XRP’s W-Bottom Neckline Break: Position for the Dip and Ride the Push to the 61.8% Fib

XRP multi-timeframe technical deep dive (next 24h outlook)

1. Market structure and context

• Higher timeframe (daily): Since early October, XRP has been in a primary downtrend from ~3.0 to a capitulation low cluster near 1.95 on Nov 21–22. The last 3 sessions show a transition from basing to rebound: Nov 23 closed higher at 2.046, and today (Nov 24) price extended to 2.25. The sequence of lower lows appears to have printed a potential double bottom at ~1.95 with a breakout through the neckline area ~2.23–2.24.
• Intraday (hourly, Nov 24): A clean intraday trend day higher: higher highs and higher lows from ~2.05 to ~2.28, then a controlled pullback and hold above 2.24–2.25 into the close. Momentum remains constructive with buyers defending pullbacks.
• Key takeaway: Short-term trend has flipped bullish while the intermediate trend remains corrective/down. A relief rally is underway; the next 24h bias is modestly upward with likely consolidation pullbacks.

2. Price action diagnostics

• Double bottom and neckline break: Lows 1.95 (Nov 21–22) formed a W with neckline ~2.23–2.24. Today’s drive and hold above 2.24 confirms the breakout. Measured move (neckline ~2.24 minus bottom ~1.95 ≈ 0.29) projects to ~2.53 over days, but within 24h a realistic objective is into the 2.30–2.33 supply band.
• Intraday trend: Breakout leg from 16:00–20:00 UTC, mild flag into 21:00, and re-accumulation above 2.24 at 22:00–22:19. The 20:00 high printed 2.278 and price closed 2.252, maintaining most gains.
• Candles: Daily shows a strong bullish continuation session following a higher close Sunday. On hourly, candles rode the upper half of ranges with shallow retracements: trend day profile.

3. Moving averages (signal stacking)

• Daily SMA20 ≈ 2.26–2.28 (approx), price now slightly below/near it; SMA50 is materially higher (~2.60–2.70), reflecting the overarching downtrend. A mean-reversion push toward SMA20-30 is underway.
• Daily EMA8/EMA13: Turning up; likely EMA8 ≈ 2.19–2.21 and EMA13 ≈ 2.23–2.25; price reclaimed both, a short-term bullish trigger.
• Hourly EMA20 ≈ 2.13–2.17; SMA50 (hourly) ≈ 2.10–2.12. Price is well above both, confirming intraday momentum.
• Takeaway: Short-term momentum bullish above hourly MAs; daily picture is improving but not fully trend bullish yet.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) recovered from oversold; estimate mid-40s to low-50s. Bullish regime shift from sub-30 on Nov 21 toward neutral. No immediate overbought risk on daily.
• Hourly RSI(14) hovered 60–65 during US session run, then cooled to high-50s to low-60s on pullback, consistent with a healthy trend rather than blow-off.
• Stochastic (daily): Rising from oversold, supporting continuation; hourly Stoch pulled back from overbought and reset toward midline, allowing another attempt higher.
• Takeaway: Momentum favors a continued grind higher with occasional dips.

5. MACD

• Daily MACD remains below zero but histogram has been contracting (less negative), often a prelude to a bullish cross if follow-through continues. A double-bottom price structure with rising MACD histogram is classic bullish divergence behavior.
• Hourly MACD is positive and widening earlier; now stabilizing after the pullback, still constructive.
• Takeaway: Positive short-term impulse with room for daily follow-through.

6. Volatility and bands

• Daily ATR(14) elevated (~0.16–0.22), implying wide ranges; expect ±0.10–0.18 day moves are feasible. Within 24h, a 2.20–2.33 span is realistic.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Mid-band near SMA20 (~2.26–2.28). Price is re-approaching the mid-band from below; upper band likely ~2.49–2.52. A tag of the mid-band and possibly a probe toward 2.30–2.33 is consistent.
• Hourly bands: Price rode upper band during the thrust, then mean-reverted into the band; no sign of volatility blow-off.

7. Ichimoku (trend and structure)

• Daily: Price likely below the Kumo; Tenkan-sen turning up and crossing above price earlier; Kijun-sen estimated ~2.32–2.35. A magnet effect toward Kijun is common in rebounds. Chikou lag likely still below price but improving.
• Hourly: Price above cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; Span A rising. Pullbacks to Tenkan/Kijun (2.23–2.24 area) should find dip buyers initially.
• Takeaway: Hourly Ichimoku bullish; daily in transition with upside pull toward Kijun around 2.32.

8. ADX/DI and trend quality

• Daily ADX elevated from prior sell trend; -DI dominance fading; +DI curling up. Often, after strong downtrends, ADX stays high as direction flips, enabling a robust mean-reversion pop.
• Hourly +DI > -DI with ADX ~20–25: a healthy trend, not exhausted.

9. Volume, OBV, and money flow

• Volume today picked up on the push from 16:00–20:00, confirming participation. OBV on daily should be curling up after a prolonged decline; on hourly, OBV made higher highs into the 20:00 spike, a positive tell.
• MFI (not explicitly computed) likely in mid-50s to low-60s: inflows without immediate overbought stress.
• Read: Buyers are in control intraday; daily accumulation signs emerging.

10. Fibonacci mapping (confluence focus)

• Swing Nov 10 high 2.526 to Nov 21 low 1.950:
  • 38.2% = ~2.170
  • 50% = ~2.238
  • 61.8% = ~2.306
  • 78.6% = ~2.403 Current price 2.252 sits just above the 50% mark; next Fibonacci resistance sits at 2.306, closely aligning with daily Kijun and prior congestion.
• Larger swing Oct 26 high 2.645 to Nov 21 low 1.950:
  • 38.2% = ~2.215
  • 50% = ~2.297
  • 61.8% = ~2.378 We have reclaimed 38.2% and are aiming for the 50% area ~2.297–2.306 cluster. This cluster confluence strengthens the 2.30–2.33 resistance zone.

11. Support/resistance and pivots

• Supports: 2.24–2.25 (neckline and 22:00 hour low 2.241), 2.21–2.22 (intraday shelf), 2.196 (17:00 close), 2.17 (Fib 38.2), 2.10, 2.05, 2.00 psychological.
• Resistances: 2.278–2.28 (intraday), 2.30–2.306 (Fib 61.8/Kijun/50% larger swing cluster), 2.33 (daily supply), 2.40 (Fib 78.6), 2.53 (swing high objective), 2.64.
• Classic Pivots (from 11/23 H/L/C ~2.080/1.950/2.046): P ≈ 2.025; R1 ≈ 2.100; R2 ≈ 2.155; R3 ≈ 2.231. Price exceeded R3 today, a trend-day characteristic; mean reversion toward R3/neckline often follows, then a second leg higher.

12. Pattern recognition

• Double bottom with confirmed neckline break at ~2.24. Measured move targets 2.52 over multiple days.
• Intraday bull flag from 20:00–21:00 followed by a controlled retest at 22:00 and hold.
• No bearish reversal pattern printed on the daily; today resembles a trend continuation candle.

13. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• The decline into Nov 21 likely completed a wave 5 of a larger corrective structure. The bounce appears to be an ABC, with A completed intraday, B as shallow pullback into 2.24, and a developing C toward 2.30–2.33 in the next session.

14. Probabilistic pathing for next 24 hours

• Base case (≈55–60%): Buy-the-dip regime. Early pullback/retest to 2.24–2.25, then a push toward 2.30–2.33, stalling near 2.306–2.33. Expected range 2.21–2.33; VWAP likely to rise into ~2.22–2.24.
• Consolidation case (≈25–30%): Sideways between 2.21 and 2.28, coiling beneath 2.30 for a later break.
• Bearish reversal (≈10–15%): Loss of 2.21 leads to a deeper mean reversion into 2.17–2.10 before buyers reassert; invalidates immediate bullish momentum but not the broader basing unless 2.05/2.00 fails.

15. Risk management cues (for planning the trade)

• Invalidation for the long idea sits below 2.196–2.21 (break and hold), where structure would degrade and odds shift to deeper retrace.
• Reward corridor: First objective 2.306 (61.8% retrace confluence), stretch 2.33 if momentum persists. Given ATR, both are reachable; 2.306 is the higher-confidence take-profit in 24h.

16. Synthesis and decision

• Multiple tool confluence: neckline break, bullish intraday structure, RSI/MACD improvement, Ichimoku hourly uptrend, and Fibonacci/Kijun convergence near 2.30–2.31 suggest dips are buyable with a tactical target at 2.306.
• The primary trend is still down on the daily, so keep targets conservative for the 24h horizon; use pullbacks for entry rather than chasing.

Trade plan (24h):

• Decision: Buy (long).
• Optimal entry: Buy a pullback/retest near 2.244 (prior R3/neckline zone and 22:00 retest). If not filled, a momentum add-on occurs above 2.278, but the preferred entry is the dip.
• Take-profit: 2.306 (Fibonacci 61.8% from Nov 10 high to Nov 21 low and near daily Kijun confluence).
• Rationale: Favors positive skew with improving momentum and supportive structure while respecting the intermediate downtrend by using a conservative TP.