XRP coiling at support: fading the 1.88–1.89 pop for a break toward 1.81

Executive summary and current context

• Instrument: XRP (USD)
• Current price: 1.8598
• Lookback provided: Daily OHLCV from 2025-09-27 to 2025-12-25, plus intraday hours for 2025-12-24 to 2025-12-25
• Regime: Medium-term downtrend from early Oct high (3.099 on 10/02) to mid/late Dec low (1.7727 on 12/19). Recent days show a tight volatility contraction in the 1.86–1.93 band near multi-week support, with lower highs intact.
• 24h view: Bias modestly bearish; expect range 1.83–1.90 with risk of a downside extension to 1.80–1.82 if 1.85 gives way. Best tactical expression: fade pops to 1.88–1.89 (sell the rip) with stop above 1.93, target 1.81–1.82.

1. Multi-timeframe trend analysis

• Higher timeframe (daily): A clear sequence of lower highs since 12/09 (2.174), 12/10 (2.043), 12/14 (1.979), 12/20 (1.954), 12/21 (1.947), 12/22 (1.944), 12/24–25 (~1.873–1.885 intraday). Price has compressed near the lower third of the 3-month range. Structure is consistent with a bearish continuation after a corrective bounce in late Nov/early Dec stalled below the 38.2% Fib of the 10/02→12/19 decline.
• Intermediate trend confirmation: Price below the 20D and 50D moving averages (see MAs below), with the 20D < 50D slope negative – a classic bearish structure.
• Short timeframe (hourly, last 24–36h): Micro lower-highs within a narrow range. A brief upthrust to 1.885 (15:00) was sold, and price returned to 1.86–1.87. Hourly consolidation looks like a bear flag / descending triangle under 1.875–1.885 supply.

2. Key horizontal levels (derived from swing points, closes, and volume density)

• Resistance: 1.885 (today’s intraday high/supply), 1.90–1.93 (cluster, includes 12/21–12/22 highs), 1.98–2.03 (late 12/03–12/11 congestion and 20D MA region), 2.16–2.22 (former support/now resistance from late Nov), 2.28 (Fib 38.2% of the 3.099→1.7727 leg), 2.44–2.46 (Fib 50%).
• Support: 1.86 (current shelf), 1.84–1.85 (intraday shelf), 1.807–1.812 (12/18 close 1.8078 area and front-run zone), 1.7727 (12/19 swing low), 1.73–1.75 (projected measured move if triangle breaks).

3. Moving averages (daily)

• 20D SMA (approx): ~1.955 (computed from last 20 closes). Price 1.8598 is below 20D SMA – short-term bearish.
• 50D SMA (qualitative): Likely ~2.2–2.3 given Oct/Nov closes; price well below – medium-term bearish.
• MA structure: 20D < 50D and both sloping down, indicating persistent downtrend pressure. Any rebounds into 1.95–2.05 likely fade zones unless momentum regime changes.

4. Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily, qualitative est.): ~40–45; sub-50 readings in downtrends indicate bearish momentum with room to overshoot lower band if support cracks. No confirmed bullish divergence at daily scale; recent lows improved from 1.7727 to ~1.84, but highs are descending – mixed to bearish.
• RSI (hourly): Centered near 45–50 during the recent chop; no sustained momentum thrust above 60; favors range fade and/or downside continuation.
• Stochastics (daily, qualitative): Hovering mid-zone after bouncing from oversold around 12/19; no decisive cross up through strong resistance – momentum recovery stalled.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Below zero line; histogram contraction indicates momentum cooling but still negative. Without a bullish cross and base-building above the 20D MA, edge remains with sellers on pops.

5. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ~1.955; lower band estimated ~1.77–1.80 given recent realized vol. Current price sits closer to the lower band, which is typical in downtrends. Bandwidth has narrowed versus November – late-stage volatility compression often precedes expansion; with prevailing trend down, the expansion risk skews lower unless a catalyst flips momentum.
• Hourly bands: Evident squeeze the last 24h; the failed push to 1.885 followed by a fade to 1.86 suggests sellers defending upper band; odds of a downside band ride increase if 1.859–1.864 breaks with volume.

6. Ichimoku Cloud (daily, approximations)

• Tenkan (9): Midpoint of the last 9 highs/lows ≈ (1.9837 high, 1.7727 low) → ~1.878. Price 1.859 < Tenkan – near-term bearish.
• Kijun (26): Midpoint of last 26 highs/lows roughly ~2.02. Price < Kijun – bearish medium-term bias.
• Cloud (Senkou Span A/B): Projected cloud likely above price and thick due to the prior selloff – downside momentum remains dominant. No bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross or price–cloud break.

7. Fibonacci mapping (swing 10/02 high 3.099 → 12/19 low 1.7727)

• 38.2%: ~2.279; 50%: ~2.436; 61.8%: ~2.592.
• Late Nov/early Dec rally failed beneath 38.2% (topped near 2.20–2.21 and 2.174 on 12/09), confirming a weak corrective bounce. Price now well below 38.2% – bears in control unless reclaimed.
• Near-term internal Fib (12/19 low 1.7727 → 12/20–21 bounce 1.947): 61.8% retrace aligns near 1.85–1.86 region, consistent with today’s support shelf; a decisive break below suggests completion of a corrective A–B–C and opens the door to retest 1.81/1.77.

8. Chart patterns and structure

• Daily: Descending triangle forming with a relatively flat base near 1.86 and descending highs 1.95→1.93→1.885. Measured move potential: height (~1.93–1.86 = 0.07) implies a break target near 1.79–1.80 if 1.86 fails. Confluence with lower Bollinger band and December pivot lows enhances target credibility.
• Hourly: Bear flag under 1.875–1.885 after a weak bounce. The 15:00 spike to 1.885 was rejected on above-average intraday volume, marking a supply pivot for tactical shorts.
• Candlestick context (daily): 12/19 bullish reversal off 1.7727 followed by smaller-bodied candles (12/23–12/25) – a volatility contraction with indecision near support; within a downtrend, these often resolve lower unless bulls produce a range expansion up-day.

9. Volume and OBV (qualitative)

• Distribution characteristics: Heavy volume on down legs (e.g., 10/10 liquidation, late Nov drawdown, 11/21–11/24, early/mid Dec) with lighter volume on bounces – typical bear-market activity.
• OBV slope since mid-Dec: Flat to slightly down; no strong accumulation signal. The intraday rejection at 1.885 accompanied by a pick-up in prints indicates overhead supply remains firm.

10. ATR and expected move

• Recent daily ATR (qualitative): ~0.07–0.10. With holiday liquidity, a 24h realized move of ~0.05–0.09 is reasonable. That brackets a base case daily range of ~1.83–1.90 from the current 1.86 handle.

11. Elliott wave perspective (heuristic)

• From 3.099 peak, a 5-wave decline can be sketched: Wave 3 extended into November; a shallow wave 4 corrective bounce peaked 12/09; current action appears to be wave 5 subdivision, with a possible terminal sequence unfolding. The failure to reclaim 2.00 and persistent lower highs support a final push toward 1.80–1.77 to complete the structure before any larger countertrend rally.

12. Market profile/auction thought process

• Value building: 1.86–1.90 developing as a value area with persistent responsive selling at 1.88–1.90 and limited initiative buying. Single prints/low volume node near 1.875–1.885 suggest a good fade zone. If value migrates lower (acceptance under 1.86), price discovery toward 1.82/1.81 is likely.

13. Risk factors and invalidation

• Bearish invalidation (tactical): Clean hourly close above 1.90 and especially above 1.93 (recent swing supply). That would negate the descending triangle and open a path to 1.98–2.03 (20D SMA zone) and possibly 2.10.
• Event/flow risks: Holiday-thin liquidity can trigger stop sweeps in both directions; position sizing and disciplined stops critical. Absence of derivatives/funding data limits positioning insight; any sudden basis/funding shift could alter short-term path.

14. Scenario probabilities (next 24 hours)

• Base case – Range-to-down break (40%): Failures at 1.875–1.885 lead to a drift lower; loss of 1.859–1.855 triggers momentum to 1.83–1.82; extension into 1.81 possible.
• Sideways chop (35%): 1.855–1.885 pin as liquidity accumulates; closes near 1.86–1.87.
• Upside surprise (25%): Quick squeeze through 1.885 to 1.90–1.93; requires follow-through to negate short setup; likely fades unless 1.93 converts to support.

15. Trade plan and execution detail

• Bias: Sell strength
• Entry strategy: Short into 1.88–1.89 supply, ideally 1.882 for balanced fill versus intraday high 1.885. If price doesn’t bounce, optional add-only-on-pop; avoid chasing lows to preserve R:R.
• Stop-loss (not part of the requested outputs but essential): 1.932 (above the 1.93 cluster and intraday failure line) – invalidates the immediate bearish setup and the descending triangle structure.
• Take profit: 1.812 (front-run of 1.807 demand and ahead of 1.80 round number / projected measured move). Secondary extension potential 1.772–1.780 if momentum accelerates; consider scaling if liquidity allows.
• Risk/Reward: From 1.882 short, SL 1.932 (risk 0.050), TP 1.812 (reward 0.070) → R:R ~1:1.4. Improve R:R by adding if a rejection wick forms at 1.89 with volume.
• Time trigger/confirmation: Enter on a test and rejection of 1.88–1.89 (e.g., 5–15m candle with upper wick and RSI failing >55), or on a failed breakout above 1.885 returning into range.

16. Bottom line

• With price below key MAs, momentum negative, a descending triangle at support, and hourly rejections of 1.885, the path of least resistance remains modestly lower. I will sell a bounce into 1.882 with a target at 1.812 over the next 24 hours. A sustained break above 1.93 invalidates this view and would pivot the plan to reassess toward 1.98–2.03.