XRP poised for another leg lower: sell the 2.21–2.23 bounce, target 2.145 within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish, favoring a drift lower with spikes sold. Expect a 2.23–2.14 range, with a higher probability of probing 2.17 then 2.14 if 2.20 breaks cleanly.
• Plan: Sell rallies into 2.21–2.23 resistance; first target 2.145. If momentum accelerates, 2.12 extension is possible, but base case closes above 2.12.

Market structure and context

• Big picture daily: Since mid-September, XRP transitioned from a 2.85–3.10 range to a persistent downtrend. A capitulation-like event on 2025-10-10 (range to 1.53 intraday, record volume) reset volatility and shifted control to sellers. Subsequent rebounds topped at 2.53 (2025-11-10), a textbook rejection near the 38.2% retrace of the 3.183 → 2.076 leg, confirming primary downtrend.
• Intermediate structure: Lower highs 2.64 (10-25), 2.53 (11-10), 2.39 (11-11), 2.33 (11-13), and lower lows 2.21 (11-04), 2.21–2.23 (11-15 to 11-16 area) define a descending channel. Price is hovering near the lower boundary now.
• Intraday (hourly) 11-16: Failed recovery 2.27 around EU open, then lower highs into US afternoon, with a sweep down to 2.17 and a tepid bounce. Structure is a bear flag breakdown turned drift, with supply capping 2.21–2.23 repeatedly.

Support and resistance mapping

• Resistance: 2.21–2.23 (intraday supply, hourly LH cluster), 2.26–2.27 (failed bounce zone), 2.31–2.33 (daily supply shelf), 2.39–2.41 (daily congestion), 2.50–2.53 (38.2% of 3.183 → 2.076; prior rejection).
• Support: 2.17–2.18 (today’s floor and channel lower bound), 2.14–2.15 (measured move from flag and pivot S3 vicinity), 2.10–2.11 (liquidity pocket), 2.076 swing low (11-04).

Multi-timeframe trend diagnostics

• Daily moving averages:
  • Price < 20D EMA (~2.40–2.45 est), < 50D SMA (~2.75–2.85 est). Bearish stack and slope down. Implication: Trend followers sell rallies until price reclaims and holds above 20D EMA.
• Hourly moving averages:
  • Price < 20H and 50H EMAs; these are capping bounces around 2.21–2.23 and 2.26. EMA ribbon compressed and sloping down; suggests resistance on contact and continuation on rejections.

Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI: Bearish range behavior (mid-30s to low-40s). No material bullish divergence versus the 11-04 low; momentum did not confirm strength on the 11-10 bounce. This supports selling strength.
• Hourly RSI: Mid-30s to low-40s, consistent with trend mode. Brief oversold prints near 2.17 sparked only shallow bounces, typical of a band-walk lower.
• MACD daily: Below zero, histogram negative and widening after the 11-10 failure. Momentum remains with sellers.
• MACD hourly: Below zero; weak attempts to cross that stall beneath zero line. Intraday rallies lack thrust.
• Stochastic (hourly): Recycled from oversold to mid without price progress, a bearish tell in trend regimes.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14D) estimate: ~0.16. Current 24h realized range 0.115 (2.276 high to 2.161 low), confirming compressed but directional conditions.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Mid-band ~2.45, lower band around mid-2.20s. Price is riding the lower band, exhibiting a band walk. In such regimes, oversold can persist and bounces are faded.

Volume and flow

• Volume: Massive spike on 10-10, then structurally lighter but with distribution on down days. OBV proxy drifts lower. Today’s heavier hours coincided with sell waves, not accumulation, reinforcing the trend.
• Volume profile: Visible high-volume nodes near 2.50 and 2.35 act as overhead magnets only if reclaimed; current zone ~2.20 is a low-volume pocket where price can slide to 2.17/2.15 quickly when bids withdraw.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• Primary swing 3.183 → 2.076:
  • 38.2% = 2.499, 50% = 2.629, 61.8% = 2.739. The 11-10 rally failed almost exactly at 38.2%, classic continuation signal.
• Recent swing 2.526 (11-10) → 2.161 (today): A 50% rebound would be ~2.344; bounces have capped far below, underscoring weakness. A 1.0 measured move of the last intraday flag projects 2.14–2.15.
• Extensions beneath 2.076 (if momentum expands later this week): 1.272 ≈ 1.98, 1.618 ≈ 1.90. Not base case in 24h, but map for contingency.

Ichimoku and trend filters

• Daily: Price below cloud; span A below span B; Tenkan below Kijun and pointing down. Cloud overhead ~2.50–2.60 is thick. Strong bearish alignment.
• Hourly: Price below cloud; rallies stall at or before Tenkan/Kijun convergence around 2.21–2.23. Supports sell-the-rip tactics.

Pivot points (classic, based on 11-15 H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 2.2508; R1 ≈ 2.282; R2 ≈ 2.329; S1 ≈ 2.204; S2 ≈ 2.172; S3 ≈ 2.125.
• Price spent most of the session below P and below S1, oscillating around S2 and threatening a push toward S3. This is bearish beneath 2.204.

Pattern recognition

• Daily descending channel since late October; price now near lower rail. A brief reaction is possible, but channel breaks in the direction of trend are common when momentum and volume align; next shelf is 2.14–2.15.
• Hourly bear flag breakdown during the US session; measured move aligns with 2.14–2.15.
• No convincing bullish divergence on hourly or 4h to preclude another leg down; bounces are corrective.

VWAP and anchoring

• Anchored VWAP from 10-10 event sits well above current price (mid-2.40s area), confirming that the average post-shock buyer is underwater. Sellers likely defend every approach to 2.23/2.26 as a first line, and 2.33 as a second line.

ADX and trend strength

• ADX daily estimated low-20s and curling up: transitioning from range to trend. This supports continuation rather than mean-reversion bets.

Triple-screen synthesis

• Higher timeframe (daily): Downtrend, bearish momentum.
• Intermediate screen (4h/hourly proxy): Oscillators relieve from oversold but fail at shallow resistance.
• Execution: Short the rally into hourly resistance 2.21–2.23 with stops above supply. This aligns with Elder’s triple screen approach.

Risk management and scenario analysis

• Base case (60%): Rejection 2.21–2.23, grind to 2.17, break to 2.14–2.15 where responsive bids appear. Close near 2.15–2.18.
• Bear extension (25%): One-way push through 2.14 to 2.12 on liquidity vacuum; small bounce late session.
• Squeeze (15%): reclaim 2.23, probe 2.26; momentum stalls below 2.27; only above 2.27–2.31 would shorts feel meaningful pressure.
• Indicative stop for plan (not part of order fields): Above 2.245 conservative, or 2.262 aggressive confirmation. From a 2.215 entry to 2.145 target yields roughly 3.2% reward; with a 2.245 stop, risk ~1.4%, R:R ~2.3.

24-hour forecast and trade plan

• Expect supply to defend 2.21–2.23. If price spikes on thin liquidity, that improves entry quality for shorts. Intraday breakdown trigger is a sustained push below 2.20 and 2.187; momentum likely carries to 2.15 area.
• Therefore, the optimal approach is to Sell (short) into the 2.215 region with a take-profit at 2.145. If price fails to bounce to entry, a secondary tactic is a break-retest short below 2.178–2.185, targeting the same 2.145 zone.

Why not buy here?

• Although price is near lower channel support, there is no confirmed bullish divergence nor reclaim of key intraday MAs. The higher timeframe trend, momentum, and rejection at Fibonacci 38.2% all argue against a bottom-fish in the next 24h.

Key invalidation

• A firm reclaim and hold above 2.27–2.31 (hourly closes) would negate the short bias and open a path to 2.33–2.39. That is not the base case today.