likely mid-range after the intraday pop and fade; signals a choppy environment best suited for mean reversion over pure momentum chasing.

4. Moving averages and trend filters

• 5D SMA ≈ 2.298: Price above 5D—short-term uptick.
• 10D SMA ≈ 2.355: Price just below 10D—overhead friction aligns with the intraday failure near 2.35.
• 20D SMA ≈ 2.436: Price below 20D—medium-term downtrend intact; the 20D coincides with 50% Fib (~2.435), a strong cap unless momentum strengthens.
• 50D SMA (qualitative): Well above current (≈2.7–2.9 given the heavy Aug/Sep prints) → macro downtrend still dominant.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 0.17–0.20: Suggests a typical 24h swing of ~7–9% from current levels. Planning targets and stops inside this envelope is prudent.
• Bollinger Bands (20D, 2σ; mid ≈ 2.436): Price trades in the lower third of the bands. No tight squeeze—variance is still elevated post-crash. Mean reversion pullbacks to the lower band zone are common when price fails at the mid-band.

6. Volume and order flow

• Post-crash bounce (late Oct) was on declining volume; the early-Nov selloff spikes showed renewed supply. Today’s push into 2.35 printed increased intraday volume, but the subsequent fade suggests sellers actively defend this area. That’s classic “test and reject” behavior at resistance.
• Volume-by-price (qualitative): A high-volume node sits ~2.30–2.34 (recent transaction density). Price tends to gravitate to this node when rallies from the lower edge fail.

7. Pattern read: double-bottom potential, but neckline not broken

• Closing-basis double bottom near 2.21 (Nov-4 and Nov-6). Neckline candidate 2.35–2.38 (confluence: descending trendline, 38.2% Fib, R2). Measured move if confirmed: ~0.14 → target ~2.49. As of now, the neckline has not decisively broken; today’s rejection argues for at least one more oscillation lower within the range.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price below the cloud; Kijun/Span A likely above 2.40. Tenkan (9) near 2.34–2.36 zone. Rejection at Tenkan/descending trendline fits a bearish tactical fade unless we see a strong impulsive close back above Tenkan and through the Kijun region.

9. Elliott/wave framing (lightweight)

• Post-SC structure since late Oct looks corrective (a-b-c up into 2.65) followed by another a-b-c down into early Nov. Current advance appears to be a smaller-degree corrective wave within a range, not yet an impulsive trend change.

10. Intraday microstructure (Nov-9)

• Rally: 2.26–2.27 base → 2.35 peak. Then 19:00–21:00 UTC printed lower closes with upper wicks, signaling absorption near resistance.
• VWAP (qualitative): Price sloshed around a likely VWAP ~2.31–2.32. Late session drift back toward 2.33 suggests reversion dynamics dominate.

11. Probabilistic 24h outlook

• Base case (~55–60%): Range fade lower within the TR—drift to 2.30 → probe 2.28–2.29; bounce attempts capped below 2.35–2.37.
• Bullish alt (~30–35%): Strong reclaim >2.35 and daily push through ~2.382 (38.2% Fib) triggers a squeeze toward 2.43–2.44 (20D SMA / 50% Fib). Follow-through requires volume expansion.
• Bearish tail (~10%): Break of 2.246 intraday shelf opens a quick test of 2.21; loss of 2.21 exposes 2.16–2.18. Given stabilizing momentum, this is lower probability near-term unless broader market weakens.

12. Trade plan (24h tactical)

• Rationale to short: Price sits beneath the 10D/20D SMAs, rejected at a dense confluence (2.35–2.37), with RSI sub-40 and MACD still below zero. Mean reversion within the range favors selling strength toward resistance and covering into 2.28–2.30 where demand reappeared.
• Entry (limit/scale): Prefer a limit sell near 2.345 (recent intraday supply, just under the 2.35 trigger and R1 cluster), with allowance to add up to 2.355 if momentum stalls again.
• Target (TP): 2.285 (near Nov-8 pivot P and today’s mid-node). That aligns with the 24h ATR envelope and prior intraday demand.
• Invalidation (stop, discretionary): 2.386 (above 38.2% Fib 2.382 and above today’s rejection zone). A daily/hourly close through 2.382–2.40 flips the near-term bias long toward 2.43–2.44.
• Risk/Reward (approx): Entry 2.345, TP 2.285 (reward ~0.060); stop 2.386 (risk ~0.041) → R:R ≈ 1.45:1, acceptable for a 24h fade inside a range.

13. What flips me bullish

• A decisive hourly close above 2.382 with volume expansion and sustained trade above 2.40 (into the 20D SMA) would set a long trigger toward 2.43–2.44 first, then 2.49 (measured move of the double-bottom) if momentum persists.

Bottom line: The path of least resistance for the next 24 hours is a modest pullback from 2.35’s rejection toward 2.28–2.30. Tactical edge favors a short into strength near 2.345 with a take-profit around 2.285, while respecting a tight invalidation above 2.382–2.40 should bulls seize control.