XRP teeters at $2.00: breakdown retest favors a short into the $1.95 liquidity pocket

XRP multi-timeframe technical read — comprehensive breakdown with next-24h path and trade levels

1. Snapshot and market context

• Instrument: XRP/USD
• Current price: 2.0093
• Regime: Established downtrend since mid‑September (3.12 → ~2.00), punctuated by an Oct 10 capitulation and subsequent sequence of lower highs/lows. Recent two-week bounce to 2.108 (Dec 9) failed; price is now back pressing the 2.00 handle.
• Intraday behavior (last 24h): Clear breakdown candle on the 15:00 hour to 1.9881 on elevated volume, weak reactive bounce to ~2.015, then tight consolidation around 2.00–2.01. Market is accepting below prior support at ~2.03.

2. Market structure and trend (price action)

• Daily structure: Lower highs from late Oct (2.69 → 2.64 → 2.634 → 2.606 → 2.552 → 2.509 → 2.529 → 2.526 → 2.392 lower rallies); lower lows culminating in 1.95 on Nov 21. The Dec 1–9 rising channel (2.03 → 2.108) has broken down, converting 2.03–2.04 into resistance.
• Intraday (1h) structure: Break below 2.03 neckline with a wide‑range bearish marubozu at 15:00 and follow‑through. Subsequent bounces have been sold below 2.02–2.03. Clear bear control.
• Key levels:
  • Supports: 2.00/1.998 (round number/pivot S1), 1.980 (today’s intraday low), 1.95 (Nov 21 swing low; H&S target confluence), 1.90 (round, historical minor).
  • Resistances: 2.03–2.04 (broken support/neckline), 2.055–2.06 (61.8% of the latest downswing and 1h MAs cluster), 2.11 (Dec 9 high), 2.155, 2.20–2.225 zone.
• Pattern context:
  • Bear flag (Dec 1–9) has broken to the downside.
  • Micro head‑and‑shoulders on the 1h: head ~2.108, shoulders ~2.07/2.04, neckline ~2.03–2.04; measured move ≈ 0.078 → target ~1.95.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily SMA20 ≈ 2.115 (approx; computed from last 20 closes). Price at 2.01 trades below SMA20.
• SMA50 estimated > 2.35–2.45 (given Oct/Nov prints). Price well below SMA50.
• SMA200 likely > 2.70. Strongly below.
• Conclusion: Price below 20/50/200 MAs; slopes are down/flat‑down → bearish trend intact.
• Intraday EMAs (1h): Post‑break, 8/21/55 EMAs have bear‑stacked (8 < 21 < 55) and are sloping down; typical rejection area now sits near 2.03–2.05.

4. Momentum indicators

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 38 (computed from last 14 closes). Interprets as bearish momentum but not yet deeply oversold; room exists for further downside before mean‑reversion forces intensify.
• 1h RSI: Dipped into low‑30s on the breakdown and has recovered marginally to high‑30s/low‑40s; minor positive divergence is tentative but unconfirmed given weak follow‑through.
• MACD (daily): Below signal and below zero; histogram negative and expanding post Dec 10–12 weakness → trend momentum to the downside.
• Stochastic (daily): Hovering near/under 20; can remain pinned in trends — not a standalone buy signal.
• ADX (daily): Rising from sub‑20 toward/above 20 suggests trend strength is building again after the failed upswing.

5. Volatility and bands

• Daily ATR(14) estimate ≈ 0.12 (recent true ranges between ~0.07–0.20). Implies typical 24h envelope roughly ±0.12 from reference points.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ SMA20 ~2.115; lower band estimated ~1.95–1.96. Price riding the lower band since the breakdown — signals trend continuation with occasional mean‑reversion pops toward 2.03–2.06.
• Keltner Channels (20,2xATR) on daily: Price pushing/breaching lower channel, consistent with trend acceleration.

6. Volume, OBV, VWAP, profile

• Volume: The key 15:00 hourly breakdown printed materially higher volume than surrounding hours, confirming supply dominance through the 2.03 shelf. Subsequent hours showed lower demand imbalance — weak dip buying.
• OBV: Would reflect a persistent downtrend from Oct with no material bullish inflection; confirms distribution regime.
• Intraday VWAP: Post‑selloff, VWAP likely sits above spot around 2.02–2.03; price trading below VWAP = overhead supply.
• Profile read (recent sessions): Value has been migrating lower from the 2.03–2.05 area; POC proximity shifted down. Acceptance below 2.01 suggests tests of 1.98 and possibly 1.95.

7. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price < Tenkan < Kijun and below the Kumo.
• Tenkan (9‑period mid) ≈ (recent 9H+9L)/2 ~ (2.174 + 1.986)/2 ≈ 2.08.
• Kijun (26‑period mid) ≈ (2.577 + 1.95)/2 ≈ 2.26.
• Chikou span below price and cloud. Full bearish stack; rallies to Tenkan (~2.08) should face supply.

8. Fibonacci and confluences

• Latest swing (Dec 9 high 2.108 → Dec 12 low 1.980):
  • 38.2% = 2.028; 50% = 2.044; 61.8% = 2.059.
  • Ideal short‑the‑rip zone: 2.03–2.06 (confluence of Fib 38.2–61.8%, broken support, intraday MAs, VWAP).
• Larger swing (Sep high ~3.137 → Nov low 1.95): Most retracements failed beneath 50% (2.543), reinforcing macro‑bear regime.

9. Pivots (using Dec 11 H/L/C ≈ 2.053/1.987/2.036)

• Pivot P ≈ 2.025
• R1 ≈ 2.063, R2 ≈ 2.091
• S1 ≈ 1.997, S2 ≈ 1.959
• Today: Tag of S1 and stabilization near 2.00; if a rebound occurs, 2.06 (R1/61.8%/supply) is the cap zone; on the downside, S2 ~1.959 aligns with the H&S target cluster.

10. Pattern/Channel diagnostics

• Descending channel since late Oct remains intact; current price sits near lower half of the channel, with room to probe 1.95 without violating structure.
• The micro H&S breakdown projection clusters with pivot S2 and the lower Bollinger band — high‑quality target confluence around 1.95–1.96.

11. Probability path for the next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): A corrective bounce toward 2.03–2.05 fades, followed by continuation lower toward 1.96–1.95. This respects Fib retrace and pivot/R1 ceilings.
• Bear extension (25%): Weak/no bounce; direct drift to 1.98 then 1.95 amid weekend liquidity, potentially wicking 1.93–1.94 before rebounding to ~1.98.
• Bull surprise (15%): Stronger short‑covering squeezes through 2.06 into 2.08–2.11; would require reclaiming 1h VWAP and turning 2.05 into support. Low odds given current momentum/structure.

12. Trade plan synthesis (short bias)

• Strategic idea: Sell the retest of broken support/supply with downside follow‑through to the H&S/Bollinger/pivot confluence.
• Optimal entry (sell limit): 2.032 (first meaningful supply in the 2.03–2.06 zone; improves fill probability vs waiting at 2.06).
• Take profit: 1.955 (near pivot S2 and measured‑move target; captures expected 24h range while front‑running the 1.95 liquidity).
• Optional (not required by prompt): Invalidation/stop above 2.067–2.08 (above R1 and 61.8% retrace) to protect against a squeeze. Risk: ~0.035–0.048 for reward ~0.077 → R:R ≈ 1.6–2.2 depending on stop placement.
• Timing: Expect the bounce window during early Asia/Europe sessions; if price fails to lift to 2.03, momentum shorts can be considered on a weak retest of 2.01–2.02 with tighter targets.

13. Why not a long?

• Trend, MA stack, Ichimoku, MACD, OBV, and structure all favor selling rallies. While RSI is sub‑40 and could fuel a small pop, the weight of evidence points to rallies being opportunities to short until 2.06–2.08 is decisively reclaimed on closing basis.

Conclusion: Bias is bearish over the next 24 hours. Plan to sell a bounce into 2.032 with a take‑profit at 1.955, aligning with multiple technical confluences and the expected ATR‑bounded move.