XRP: Bearish Bounce Setup — Short the 2.11 Rip, Target 1.95 Within 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Moderately bearish with a sell-the-bounce setup. Expect a lower-high near 2.10–2.13 followed by a push toward 1.96–1.95. Probability-weighted path favors a drift-down or another leg lower after a brief relief pop.
• Optimal plan: Short a rally into 2.10–2.12 (near daily R1/overhead supply). Target 1.95–1.96 (next session S1/psych level). Invalidation on sustained break above 2.16–2.20 (reclaim of 23.6% Fib and prior breakdown level).

Context and multi-timeframe read

• Daily trend: Clear downtrend since early October’s failure to hold above ~3.0 and the mid-October volatility break. Lower highs: 2.65 (Oct 26–27) → 2.53 (Nov 10) → 2.42–2.32 (mid-Nov) → 2.22 (late Nov). Lower lows: 2.29 → 2.11 → 1.95. Price is below all key moving averages (20/50/100/200-day) and below major swing retracements—structurally bearish.
• Intraday (hourly, Dec 1): Gap/slide from ~2.16 early to ~1.99 low, then a modest, overlapping bounce to ~2.03–2.05. This looks like a bear flag/weak consolidation after expansion down, with rallies sold and VWAP-pinned trade.

Key levels (confluence)

• Support: 2.00 (psych/minor), 1.96 (pivot S1 for next session), 1.95 (round number, nearby shelf), 1.90 (deeper liquidity), 1.835 (Nov 21 swing low, major).
• Resistance: 2.10–2.13 (next session R1 ≈ 2.13; supply from Nov 28–30), 2.16–2.20 (23.6% Fib and yesterday’s close area), 2.22–2.26 (late-Nov supply), 2.34–2.36 (38.2% Fib), 2.50–2.53 (50% Fib/failed rally zone), 2.60–2.68 (61.8% Fib/overhead cloud).

Moving averages (approx, daily)

• SMA20 ≈ 2.18 (estimated from last 20 closes). Price 2.03 is below SMA20 and hugging the lower Bollinger Band.
• SMA50 ≈ 2.45 (trend lower for weeks). SMA100/200 likely ≥ 2.6. Wide separation shows a mature downtrend; rallies into the 20-day are typically sold.
• EMA ribbon (10/21/34-day): All above spot and fanned bearishly; no sign of compression/bullish flip.

Momentum

• RSI(14) daily: Low-to-mid 30s to ~40 (est). Not deeply oversold after the late-Nov bounce—room for another leg lower. Hourly RSI recovered from sub-30 to low 40s on a weak bounce—classic bear-flag momentum profile.
• MACD daily: Below zero with histogram flattening but still negative. Momentum bleed is slowing, yet no bullish cross; any bounce likely corrective.
• Stochastics: Intraday slow stoch rolled up from oversold but is stalling under midline—consistent with a bounce-in-downtrend.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily: Elevated relative to early Nov (~0.16–0.20 est). Today’s range (2.16 → 1.99) equals ~0.17, matching ATR; another ATR-size move is plausible next 24h.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ~2.18; lower band ~1.98–2.00 (est). Price “walking the band” after touching the lower band—often yields a small bounce then continuation unless mid-band is reclaimed. Expect rejection beneath mid-band on first retest.

Volume and flow

• Distribution profile: Big volume clustered on down days (Oct 10 crash, early Nov selloffs, Nov 20–21 drop). OBV slope (qualitative) lower for weeks—distributive.
• Today: Down-move driven early, then lighter-volume drift up—non-aggressive buying. That favors shorting into strength.

Fibonacci structure (Sep 13 high 3.183 → Nov 21 low 1.835)

• 23.6% ≈ 2.153: Recently lost, now resistance (confluence with 2.16–2.20 band).
• 38.2% ≈ 2.350: November rallies stalled in the 2.34–2.53 region.
• 50% ≈ 2.509, 61.8% ≈ 2.669: Well above; unlikely near-term unless regime changes. Interpretation: Failure to hold 23.6% often precedes a retest of the base (1.83–1.95 zone) before any durable turn.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud likely above with bearish tilt. Lagging span under price/cloud. This is a textbook bearish state—expect rallies to stall at Tenkan/Kijun (~2.15–2.22 area).

Pattern work

• Descending triangle from mid-Nov highs against 1.95–2.00 shelf. Breakdown implications favor 1.90–1.83 if 1.95 gives way, but pattern targets extend beyond 24h scope.
• Today’s intraday structure = bear flag: Sharp impulse down, then three-wave overlapping recovery under prior breakdown levels (~2.05–2.10). Typical continuation pattern.

Pivot map and intraday framework

• Prior session (Nov 30) pivot P ≈ 2.178, S1 ≈ 2.144, R1 ≈ 2.195. Price traded below S1 most of today—a trend-day down profile.
• Provisional next session (using today’s H/L/C ≈ 2.161/1.990/2.029): P ≈ 2.060, R1 ≈ 2.130, S1 ≈ 1.959. This aligns with a short-the-pop bias: sell into R1/Supply at ~2.10–2.13; cover near S1 ~1.96.
• VWAP (today, qualitative): ~2.02–2.03. Last prints near VWAP suggest balanced close after a down push; first test higher to R1 typically attracts sellers in a downtrend.

Liquidity and market microstructure

• Obvious liquidity pools: Above 2.10/2.13 (resting shorts’ stops and breakout chasers), and below 2.00/1.96/1.95 (sell stops). Expect a small stop-run up to 2.10–2.13, then a slide to harvest sub-2.00 liquidity if bears maintain control.

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (55%): Pop to 2.10–2.13 (R1), rejection, drift to 1.96–1.95 and attempt to probe 1.93. Close near 1.96–2.00 range.
• Range case (30%): Contained 2.00–2.10 chop around VWAP ≈2.02; no decisive breakdown; fades both ends.
• Squeeze (15%): Strong reclaim >2.13 then >2.16; accelerates to 2.20–2.22 where heavier supply should cap the move. Would invalidate the immediate short setup.

Risk management (suggested)

• Entry (short): 2.108 limit (between VWAP and R1, inside supply band 2.10–2.13). If price opens weak and never bounces, consider a smaller position using a VWAP fade at ~2.03 with tighter stop.
• Invalidation/stop: 2.165–2.17 (above today’s high 2.1608 and 23.6% Fib reclaim). Alternate wider tactical stop: 2.205 (above 2.20 round/inside the 2.20–2.22 supply zone) if sizing is reduced.
• Take-profit: 1.955 primary (just above S1/round 1.95). Secondary stretch: 1.930 if momentum accelerates. Scale-outs on approach to 1.98/1.96 to lock gains.
• Reward/risk (entry 2.108, TP 1.955, stop 2.165): Reward ≈ 0.153; Risk ≈ 0.057 → R/R ≈ 2.7x. Meets tactical criteria for a 24h swing.

Why not long here?

• Price below 20/50/200 MAs, below broken 23.6% Fib, and under daily pivots. The first bounce typically fades. Longs have poor asymmetry unless 2.16–2.20 is reclaimed decisively, which would put 2.22–2.26 in play.

Bottom line

• The path of least resistance is lower. Use a patient sell-the-bounce approach into 2.10–2.13 with stops above 2.165–2.20 and a 1.95–1.96 profit target. If the market skips the bounce and breaks 1.99 directly, expect a slide into 1.96/1.95 where responsive buyers may attempt a defense.