XRP’s Up‑Thrust at 2.17: Sell the Retest, Aim for the Range Floor

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish-to-range. A failed intraday breakout at 2.17 (above classic R2 and 23.6% Fib) was sold into with heavy volume; price closed back under intraday VWAP and the 20‑day SMA. Odds favor a fade/retest of 2.07–2.05 support before any renewed attempt higher.
• Decision: Sell on strength (sell the retest) rather than chase weakness; optimal is a limit short near 2.14 with a take‑profit near 2.05. Invalidation if sustained acceptance above 2.17–2.20.

Step-by-step technical dissection

1. Market regime, trend and structure

• Higher time frame trend (since mid‑September): Broad downtrend from ~3.13 to the 11/21 low at ~1.95, followed by a basing/range phase. The larger 50‑day trend is still down; the last 3–4 weeks show a sideways to slightly upward drift inside 2.03–2.22.
• Recent swing structure: Lows clustered at 2.03–2.05 (12/1–12/7) and highs contained below 2.20–2.22 (11/29–12/3). Today’s push to 2.17 failed, reinforcing the ceiling beneath 2.20–2.22.
• Support/Resistance map: • S3: 1.99–2.00 (recent pivot band) • S2: 2.03–2.05 (multi‑touch range floor) • S1: 2.09–2.10 (Tenkan/Mid-BB neighborhood) • R1: 2.14–2.17 (Fib 23.6% and today’s failed breakout) • R2: 2.20–2.22 (December range cap) • R3: 2.26–2.28 (11/24 supply)

2. Moving averages and mean‑reversion gauges

• 5‑day SMA ≈ 2.058; 10‑day SMA ≈ 2.093; 20‑day SMA ≈ 2.106. Price = 2.101 is above the 10‑SMA but fractionally below the 20‑SMA. The short MA stack (5 < 10 < 20) is not yet bullish; it’s neutral to slightly bearish. Expect mean‑reversion pulls around the 20‑SMA (2.106) with whips around the 10‑SMA (2.093).
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 2.106; estimated stdev suggests bands near ~1.98–2.29. Price is near the mid‑band after rejecting the upper mid‑zone; neutral posture, with room lower toward 2.05 without breaking structure.
• Keltner Channel (EMA20 ± 2×ATR): Center ≈ 2.106, envelope roughly 1.90–2.31 (ATR ≈ 0.10–0.11). Price sits comfortably inside — no active squeeze; range trading conditions prevail.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 41. Slightly weak, not oversold; consistent with a range that tilts lower short term.
• Stochastic (14): Using recent high/low window, %K ≈ 39. Recovering from lows but below midline; supports a fade on rallies.
• MACD (12,26,9): Around the zero line, curling but not convincingly positive; histogram strength faded after the intraday rejection. This supports a near‑term pullback before any new bullish impulse.
• CCI(20) qualitative read: Likely rotating around zero; no trend confirmation.

4. Ichimoku Cloud (daily, approximated)

• Tenkan ≈ 2.103; Kijun ≈ 2.057; Span A (fwd) ≈ 2.080; Span B (fwd) still high ≈ 2.49. Tenkan > Kijun (mild bullish cross), but the cloud ahead remains bearish (Span B above Span A), and price is sitting right on Tenkan, slightly below the 20‑SMA. Chikou is below price 26 sessions ago (~2.33) — a mixed to mildly bearish setup. Loss of Tenkan typically invites a test of Kijun (~2.06).

5. Volatility and risk bands

• ATR(14) ≈ 0.10–0.11. A full ATR swing easily carries price from 2.14 down to ~2.04–2.05, aligning with the suggested target. Downside excursions much beyond 1 ATR would target the 1.99–2.00 pivot.

6. Fibonacci and confluence levels

• Major swing: 9/12 high ~3.129 to 11/21 low ~1.835 => 23.6% retrace ≈ 2.140; 38.2% ≈ 2.329; 50% ≈ 2.482.
• Today’s high at ~2.174 briefly reclaimed the 23.6% (2.14) but failed and closed back below — a classic rejection at a shallow retracement level. This is bearish until 2.17–2.20 is accepted on a closing basis.

7. Intraday price action, volume and VWAP

• Hourly: A strong 15:00–16:00 UTC ramp (to ~2.17) printed peak volume, followed by immediate supply and a fade back through 2.15–2.14 into 2.10. That sequence often characterizes a Wyckoff up‑thrust (UT) or failed breakout.
• Session VWAP (approx) sits above current price near the 2.14–2.15 area. Trading below a falling day VWAP post‑spike favors selling rips rather than buying dips over the next session.

8. Market profile / pivot math

• Classic pivots using 12/8 H/L/C (2.116/2.037/2.0731): P ≈ 2.075; R1 ≈ 2.114; R2 ≈ 2.154; S1 ≈ 2.035; S2 ≈ 1.996. Today’s move tagged beyond R2 then reversed — statistically this increases mean‑reversion odds back toward P (2.075) or even S1 (2.035) within 1–2 sessions.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Range with upper supply shelf (2.17–2.22) and a firm floor (2.03–2.05). The failed breakout into the upper shelf suggests short‑term distribution. Until a daily close above ~2.20–2.22, the path of least resistance inside the range is sideways to slightly down.

10. Wyckoff/Order‑flow lens

• The combination of a high‑volume push into resistance followed by immediate rejection, plus price sinking below VWAP, is consistent with an up‑thrust action and short‑term dominance of supply. Expect price to probe demand around 2.09 → 2.07 → 2.05.

11. Regression/ADX context

• A 30‑session linear regression slope remains mildly negative; ADX is likely low-to-moderate, reflecting a non‑trending market. In such environments, fading extremes near edges beats breakout chasing.

12. Scenario planning (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Retest 2.13–2.15 (prior intraday support turned resistance/VWAP zone), then fade toward 2.07–2.05. One full ATR lower move is feasible within 24h.
• Bear extension (20%): Momentum accelerates through 2.05, magnet to 1.99–2.00 before responsive buying returns.
• Bull surprise (25%): Acceptance above 2.17; quick squeeze to 2.20–2.22. Only a strong close above ~2.22 flips the 1–3 day bias decisively higher toward 2.26–2.28.

13. Trade construction and risk framing

• Strategy: Sell the retest of resistance (mean‑reversion short) where multiple tools align: Fib 23.6% (~2.14), pivot R1/R2 cluster, intraday VWAP, and prior supply. Target the range mid/low (2.05 area), in line with ATR.
• Entry: 2.14 (limit). Take‑profit: 2.05. Implied move ≈ 0.09 (~0.85× ATR), realistic in 24h. Invalidation for thesis if sustained trading > 2.17–2.20 with rising volume and an hourly close above 2.17.

Outlook conclusion

• Mixed higher‑timeframe signals but the immediate order‑flow and failed breakout skew risk toward a controlled fade. Best‑odds setup is a tactical short on a bounce into 2.14, harvesting the trip back to 2.05. If 2.17–2.20 is reclaimed with authority, stand down — that would likely target 2.20–2.22 next.