XRP Price Analysis Powered by AI

XRP Poised to Fade: Short the 2.28–2.31 Bounce, Target 2.18 as 2.21 Floor Buckles

Executive summary and bias

Regime: XRP has been in a persistent daily downtrend since late October, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. The current price 2.249 is sitting just above a multi-touch support band at 2.21–2.22 and well below all short- and medium-term moving averages. Near-term bias: sell strength into 2.28–2.31, targeting a retest of 2.19–2.21 over the next 24 hours.
Expected 24h path: Probable early-day bounce toward 2.27–2.29 (pivot R1 zone), followed by selling pressure back into 2.20–2.22; a break of 2.21 opens 2.16. Projected 24h range: 2.17–2.30.

Market structure: From the late-October rebound high (2.65 on 10/26–10/27 cluster) XRP has formed a sequence of lower highs: 2.634 (10/27), 2.606 (10/28), 2.552 (10/29), 2.509 (10/31), 2.529/2.577 (11/02–11/10), 2.392 (11/11), 2.387 (11/12). Lows have stepped down to 2.076 (11/04), then stabilized with multiple tests in 2.16–2.22 (11/14–11/16). This maps to a descending channel/triangle with a flat base near 2.21.
Key swing points: Flash-crash washout on 10/10 (L=1.528, C=2.359) created an extreme wick; subsequent recovery failed under 2.65. The post-11/04 bounce stalled at ~2.58/2.53 and rolled over, indicating supply dominance.
Pattern read: A descending triangle is emerging: horizontal support ~2.21 vs descending supply line from 2.65. Measured move on breakdown equals height of the latest consolidation (approx 2.31–2.21 = 0.10), projecting 2.11 if 2.21 fails. Within the past week, multiple small-bodied candles around 2.21–2.39 denote indecision but with lower highs -> bearish continuation favored.

Immediate resistance: 2.27–2.31 (prior congestion, pivot R1 around 2.275, 10-day MA below 2.33, Tenkan area). Above that: 2.33–2.35 (20-day MA underside, supply shelf), then 2.50–2.53 (major supply from 11/02–11/11), and 2.60–2.65 (structural lower high zone).
Immediate support: 2.21–2.22 (multi-touch base 11/14–11/16, 23.6% Fib of 10/26→11/04 leg), then 2.16 (11/16 low), then 2.076 (11/04 low). The extreme tail 1.528 (10/10) is tail risk.
Volume context: Highest volume days are clustered around the 10/10 crash and the early-Nov markdown, establishing a high-volume node in the 2.35–2.60 region. Current trading near 2.20–2.25 sits below that HVN, where acceptance is lower and breakdowns can accelerate.

Short-term SMAs (approx): 5D ~2.28, 10D ~2.33. Price 2.249 is below both -> bearish near-term momentum.
Medium-term SMA (20D) estimated ~2.45–2.50; 50D estimated ~2.80. Price is below all -> broader downtrend intact.
EMA slope: Fast EMAs falling and below slow EMAs; rallies into 2.28–2.33 are likely sold.

RSI(14), daily (approx): mid- to high-30s, recovering slightly from earlier oversold. This indicates bearish momentum, but not extreme; room exists for a small relief bounce into resistance before sellers re-engage.
Stochastic (approx): curling up from oversold territory but still below midline; consistent with a weak bounce setup.
MACD (12,26,9): Histogram negative but contracting versus early-Nov; signal lines below zero. This often precedes a “bounce to sell” rather than a trend reversal.

ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.17–0.21. Implies 24h expected move ~7–9%. A typical 1-ATR swing from 2.25 suggests 2.08–2.46 extremes, but recent realized ranges cluster near 0.12–0.20.
Bollinger Bands (20,2) (est.): Middle band ~2.48; lower band ~2.10–2.15. Price is hugging the lower half of the envelope, often a continuation zone. A tag of the lower band on a breakdown would align with 2.16/2.11 targets.

Price is below the Kumo; Senkou Span A < Span B (bearish cloud). Kijun-sen roughly mid 2.40s, Tenkan-sen ~2.27–2.30. Current price below Tenkan -> bearish. Chikou span lags below price and cloud -> trend confirmation bearish. Any bounce toward Tenkan/Kijun is sellable.

PSAR dots are likely above price since late October, consistent with trend-down.
ADX near low-20s with -DI > +DI would characterize a steady, not explosive, downtrend; scope for trend continuation after shallow bounces.
Vortex VI- above VI+ confirms sell-the-rip conditions.

Swing 10/26 high 2.659 to 11/04 low 2.076:
- 23.6%: 2.214; 38.2%: 2.299; 50%: 2.368; 61.8%: 2.437; 78.6%: 2.534.
- Price currently sits just above 23.6% and has repeatedly failed at the 38.2%/50% zones in November. This anchors 2.29–2.37 as sell areas.
Larger swing 9/13 high ~3.183 to 11/04 low 2.076:
- 23.6%: ~2.337, 38.2%: ~2.504. Market has been capped below these -> confirms bearish control on higher timeframe.

Pivot P ≈ 2.218. R1 ≈ 2.275; S1 ≈ 2.160; R2 ≈ 2.333; S2 ≈ 2.103.
Today’s bounce target aligns with R1 2.275; this confluence with Tenkan/38.2% Fib favors an optimal short entry in 2.28–2.30.

Recent daily candles near the 2.21 base have small real bodies and lower highs. On Heikin-Ashi, consecutive red candles with upper wicks shrinking indicate waning bounce energy and continuation risk.

Post-crash markdown (SOW on 10/10) led to weak rallies and successive LPSY (last points of supply) into early November. Current behavior around 2.21–2.25 looks like a potential LPSY within a descending triangle. A breakdown through the support shelf would be a continuation of the markdown phase.

From 10/26 high: A down to 11/04 (2.076), B corrective rally into 11/10 (~2.577/2.526), C down unfolding with subwaves carving out a base at 2.21–2.16. If valid, a minor wave iii within C would target a fresh test below 2.21 toward 2.16–2.11.

Base case (55%): Mean-reversion pop into 2.27–2.29, followed by selloff to 2.19–2.21; settlement near 2.20–2.22.
Bear extension (30%): Early weakness breaks 2.21; momentum takes price to 2.16; intraday low 2.14–2.16, bounce back to 2.18–2.20.
Bull surprise (15%): Strong squeeze through 2.31 and 2.33 (R2/past supply), extending toward 2.38–2.40; requires above-average volume to invalidate the short setup.

Bias: Sell strength; trend-following continuation with tight risk.
Optimal entry (sell limit): 2.285 (confluence: pivot R1 vicinity 2.275, Tenkan/38.2% Fib ~2.29, prior micro-supply 2.28–2.31). If price doesn’t bounce and instead breaks 2.21 directly, a breakout-sell could be considered on a retest, but the primary plan is to fade the bounce.
Take-profit (TP): 2.185 (just above the 2.16–2.21 support zone to get filled ahead of the crowd; aligns with ~0.10 drop, ~0.5–0.6 ATR move).
Suggested stop-loss (SL, not required by output but critical): 2.335 (above R2 ~2.333 and the descending supply line; invalidates the immediate short thesis). R:R ≈ (2.285→2.185 = 0.100) / (2.335–2.285 = 0.050) = 2:1.
Invalidation/flip: A daily close above 2.335 with rising volume would shift bias to neutral/long toward 2.50–2.53.

With price below key MAs, momentum negative but not capitulative, and a clean confluence sell zone at 2.28–2.31, probabilities favor shorting a bounce for a 24h retest of the 2.20 handle. Risk is clearly defined; reward is ~2x risk to a conservative TP placed ahead of the 2.16 spike low.