XRP Price Analysis Powered by AI

XRP: Short the 1.87 Rejection — Target Low 1.82s Within 24 Hours

Timeframe and data used

Daily OHLCV from 2025-09-30 to 2025-12-27 and intraday (hourly/15-min) to 2025-12-28 22:15 UTC. Current price: 1.86097.

Primary trend (daily): Down since early Oct high ~3.10. Sequence of lower highs from Nov 10 (2.577) → Nov 12 (2.447) → Dec 9 (2.174) → Dec 21 (1.947) → Dec 27 (1.874). Lower lows into Dec 18 (1.804). This is a classic bearish structure.
Secondary trend (last two weeks): Sideways-to-down. After a rebound from 1.804 (Dec 18) to ~1.93 (Dec 20), price rolled over and is consolidating between 1.83–1.93. Current action is in the lower half of that range.
Intraday regime (last 24h): Narrow, heavy mean reversion with mild sell pressure. Hourly highs stepping down slightly, notable sell bar 18:00–20:00 UTC pushing to 1.855–1.856, then tepid bounce to ~1.86.

Supports: 1) 1.832–1.843 (Dec 25–26 lows), 2) 1.804–1.81 (Dec 18 low/major swing), 3) psychological 1.80.
Resistances: 1) 1.869–1.876 (intraday caps; Dec 27–28 micro range), 2) 1.90/1.92, 3) 1.95, 4) 2.00–2.05 (former value area), 5) 2.10–2.11 (23.6% Fib from major swing).
Price currently trades below the 1.869–1.876 micro-resistance cluster and below the 1.90 round number, reinforcing a sell-the-rips bias.

MA20 (approx): ~1.936. Price below → bearish bias; MA20 acting as dynamic resistance since mid-Dec.
EMA8 (approx of last 8 closes): ~1.867. Price (1.861) below EMA8 → near-term momentum negative.
EMA21 (proxy for swing trend): ~1.935–1.94, above price → bearish.
MA50 (rough): mid-2.2s to low-2.3s given the Oct–Nov prints; well above price → downtrend intact.
Alignment: EMA8 < EMA21 < MA50 → classic bearish ribbon.

RSI(14) daily (est.): ~42–45. Sub-50 and rolling lower → bearish to neutral momentum, no oversold condition yet to force a strong bounce.
Stochastics (daily): Mid-range and curling down after failing near 1.93 area → favors renewed downside drift.
MACD (12,26,9) daily (est.): MACD line negative (~-0.07 to -0.09), histogram shallow but not crossing up → momentum is weak/negative; no confirmed bullish reversal.

ATR(14) daily (computed from Dec 14–27 ranges): ~0.076. Typical 24h travel band ≈ ±0.038 from mid. This comfortably accommodates a move from 1.87 resistance to 1.83–1.84 support within a day.
Intraday volatility today is compressed (hourly ranges 0.002–0.012). Compression at the lower half of the range often precedes a directional expansion; with the higher timeframe trend down, odds favor a downside break.

Mid-band ~ MA20 ≈ 1.936. Price persistently below the mid-band → sellers control. Bandwidth contracted vs. early Dec, suggesting a volatility squeeze. Squeezes in a downtrend statistically resolve lower more often than not.

Major swing: High 3.099 (Oct 2) → Low 1.804 (Dec 18) range = 1.295.
- 23.6% retrace ≈ 2.109; 38.2% ≈ 2.299; 50% ≈ 2.452; 61.8% ≈ 2.604. Recent bounces couldn’t reclaim even 23.6% persistently → weak bulls.
Intermediate swing: Nov 10 high 2.577 → Dec 18 low 1.804 (range 0.773).
- 38.2% ≈ 2.099; 50% ≈ 2.190; 61.8% ≈ 2.282. December rally stalled beneath 2.10–2.20 zone; rejection affirms broader downtrend.

Price below cloud; Tenkan below Kijun; cloud ahead likely bearish/flat. No bullish edge; cloud top overhead near 1.95–2.00 likely caps if price spikes.

Volume trending lower into holidays; lack of accumulation spikes near lows suggests more a passive dip-bid than aggressive buying. Breaks can run faster in thin books; downside tails are more likely to fill to liquidity pockets (1.83 and 1.81) before strong bids reappear.

Daily: Descending triangle characteristics since late Nov with flat-ish support 1.83–1.86 and lower highs. Measured move on decisive break of 1.83 projects toward 1.78–1.80; first target remains 1.82–1.83 given 24h horizon.
Intraday (last 24h): Bear flag/rectangle drift between ~1.856–1.876 with a failed push above 1.872 and quick reversion. The 18:00 UTC sell bar indicates supply overhead; subsequent candles failed to reclaim 1.869–1.872.

December anchored VWAP (qualitative) sits near ~1.98–2.00; price below → under water for month-long longs; rallies see supply from trapped longs.
Short-term session VWAP today is around mid-range (~1.866–1.868). Price closed slightly below; using that area as tactical sell zone is favored.

ADX likely subdued after the Dec 20–27 chop; DMI- marginally > DMI+ → mild bearish control in a low-trend environment. In such regimes, fading resistance tends to outperform chasing breakouts.

Base case (55%): Grind lower from 1.86–1.87 into 1.83–1.84 support, with intraday liquidity sweeps toward 1.82; close near 1.84–1.86.
Range (30%): Hold 1.855–1.875 band, multiple mean-reversion taps; limited directional follow-through in holiday liquidity.
Squeeze (15%): Quick stop-run through 1.876–1.88 toward 1.90–1.92; likely sold into on first test with rejection back into range.

Confluence bearish: price < EMA8/EMA21/MA20/MA50; RSI < 50; MACD negative; descending triangle near base; Bollinger squeeze below mid-band; December VWAP overhead; intraday supply capping 1.869–1.876.
Tactics: Look to sell a pop into 1.87–1.875 (prior intraday resistance and near session VWAP). Target the high-liquidity pocket just below the 1.832–1.843 shelf (around 1.824–1.835) within ATR capacity.

Optimal short entry: 1.8720 (limit on a rejection of the 1.869–1.876 zone). This aligns with intraday highs and maximizes reward while keeping tight invalidation above 1.888–1.90 if one were to use a stop.
Take-profit (24h): 1.8240. This is a realistic ATR-consistent extension through 1.832–1.843 support via a brief liquidity sweep, commonly seen in thin markets before a reflexive bounce.

Conclusion and 24h directional call

Bias: Bearish. Expect a drift to 1.83s with risk of a quick stab into low-1.82s. Use a sell-the-rip approach into 1.87s; cover near 1.82s.