XRP Teeters on the Edge: Bear Flag Breakdown Points to a Sub-$1.80 Liquidity Sweep

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Bearish continuation with a high probability of a sub-1.80 liquidity sweep, followed by stabilization in the 1.74–1.78 zone.
• Rationale: Multi-timeframe downtrend, persistent failure at intraday moving averages and VWAP, accelerating downside momentum on 1h with volume expansion on sell candles, price riding lower Bollinger band, and an intact sequence of lower highs/lows. Key supports at 1.805 and 1.80 look vulnerable; Fibonacci extension cluster projects 1.75–1.78 as the next magnet.
• Trade plan: Short on a bounce to ~1.845 (prior micro-supply and near hourly MAs), targeting 1.742 (1h 1.618 extension confluence). Invalidation above 1.898–1.905.

Data context and regime check

• Timeframe coverage: Daily OHLCV from 2025-09-20 through 2025-12-18; intraday hourly prints for 2025-12-17–18.
• Current price: 1.8214. Intraday action today saw a lower high at ~1.93 around 13:00 UTC and a swift selloff to ~1.805 with only a weak bounce to ~1.82 into the last hour.
• Regime: Post-October breakdown from the 2.8–3.1 range to the mid-2s and then a prolonged distribution downtrend into the high-1s/low-2s. Current structure remains bearish with rallies sold.

Multi-timeframe trend analysis

1. Daily trend

• Structure: Lower highs since early Oct (~3.09 on 10/03) → mid-Oct collapse (~2.36 on 10/10) → labored rebounds capped sub-2.65 → subsequent lower highs around 2.53 (10/31), 2.33 (11/13), ~2.22 (12/03), then a slide to 1.86–1.98 in mid-Dec.
• 20/50/200 SMAs (approximated):
  • SMA20 ≈ 2.00–2.05 and sloping down.
  • SMA50 ≈ 2.30–2.40 and sloping down.
  • SMA200 well above (given prior months at ~3); strong bearish separation. Price is below all three: bearish trend confirmation.
• EMA9/EMA21 (approx): EMA9 ≈ 1.95, EMA21 ≈ 2.05. Price < EMA9 < EMA21 → bearish momentum alignment.
• Market structure: Lower high/lower low sequence intact since 12/03. Daily closes progressively lower from 2.20 area down to 1.86–1.98, now 1.82.

2. 4h/1h trend (using provided hourly tape)

• 1h structure: Lower high at 1.919–1.93 (13:00–15:00) → failure to hold 1.90s → accelerated selloff 17:00 and 19:00 with volume spikes → marginal new low near 1.805, weak end-of-session bounce to 1.82.
• MAs (1h, approximated): Price below 20/50 EMA and 100 SMA; intraday rallies reject near EMA20/EMA50 ribbon (1.85–1.88). Ribbon is fanned lower, indicating trend strength.
• Conclusion: Strong bearish intraday control; sellers defending every push.

Momentum indicators

• Daily RSI(14) (approx): Mid-30s to high-30s. Not deeply oversold, leaving room to extend lower before mean-reverting.
• 1h RSI(14): Hovering around 30–35 after failing to sustain above 50 on the mid-day bounce; bear range RSI characteristics (20–60). No convincing bullish divergence from the 1.805 low (momentum lows align with price lows), so no strong reversal signal.
• MACD (daily): Below zero, histogram expanding negatively post the 12/03 failure → bearish impulse in progress.
• MACD (1h): Bearish cross occurred pre-17:00 selloff; histogram expanding down into close → continued short-term pressure likely.
• Stochastics (1h): Oscillating near lower band; in trends this stays pinned—pullbacks tend to be sell opportunities.

Volatility & Bands

• Daily ATR(14) (approx): ~0.09–0.11. Current move from 1.93 to 1.80 intraday consumes roughly 1.2–1.4x a daily ATR when combined with earlier day’s range → momentum day characteristics.
• Bollinger Bands (1h, 20, 2): Price hugged the lower band from 17:00 onward with expanding band width → trend move rather than a simple oversold tag. Lower band slope is down; mean reversion attempts likely cap near mid-band (≈1.845–1.86) before another leg lower.
• Keltner Channels: Price below lower KC; in trend phases this signals continuation until a clean mean reversion to the middle line (near 1.85–1.86) occurs and holds—currently not achieved.

Volume, OBV, and flow

• Volume expansion on down candles at 17:00 and 19:00 suggests initiative selling. The 13:00–15:00 pop to ~1.92–1.93 carried volume but failed to break higher, implying distribution into strength.
• OBV (conceptual): Rolling over on both daily and intraday, confirming distribution and validating the downtrend.
• Money Flow (MFI) bias: Likely in bearish territory (<50) given persistent sell-pressure and lack of strong accumulation bars near lows.

VWAP and intraday positioning

• Session VWAP (anchored to 00:00 UTC): Price traded above VWAP during the 09:00–13:00 advance, then flipped below and stayed below through the close, with bounces failing to reclaim. This is classic trend-day behavior; VWAP acts as dynamic resistance tomorrow near ~1.85–1.87.

Market structure, support/resistance

• Immediate resistance: 1.845–1.87 (hourly EMA cluster + prior intraday shelf), 1.90–1.93 (failed breakout zone), 2.00 (round number and 38.2% fib of the 12/03→12/17 swing).
• Immediate support: 1.805 (intraday low), 1.80 (psychological), 1.78 (local shelf), 1.75–1.76 (measured move/Fibonacci extension cluster), then 1.72.
• Liquidity considerations: Clear resting liquidity likely below 1.80 round; sweeps through 1.80 often accelerate to the next pool (1.76–1.74).

Fibonacci mapping

• Recent swing: 12/03 high ~2.217 → 12/17 low ~1.862. Retracement levels: 38.2% ≈ 1.998, 50% ≈ 2.040, 61.8% ≈ 2.082. All failed to be tested on recent bounces, underscoring weakness.
• 1h impulse leg: 13:00 high 1.915 → 19:00 low 1.805; minor retrace to ~1.817–1.82. Extensions from the failed retest:
  • 1.272 ≈ 1.778
  • 1.414 ≈ 1.762
  • 1.618 ≈ 1.742 These align with high-probability magnets if 1.80 breaks decisively.

Ichimoku (1h and daily, conceptual)

• 1h: Price below Tenkan and Kijun, bearish TK cross, below a downward-sloping cloud → bearish. Any pop to Kijun (~1.85–1.87) likely meets supply.
• Daily: Price below cloud, Chikou under price, bearish stack. No edge for bulls until at least a daily close above the Tenkan (~1.95) and ideally Kijun (~2.05).

Pattern recognition

• Bear flag/descending channel on 1h: Morning grind up to ~1.92 failed, followed by an impulsive break. Afternoon consolidation under 1.87 was a bear flag that broke at 17:00 with volume. Textbook continuation suggests another measured leg of roughly 0.10–0.12, projecting 1.75–1.77.
• Candles: Long upper wicks near 1.90–1.93 (supply), shallow-lower-wick closes into the lows—sign of persistent seller control.

ATR-based levels and risk framing

• With ATR(14) daily ≈ 0.10, a 24h move from 1.82 to 1.74 is within 0.8 ATR beyond the intraday low, plausible if momentum persists.
• Hourly ATR ≈ 0.015–0.020; two to three hourly ATRs below 1.80 lands near 1.76–1.77, consistent with fibs and measured moves.

Confluence summary (bearish)

• Below all key MAs and VWAP on 1h and daily.
• MACD/RSI momentum bearish without strong bullish divergence.
• Volume expands on down legs; bounces are on lighter participation.
• Pattern and Fibonacci extensions call for 1.75–1.78.
• Psychological level at 1.80 likely to break on a stop run.

24-hour path prediction

• Base case (65%): Early bounce to 1.84–1.86 (toward 1h mid-BB/EMA20/VWAP), rejection, break of 1.80, extension to 1.76–1.74. Late session stabilization ~1.77–1.79.
• Alternate (25%): Stronger squeeze to 1.89–1.92 (fills single prints), but sellers defend sub-1.93 and push back to 1.80–1.82 by end of window.
• Low-probability bull case (10%): Reclaim and hold above 1.93, flipping 1.90s into support; would target 1.98–2.02. This requires a clear catalyst and is currently unconfirmed.

Trade plan and execution

• Direction: Short (Sell).
• Entry: 1.845 limit on a reactive bounce into the 1h EMA/VWAP resistance pocket (1.845–1.865). This seeks better RR than chasing breakdowns.
• Target (TP): 1.742 (1.618 fib extension and confluence with measured move cluster). Consider scaling partial at 1.777 (1.272 extension) if actively managing.
• Invalidation (Stop, suggested): 1.898–1.905 above the 1.90 micro-structure and afternoon supply; a sustained reclaim there would signal a regime shift on 1h.
• Risk/Reward (to TP): Entry 1.845, stop 1.900 (≈0.055 risk), TP 1.742 (≈0.103 reward) → ~1.9R. Even to 1.777 gives ~1.68R.

What flips the bias

• A firm 1h close above 1.90 followed by a higher low above 1.87, and then a push through 1.93 with volume (and VWAP reclaim) would neutralize the short and open 1.98–2.02.

Bottom line

• The preponderance of evidence (trend, momentum, volume, structure, and fib targets) favors a Sell-the-bounce approach. Expect a sub-1.80 sweep with real risk of extension into mid-1.70s before any material mean reversion.