XRP Teeters Below $2: Sell the Bounce Before the Next Leg Lower

Comprehensive multi-tool technical review for XRP over daily and intraday horizons, using the provided dataset through 2025-11-21 22:12 UTC. I will structure the analysis step-by-step, layer indicators, and converge on a 24-hour outlook and trade plan (open/close levels).

1. Price action and structure

• Higher timeframe trend (daily): From late August highs near 3.12–3.18, XRP printed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The sharp break on 2025-10-10 (intraday low 1.528, close ~2.359 on record volume) reset market structure into a persistent downtrend. Subsequent rallies (late Oct to mid-Nov) consistently failed below the prior distribution (2.65, 2.53, 2.50), and the market has now accepted sub-2.20 and, critically, sub-2.00.
• Recent daily closes (Nov 1–20) stair-step lower: 2.505, 2.529, 2.309, 2.211, 2.345, 2.211, 2.314, 2.285, 2.368, 2.526, 2.392, 2.387, 2.331, 2.244, 2.235, 2.217, 2.162, 2.216, 2.108, 1.999. Nov 21 intraday last: ~1.957. Structure = firm lower low and fresh breakdown.
• Intraday (hourly, 2025-11-21): Low print 1.838 around 12:00, then a rebound to ~1.981 by 17:00; consolidation 1.94–1.96 into 22:12. This looks like a bear-flag/weak base beneath the round $2.00 pivot, implying overhead supply near 1.98–2.02.
• Key levels: • Resistance: 2.00–2.04 (round number + prior day pivot P ≈ 2.041), 2.10–2.21 (R1 ≈ 2.105 from 11/20; 50%–61.8% bounce region of latest swing), 2.30–2.35 (mid-Nov supply/anchored VWAP zone), 2.50–2.53 (failed Nov rally cap). • Support: 1.872 (classic S2 from 11/20), 1.84 (today’s low cluster), 1.80 psychological; below that, vacuum risk to 1.75–1.70.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• Simple MAs (approx from closes): • 5D SMA ≈ 2.14 (> price 1.96) – bearish. • 10D SMA ≈ 2.23 (> price) – bearish. • 20D SMA ≈ 2.295 (> price) – bearish. The “price below falling short- and medium-term MAs” configuration confirms a downtrend. Reversions into these MAs are likely to be sold.
• EMAs (qualitative): 9EMA < 21EMA < 50EMA with expanding separation post sub-2.10 break suggests momentum trend remains down. No bullish cross setup evident.
• ADX/DMI (qualitative): Trend strength likely elevated (ADX > 25) with -DI above +DI, consistent with trend-following shorts still in control.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): Given the string of lower closes and fresh lows, RSI likely in low 30s or sub-30 (oversold zone). Oversold alone is not a buy signal in trends; it often precedes bear-flag bounces that resolve down.
• Stochastic (daily): Likely embedded low, with intraday uptick after the 1.838 low; this supports a near-term bounce into resistance, not necessarily a trend reversal.
• MACD (12,26,9): Histogram negative for weeks; potential slight contraction today due to intraday bounce, but signal still below zero. No confirmed bull cross on daily.
• Momentum takeaway: Short-term bounce risk is present, but overall momentum remains bearish.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~0.17–0.22 based on recent daily ranges. Expect a 24h band of roughly ±0.18 around spot in normal conditions; tail risk expands during breaks.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Mid-band ~20SMA ≈ 2.295. Given the downshift, lower band likely ~1.85–1.90; price hugged/penetrated the lower band (touch to 1.838). “Walking the band” implies trend continuation is more probable than instantaneous mean reversion, but band pierces often see reflex bounces toward 2.05–2.15.
• Keltner Channels(20EMA,1.5ATR): Lower KC estimate ~2.27 - 1.5*0.17 ≈ 2.02; price is below/borderline this lower envelope, signaling a trend extreme condition. Extremes tend to snap back to the channel then trend resume.

5. Volume and participation

• Oct 10 capitulation volume (~15.6B) set the trend pivot. Subsequent heavy-volume down days into Nov 3–7, Nov 13–14, Nov 19–20 mark distribution and confirmation of supply dominance. Today’s elevated turnover on a fresh low further indicates continuation bias; however, intraday bounce on decent volume suggests short-covering into $2.00.
• OBV (qualitative): Trending down since early October; no accumulation signature yet.

6. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below cloud; Cloud is above price and probably thickening; Tenkan < Kijun; Lagging span below price/cloud. Full bearish stack. Pullbacks toward the Kijun (likely ~2.20–2.30) are typically sold in this regime.

7. Fibonacci mapping of the latest downswing

• Using 11/10 high ~2.577 and today’s low 1.838: range = 0.739. • 23.6% ≈ 1.838 + 0.174 ≈ 2.012 (around the $2 round-number cap). • 38.2% ≈ 2.120. • 50% ≈ 2.208. • 61.8% ≈ 2.296. Confluence: $2.00 aligns with the 23.6% retrace and prior pivot; 2.10–2.21 aligns with 38.2–50%; 2.30 with 61.8% and the 20D SMA. These are textbook sell-the-rally zones inside a dominant downtrend.

8. Elliott wave perspective (heuristic)

• Potential impulse down: • Wave 1: 10/10 crash to ~2.36. • Wave 2: 10/25–10/26 retrace to ~2.65. • Wave 3: 11/04 low ~2.21. • Wave 4: 11/10 retrace to ~2.53. • Wave 5: extends below 2.00 with an intraday low ~1.838 on 11/21.
• If a 5th wave just printed, a reflex A-B-C bounce can unfold over days; however, within 24 hours, the typical script is a bounce into shallow retracement (2.00–2.12) followed by another push lower or at least a retest of the lows. Risk of a marginal new low remains if the bounce fails quickly.

9. Regression channel and pattern work

• A linear regression (last 30–45 sessions) would show a firmly negative slope. Price is hugging the lower half of the channel since mid-Nov.
• The intraday structure since 12:00 forms a rising consolidation under 1.98–2.00, resembling a bear flag. Flag targets typically project the prior pole: a breakdown from ~1.95 could target 1.85–1.82 (in line with ATR and the earlier low cluster).

10. Pivots and round-number effects

• Prior session pivots (from 11/20 H/L/C = 2.147/1.978/1.999): P ≈ 2.041, S1 ≈ 1.935, S2 ≈ 1.872, R1 ≈ 2.105, R2 ≈ 2.210. Today traded below S1 and near S2; current price is between S1 and P. This underscores overhead resistance density into 1.99–2.10.
• Round-number magnetism at $2.00: now resistance after the breakdown, likely to attract sell orders.

11. Ancillary indicators

• Parabolic SAR: Above price (bearish) in daily context.
• CCI(20): Likely below -100; trend continuation context.
• Anchored VWAP (qualitative) from the 10/10 break likely sits ~2.35–2.40; price well below, underscoring bearish regime and reliable sell zones on reversion attempts.

12. Scenario analysis for the next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Bear-flag bounce toward 1.98–2.01 fails; price rolls over to retest 1.87–1.85. If liquidity pockets thin, a wick can probe 1.82–1.80 before buyers defend. Close likely sub-1.95.
• Alternate bounce (30%): Squeeze through $2.00 and into 2.05–2.12 (38.2% retrace / R1 area). Sellers reassert near 2.10–2.12; daily close still below 2.05. Larger reversal unlikely without a strong reclaim and hold over 2.21–2.30.
• Tail risk (15%): Vertical flush resuming trend with little bounce, printing 1.80–1.75 if $1.84 fails early and broader crypto risk-off persists.

13. Trade thesis and plan

• Thesis: Dominant daily downtrend, fresh breakdown below $2.00, momentum still bearish. Intraday oversold bounce into first supply is a favorable location for risk-defined short re-entry. Probability favors a retest of 1.85 within 24 hours if the bounce stalls beneath $2.00–2.02.
• Entry logic: Use a limit sell into the underside of $2.00 (1.98–1.99 zone). This aligns with: • 23.6% retracement (~2.01), • Prior session pivot P (~2.04) just above, providing a clean invalidation band, • Rejection cluster seen today near ~1.98–1.99.
• Target logic: First objective at 1.85 aligns with: • Lower-BB vicinity (approx), • S2 ~1.872 and today’s low cluster 1.838 (we set TP just above deep supports to increase fill odds), • Measured flag target range.
• Risk notes: A decisive reclaim and acceptance above 2.04–2.10 would warn of a deeper bounce toward 2.20. In that scenario, shorts should reconsider or reduce. While the request doesn’t ask for stops, a professional stop would sit 2.08–2.12 depending on aggressiveness.

14. Confirmation to watch post-entry

• Weakness at 1.98–2.00 (lower highs on 5–15m), fading volume on the bounce, RSI rolling over from 50s intraday, and failure to hold above hourly VWAP would validate the short. Conversely, a swift drive through 2.02 with strong breadth increases squeeze risk to 2.10–2.12.

Bottom line: Trend is down, $2.00 flipped to resistance, intraday rally is likely a sell. Execute a short-on-bounce with a take-profit just ahead of the 1.84–1.87 demand band.

24-hour directional bias: Down after a failing bounce.