XRP: Double-Bottom at 1.95 Sets Up a 24h Relief Rally Toward 2.17

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (relief bounce continuation) while medium-term trend remains down.
• Setup: Double-bottom attempt around 1.95 with intraday breakout above 2.06 pivot; aiming a mean-reversion push toward first Fibonacci retracement cluster (2.17–2.24).
• Plan: Buy dips toward 2.06–2.05 (near intraday VWAP / prior micro-range high). Target 2.17 in the next 24 hours. Invalidation if price closes an hour below ~2.02 or the daily loses 1.95.

1. Market context and structure

• Higher timeframe (daily): From late Aug through early Oct, XRP traded 2.8–3.1 before a sharp breakdown on Oct 10 (flash sell to ~1.53, close ~2.36). Since then, a persistent series of lower highs/lower lows has unfolded. Recent leg: 11/10 close 2.526 → 11/21 close 1.950 (down ~22.8%), followed by a stabilization.
• Current day (11/23): Bounce from ~1.95 to ~2.08; price is attempting to transition from “capitulation and compression” to “mean reversion.”
• Market structure:
  • Daily trend: Down (lower highs since early November).
  • Intraday (1H): Transitioning to uptrend with higher lows from ~2.02 and successive pushes to 2.07–2.08. A break/hold above 2.10–2.12 would confirm a local structure shift.
• Key levels (spot 2.0786):
  • Supports: 2.06–2.05 (intraday VWAP/previous hour highs), 2.03–2.02 (hourly base), 2.00 (psych), 1.95 (double-bottom shelf), 1.90.
  • Resistances: 2.10–2.12 (micro neckline/offer stack), 2.17 (0.382 retrace), 2.23–2.24 (0.50 + daily SMA20 proximity), 2.30–2.31 (0.618), 2.35 (prior daily pivot), 2.50.

2. Trend and moving averages

• SMA(20) daily (approx): ~2.226 (computed from last 20 closes). Price 2.08 is ~6.6% below the 20SMA, reflecting an ongoing bearish medium-term bias but setting up room for mean reversion.
• SMA(50) daily (est.): ~2.55–2.60 (dragged down but still anchored by Sep/Oct prices). The 50SMA is meaningfully above spot; any sustained rally likely stalls before it.
• EMA stack (qualitative): Fast EMAs on daily (e.g., 8/12) are beneath slow (21/26), but fast are curling up after multi-day decline—consistent with relief bounce attempts.
• Interpretation: Trend is down on the daily, but the distance to the 20SMA and rising intraday EMAs support a tactical long back toward the mean.

3. Momentum

• RSI(14) daily (approx): low-to-mid 40s, turning up from near-oversold readings on 11/21. This suggests bearish momentum has eased; the oscillator has room to reach 50 before overhang reasserts.
• RSI(14) 1H: Rising and oscillating between 50–65 on upswings; aligns with intraday bullish bias.
• MACD daily: Below zero, histogram contracting (less negative), signaling bearish momentum is waning. A signal-line cross may be several sessions away, but near-term momentum improvement favors a bounce.
• MACD 1H: Crossed above zero earlier in the session, supporting the current intraday uptrend.
• Stochastic (14,3,3) daily: Recovering from sub-20 toward mid-band; tailwind for a 24h pop before entering potential overbought on the intraday frames.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (approx): Mid ~2.23; lower band estimated ~1.73–1.80; upper ~2.66–2.70. Price rebounded off the lower quartile toward the midline. Mean reversion to the mid-band (2.22–2.23) is a plausible 24–48h path if resistance steps are cleared.
• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~0.16. A 1xATR move from 2.08 projects to ~2.24 on the upside or ~1.92 on the downside in a single session; this brackets our 24h targets and risk levels well.

5. Volume, OBV, and flow

• Volume: Selling volume peaked into the 11/20–11/21 downdraft (capitulation-like). 11/22 was quieter, and 11/23 intraday volume improved on up bars—constructive for a bounce.
• OBV (qualitative): Flattening and beginning to curl up on intraday, consistent with accumulation from 2.00–2.06.
• Volume signature: Demand emerged above 2.02 after each dip; offers stacked around 2.08–2.10. A quick vacuum exists near 2.11–2.16 (low-volume pocket), potentially enabling expedient tests of 2.17 if 2.10–2.12 gives way.

6. Fibonacci mapping (swing 11/10 high 2.526 → 11/21 low 1.950, range = 0.576)

• 0.382: 1.950 + 0.220 = ~2.170
• 0.500: 1.950 + 0.288 = ~2.238
• 0.618: 1.950 + 0.356 = ~2.306
• Confluence:
  • 2.17 aligns with initial supply and is a realistic 24h stretch target.
  • 2.23–2.24 aligns with SMA20 and the 0.50 Fib—stronger headwind, more likely a 24–48h objective.

7. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price below cloud; span ahead likely bearish. Tenkan < Kijun, but Tenkan flattening—early sign of loss of downside impulse. This positioning favors countertrend pops but warns against assuming trend reversal.
• 1H: Price riding above the cloud after London/US session push; Kijun ~2.05–2.06, acting as magnet on pullbacks. Holding above the hourly cloud supports buying dips.

8. Market profile / liquidity and VWAP

• VWAP (intraday 11/23, est.): ~2.05–2.06. Spot at 2.08 is slightly above VWAP; a pullback to VWAP is textbook buy-the-dip context if the trend is intact.
• Liquidity:
  • Below: resting bids 2.06 → 2.02; deep liquidity at 2.00 and the shelf at 1.95.
  • Above: offers 2.08–2.10; then a thinner pocket up to ~2.16–2.17, followed by thicker supply 2.23–2.24.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Double bottom: 1.95 lows on 11/21 and 11/22/23 establish a base. Neckline sits around 2.10–2.12.
  • Measured move: Height ~0.15–0.17 → target ~2.25–2.29 on a full break/hold. Partial target at 2.17 (fits 0.382 Fib and within 1x ATR from current).
• Falling wedge (micro, last 10 days): Break attempted intraday today; confirmation needs hourly close above 2.10–2.12 zone.
• Candlesticks: Post-capitulation small-bodied candles with upward follow-through; intraday green bodies dominating and higher lows—typical post-washout basing behavior.

10. Multi-signal confluence and interpretation

• Bullish factors (tactical):
  • Double-bottom at 1.95 with higher intraday lows.
  • RSI and MACD momentum basing and turning up.
  • Price reclaiming hourly cloud and holding above VWAP; OBV uptick.
  • Mean-reversion pull toward 20SMA/Fib cluster.
• Bearish constraints (structural):
  • Price still below daily 20/50 MAs and below the daily cloud.
  • Strong supply likely 2.17–2.24; upside beyond 2.24 in 24h is possible but less probable without a catalyst.
• Net: Probability-weighted path favors a continuation bounce into 2.10–2.17 with choppy pullbacks. Break and hold above 2.12 accelerates. Loss of 2.05 warns; loss of 2.02 likely re-tests 1.95.

11. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Drift higher with shallow dips; 2.06–2.05 holds; push to 2.10–2.12; momentum carry to ~2.17; stall there. Day closes near 2.12–2.16.
• Bullish extension (25%): Clean break 2.12, run through low-liquidity pocket to 2.20–2.23; wick into 2.24 if momentum/volume spike. Close ~2.18–2.22.
• Bearish fade (20%): Failure to hold 2.05; slip to 2.02; sweep 2.00 and possibly 1.95. Close 1.96–2.03. This scenario likely requires a risk-off impulse across majors.

12. Trade plan (tactical, 24h)

• Bias: Buy dips.
• Entry: 2.06–2.05 (near VWAP/Kijun/previous micro-range high). With spot ~2.078, a limit near 2.06 offers good R:R.
• Target (TP): 2.17 (0.382 Fib and first significant supply shelf). Aggressive traders could scale toward 2.22–2.24, but 2.17 is the higher-probability 24h capture.
• Invalidation (for risk control, not part of order fields): Hourly close <2.02 or firm break of 1.95 base.

Conclusion and 24h outlook

• Expect a continuation of the relief bounce toward 2.10–2.17 assuming 2.05–2.06 holds on pullbacks. The safer tactical play is to buy a dip at/near 2.06 with a 2.17 exit in the 24h window.