Short the Retest: XRP Likely Fades 2.12–2.14 Toward 2.04 Over the Next 24 Hours

Executive summary (next 24h):

• Bias: Bearish-to-neutral with a grind lower. Expect a reflex bounce into 2.11–2.14 that likely fades, targeting 2.05–2.04. Tail risk of a stop-run to ~2.00 if 2.04 gives way; upside squeeze risk capped near 2.16–2.18.
• Plan: Sell the bounce into broken support turned resistance (optimal 2.125–2.14 zone). Take profit near S3/pivot confluence around 2.04. Use a tight, defined risk above 2.168–2.18.

Step-by-step, multi-technique analysis:

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Lower highs and lower lows since September peak (~3.13). Two major markdown legs (10 Oct, mid-Nov) followed by a weak corrective bounce that topped ~2.22–2.28 (late Nov). Current close ~2.098 is below the recent lower high (2.22), preserving the primary downtrend.
• 4H/1H structure: Intraday sequence of lower highs since 03 Dec 22:00 (2.204 → 2.195 → 2.187 → 2.176 → 2.173 → 2.159 → 2.151 → 2.146 → 2.130 → 2.120 → 2.150 LH swing, then breakdown to 2.128 → 2.104 → 2.099). The 18:00–19:00 bars showed heavy sell pressure with volume spikes and fresh session lows; subsequent candles are stabilizing but below prior support (bearish acceptance below 2.11–2.12).
• Takeaway: Dominant trend down; short-term bounces likely get sold.

2. Moving averages (EMA/SMA)

• Daily 20D SMA (approx): ~2.13 (quick calculation from the last 20 closes). Price 2.098 is now below it; mean reverted and then rejected.
• Daily 50D SMA (approx): ~2.45–2.55 (weighted by Oct prices), well above. Bearish long-term slope.
• Daily 9/21 EMA (approx): 9 EMA ~2.16–2.17; 21 EMA ~2.13. Price < 9 EMA and < 21 EMA; 9 EMA < 21 EMA or curling down → bearish alignment.
• 1H 20 EMA/VWAP proxy: Price sits under intraday moving averages; rallies to moving average bands are getting faded.
• Implication: Favors sell-the-rip setups into MA resistance bands.

3. Momentum oscillators (RSI, Stochastic)

• Daily RSI (est.): mid-40s and rolling over after a weak bounce → momentum below neutral, no oversold exhaustion on daily.
• 1H RSI: ~32–38 region post selloff; can relieve with a short bounce to 2.11–2.14 but still below 50 midline → momentum remains bearish while below 50.
• Stoch (1H): Oversold cluster that can lift to neutral on a bounce; trended oversold readings in downtrends often precede continuation lower.
• Read: Expect a modest momentum reset bounce that provides a better short entry.

4. MACD

• Daily MACD: Bearish cross/negative histogram after failing at ~2.22; expansion phase likely resuming to the downside.
• 1H MACD: Below zero line; potential for a shallow bullish cross on a bounce but likely to roll back under as trend reasserts.
• Read: Supports fade-the-bounce.

5. Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

• Daily: Mid-band near ~2.13; lower band estimated ~1.93–1.97. Price below mid-band but not near lower band → room lower; mean reversion toward mid-band failed.
• 1H: Riding lower band earlier; now attempting a marginal mean reversion. Expect rejection near the middle to upper band (2.12–2.14) given trend.
• Read: Use upper 1H band tests as short triggers.

6. Ichimoku (daily & 1H, qualitative)

• Daily: Price below Tenkan (~2.16) and Kijun (~2.20). Cloud overhead (Span A < Span B) → bearish. Lagging span likely beneath price/cloud.
• 1H: Beneath Tenkan/Kijun with cloud above ~2.14–2.18 → rallies into the cloud likely fail.
• Read: Bearish alignment; resistance thickens 2.14–2.18.

7. Fibonacci retracements (swing analysis)

• From Nov swing low ~1.95 (Nov 21–22) to Nov 24 high ~2.278:
  • 50%: 2.114; 61.8%: 2.076. Price 2.098 sits between these—key decision zone.
  • A sustained break below 2.076 opens 2.03–2.00.
• From recent swing high ~2.217 (Dec 3) to today’s low ~2.093:
  • 38.2%–61.8% bounce window ~2.14–2.17 aligns with supply; optimal fade zone.
• Read: Confluence favors shorting 2.12–2.15 with targets into 2.05–2.04.

8. Classical pivots (calculated from 2025-12-03 H/L/C ≈ 2.217/2.144/2.202)

• Pivot P ≈ 2.1876; S1 ≈ 2.1579; S2 ≈ 2.1140; S3 ≈ 2.0404; R1 ≈ 2.2315.
• Price action: Broke S1 and S2; sitting just under S2. Typical behavior: retest of broken S2 (now resistance) before probing S3.
• Read: Textbook short the retest; S3 ≈ 2.04 lines up with profit target.

9. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Daily: Down days saw heavier volume than up days (Oct and mid-Nov legs), implying distribution on bounces.
• Intraday today: Heaviest volumes on the sell impulsive move 18:00–19:00; subsequent stabilization on lighter volume → no strong dip-buying footprint.
• Read: Supply dominant; OBV proxy would be flat-to-down.

10. VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Session VWAP (intraday) likely ~2.15–2.16 given morning prints; price below VWAP all day. Broken VWAP retests frequently reject in downtrends.
• Anchored VWAP from the Nov 21–22 capitulation likely sits ~2.14–2.15 after the late-Nov rally; current price below it → underperforming holders.
• Read: Favors selling retests of 2.12–2.15.

11. Candlesticks and intraday tape

• Series of lower-close 1H candles culminating in a wide-range red bar 18:00–19:00. Followed by small-bodied candles/doji near session lows (weak basing). 22:00–22:32 print sits at 2.098, a marginal uptick but no reversal pattern confirmed.
• Read: Incomplete bottom; bounce attempts likely corrective.

12. Wyckoff lens

• Late-Nov looks like a distributional upthrust and failed test (~2.22–2.28). The break back into the prior range triggered markdown continuation. Current phase: markdown with minor pauses; potential for a last point of supply on rallies to 2.12–2.15.

13. Elliott wave (light touch)

• The Nov 21–24 impulse up appears as an A wave; late-Nov to early-Dec chop as B; today’s rollover could be the start of C down toward 2.04–2.00 to complete the corrective structure before a larger counter-trend bounce.

14. ATR and expected range

• Daily ATR (est.) ≈ 0.09–0.12 over the past weeks. From 2.10, a one-ATR south move tags ~2.00–2.02; an ATR north move tags ~2.20–2.22 (less likely given overhead supply).
• 24h expected range: 2.03–2.16 with a bearish tilt; tails 2.00/2.18 possible on stop sweeps.

15. Regression channel and mean reversion

• Short-term linear regression (1H, last ~24–36 bars) slopes down; price below the midline with upper channel ~2.13–2.15. Optimal shorts occur on tags of the upper channel.

16. Divergences

• Daily: Lower high in price (2.22 vs 2.278) likely accompanied by a lower high in RSI → bearish divergence confirmation at the turn.
• 1H: Minor bullish divergence attempts near 2.10 are weak and insufficient to break structure.

17. Confluence map (levels that matter)

• Resistance: 2.12–2.15 (broken S2, Fib 38.2–50%, 1H MA band, intraday VWAP zone), then 2.16–2.18 (S1 retest/upper Bollinger/Ichimoku cloud edge).
• Support: 2.076 (61.8% retrace), 2.05–2.04 (S3 pivot confluence), then psychological 2.00 and prior capitulation shelf 1.95.

18. Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (55–60%): Bounce to 2.12–2.14, rejection, bleed to 2.05–2.04, partial rebound to ~2.08–2.10 by period end.
• Bear extension (25–30%): Quick flush through 2.076 to 2.03–2.00, then responsive buying stabilizes ~2.05–2.08.
• Upside squeeze (15–20%): Stronger mean reversion lifts to 2.16–2.18 (stop run above intraday LHs) before sellers reappear; daily downtrend intact unless >2.20–2.22 reclaimed on volume.

19. Trade construction and risk management

• Entry (short): Prefer patient limit sell 2.125 (in the 2.12–2.14 supply pocket) for favorable R:R and higher fill probability than 2.15+.
• Target: 2.043 (near pivot S3 2.040; front-run by ~0.3 cents to increase fill odds).
• Suggested protective stop (not part of requested output): 2.168–2.180 (above 1H supply and S1 retest). R:R from 2.125 → 2.043 vs stop 2.168 ≈ 1:1.95 to 1:2.5 depending on stop placement.
• Alternative execution: If bounce fails to materialize, a momentum add-on below 2.076 targets 2.03–2.00, but primary plan remains selling a weak retest.

Synthesis and verdict

• With daily trend down, intraday momentum weak, key support (2.114) broken and now likely to act as resistance, and multi-tool confluence pointing to 2.05–2.04, the higher-probability, higher-quality trade over the next 24 hours is to Sell a bounce into 2.12–2.14 and aim for 2.04.

Price path forecast (24h):

• Opening region ~2.10 → relief bounce 2.12–2.14 → fade → 2.07 → 2.05–2.04 probe → stabilize 2.06–2.10 into the close.