XRP Coils Beneath the 38.2% Wall: Dip-Buy Setup Aims for a 2.62 Re-Test Within 24 Hours

Context and dataset

• Instrument: XRP/USD
• Current price (last hourly close): 2.5169976
• Data span: Daily candles from 2025-08-13 to 2025-11-10; Hourly candles for 2025-11-09 22:00 to 2025-11-10 22:00
• Liquidity/volatility backdrop: Exceptionally high volatility event on 2025-10-10 (flash crash to 1.528 intraday, close 2.3586, 15.6B volume). Since then, price carved a broad 2.20–2.65 range with improving structure over the last week.

Multi-timeframe structure

1. Higher timeframe (Daily)

• Trend: Macro still down from August highs (~3.32–3.35) into November lows (~2.08–2.16). However, since the 2025-11-04 low (2.2106) there is a nascent sequence of higher lows (11/06 low 2.158 intraday, 11/08 low 2.247, 11/09 low 2.2438, 11/10 low 2.3569), shifting to a short-term bullish bias within a larger corrective downtrend.
• Candlestick character: Today’s candle (open 2.3676, high 2.5769, low 2.3569, close 2.5170) shows a strong intraday rally with an upper rejection wick at ~2.57–2.58, then a pullback into the close but still a solid gain vs. yesterday’s 2.3677. That’s constructive for bulls but highlights overhead supply.
• Key daily levels:
  • Resistance cluster: 2.56–2.58 (today’s high, confluence with Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, see below)
  • Next resistances: 2.60–2.65 (late-Oct distribution zone), 2.71 (50% Fib retrace), 2.85–2.86 (61.8% Fib and September pivot region)
  • Supports: 2.50–2.51 (round number and intraday shelf), 2.44–2.47 (late Asian/early EU session shelf), 2.40–2.41 (mid-Oct pivot), 2.31–2.35 (late Oct/early Nov demand), 2.21–2.24 (cycle lows area)

2. Intraday (Hourly, last 24h)

• Price action: A steady grind higher from ~2.42 into the 2.56–2.58 pocket by 20:00, then a sharp rejection at 21:00 back to ~2.52 with elevated volume, suggesting a liquidity sweep/stop run into a well-defined resistance.
• Micro-structure:
  • R1: 2.557–2.576 (tested repeatedly; rejection wick)
  • R2: 2.60–2.62 (air pocket to late-Oct supply)
  • S1: 2.50–2.51 (hourly close base and round number magnet)
  • S2: 2.45–2.47 (earlier session basing)
  • S3: ~2.42 (VWAP-below region from the Asian session earlier in the day)

Momentum and trend tools

• Moving averages (qualitative estimates):
  • Daily 20SMA ≈ 2.49–2.52; price has reclaimed or is hovering just above this, indicating short-term momentum improving.
  • Daily 50SMA likely in the 2.80–2.95 region, well above spot, confirming the broader downtrend is intact but the short-term bounce is live.
  • Hourly 20EMA > 50EMA for most of the session until the late rejection; the slope has flattened but not decisively rolled over. Short-term uptrend remains but needs an early-session higher low to sustain.
• RSI:
  • Daily RSI likely mid-50s after the recent bounce—out of oversold, not yet overbought, leaving room for upside continuation.
  • Hourly RSI hit overbought near the 2.57 print, then mean-reverted toward neutral on the pullback; that’s classic behavior after hitting a resistance shelf.
• MACD:
  • Daily MACD histogram turning positive with a nascent bullish cross, consistent with a developing upswing off cycle lows.
  • Hourly MACD rolled over post-20:00 rejection but hasn’t deeply crossed down; suggests consolidation rather than trend reversal if S1 holds.

Volatility and range analysis

• Daily ATR(14) (est.): ~0.18–0.22, inflated by the October event but moderating. A 24h move from 2.50 to 2.62 (0.12) sits comfortably within current ATR, making a retest of 2.57–2.62 feasible in the next day if support holds.
• Intraday range: The day printed a ~0.22 range (2.357–2.577). Expect smaller follow-through range tomorrow unless a fresh catalyst arrives; a 0.10–0.16 net range is probable, favoring a buy-the-dip, sell-the-rip approach.

Market profile / VWAP intuition

• Session behavior suggests VWAP gravitated around 2.53–2.54 intraday during the ascent. Late-day close slightly below that level signifies short-term weakness, but a reclaim of VWAP early next session typically re-opens the path to re-test R1.
• Value development looks to be migrating higher versus prior days (11/08–11/09), a constructive signal for continuation as long as S1 (2.50–2.51) holds on a closing basis.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price likely below the Kumo (cloud) given broader downtrend; Tenkan has crossed above Kijun or is close, which is an early bullish signal but still below the cloud (so a “weaker” bullish setup). Lagging Span still wrestling with prior price congestion. Net: early-stage recovery within a larger bearish regime; expect resistance to be sticky but tradable.

Bollinger Bands (daily, qualitative)

• Price pressed toward the upper band with today’s rally and faded back toward the middle band (around the 20SMA). This signals a healthy consolidation after a band touch; if the middle band area (2.49–2.52) holds, the next band test higher is likely within 24–48h.

Fibonacci mapping (swing 2025-08-14 high to 2025-11-04 low)

• Using Aug 14 swing high ~3.346 and Nov 4 swing low ~2.076:
  • 38.2% = ~2.561 → Today’s high (2.5769) rejected precisely in this zone; strong confluence resistance.
  • 50% = ~2.711 → Next major target on sustained breakout.
  • 61.8% = ~2.857 → Deeper target aligning with September pivots if momentum trend matures.
• Interpretation: First test rejection at 38.2% is normal; a shallow pullback to the 2.50 area and subsequent reclaim often leads to a second attempt that either tags 2.60–2.62 or squeezes to 2.71 over multiple sessions.

Elliott wave (tactical framing)

• From the Nov 4 low (~2.21), labeling an impulsive structure:
  • Wave 1: 2.21 → ~2.345 (Nov 5)
  • Wave 2: Pullback to ~2.21 (Nov 6)
  • Wave 3: Advance to today’s ~2.577
  • Wave 4: Ongoing pullback into 2.50–2.52 region
  • Wave 5 (projected): 2.58–2.62 tag in the next 24h, possibly extending to 2.65 on momentum
• Invalidation: A clean break and hourly close below ~2.47 would jeopardize the bullish wave count short term.

Supply/demand and liquidity dynamics

• The 2.56–2.58 shelf is a clear supply wall. The first probe swept stops and drew in breakout longs; the subsequent fade suggests lingering offers. However, absorption near 2.50–2.52 and a higher low would build the case for another test.
• Late-session selloff had elevated volume but did not break intraday structural support; that hints at short-term profit-taking rather than trend reversal.

Pattern landscape

• Potential inverse head-and-shoulders on the daily, with the neckline roughly 2.50–2.53:
  • Left shoulder: 11/04–11/05 area
  • Head: 11/06 low 2.158 (intraday)
  • Right shoulder: 11/08–11/09 2.24–2.28 basing
  • Today’s intraday push briefly cleared 2.53 but failed to close above decisively. A firm daily/4h close above 2.55 would confirm and measure toward ~2.70.
• Intraday bull flag: Post-run consolidation between ~2.50 and ~2.56 fits a classic continuation flag if VWAP is reclaimed.

Relative positioning to key moving averages

• Above the daily 20SMA and near its middle Bollinger band: constructive for short-term long setups.
• Still below the daily 50SMA and well below the 200SMA (not computed here but implied), which caps upside expectations; strong resistances remain higher.

Risk management and positioning logic

• Longs want:
  • A controlled dip into 2.50–2.51, holding 2.49 on a closing basis (hourly).
  • VWAP reclaim early next session and a push back into 2.56–2.58.
• Shorts want:
  • To fade 2.56–2.58 again with a tight stop above 2.58 and target 2.50. However, this goes against the emergent higher-low structure on daily; risk of squeeze if 2.58 gives way.
• Probability-weighted pathway (next 24h):
  • Base case (55%): Early dip into 2.50–2.51, then grind higher to re-test 2.56–2.58; partial breakthrough to 2.60–2.62 late session.
  • Bearish alternate (25%): Lose 2.49 on hourly close, slide to 2.45–2.47, then range.
  • Bullish squeeze (20%): Straight reclaim over 2.56 with strong momentum, fast move to 2.62–2.65.

Confluence summary

• Bullish:
  • Higher lows on daily since 11/04
  • Reclaim/hover near daily 20SMA and mid-BB
  • Daily MACD turning up; RSI mid-range with room
  • Elliott count supports one more push (wave 5) toward 2.60–2.62
• Bearish:
  • Strong supply at 2.56–2.58 (38.2% Fib confluence, rejection wick)
  • Still below 50SMA and cloud; larger trend down
  • Close below intraday VWAP suggests initial weakness

Trade plan (next 24 hours)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip in alignment with short-term uptrend within a broader corrective regime.
• Entry: Limit buy near 2.505 (within S1, above the critical 2.49 invalidation area), anticipating an early-session liquidity probe.
• Target: 2.615 (below the 2.62–2.65 resistance cluster to improve fill probability and front-run supply). This sits within ATR and aligns with a successful re-test/penetration of the 2.56–2.58 wall.
• Invalidation (not required by prompt but vital): A sustained hourly close <2.475 would weaken the long setup; a hard stop could be parked ~2.458 to preserve an attractive R:R.
• Rationale: Confluence of daily momentum improvement, intraday support shelf, Fibonacci roadmap, and typical behavior after first resistance rejection (consolidate then re-attack). The plan risks a shallow pullback continuing, but the structure favors a second test higher within 24h if 2.49–2.51 holds.

Price prediction (24h)

• Expected path: 2.49–2.51 retest early → reclaim 2.54–2.55 → 2.56–2.58 showdown → extension to 2.60–2.62 if volume returns. Failure path is a slip to 2.45–2.47 if 2.49 breaks.

Decision: Buy (Long)

• Optimal open price (limit): 2.505
• Take profit (close): 2.615