Zcash at the Fib Crossroads: Tactical Long from 210 Support Toward a 231–233 Relief Rally

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Tactical rebound likely from 210–212 support toward 225–233 after a sharp intraday liquidation; medium-term uptrend still intact, short-term momentum oversold.
• Key confluence: 210–213 is a Fibonacci cluster (38.2% of the 74.46→297.01 leg and ~50% of the 128.17→297.01 leg), prior intraday liquidity pocket, and near an ascending primary trendline from early October.
• Strategy: Buy-the-dip near 208–212 with a first take-profit into 231–233 (hourly 61.8% retrace of today’s drop and supply zone below 232.5). Invalidation if 205 breaks with acceptance, opening 200/196.

Market context and structure

• Regime shift: ZEC broke out from 55–75 in late September to 297 on Oct 11, accompanied by multiple volume climaxes (Oct 9–11). Post-climax, price has been in a corrective phase with progressively lower highs (292 → 262 → 248 → 230), now printing 210.62 intraday.
• Trend structure (daily): Higher highs and higher lows since Oct 1 remain intact on the intermediate timeframe; current move is a corrective pullback within that trend, testing a major retracement cluster.
• Intraday (hourly, past 24h): Selloff from ~245 to ~210 with minimal counter-rallies; lower highs each hour and a late-day flush to new session lows (20:00 bar low 210.90), typical capitulation behavior toward a support cluster.

Support and resistance map

• Immediate support: 210.6 (current low), 209–208 (possible sweep), then 205, 200 (psychological/round), 196–198 (deeper fib and prior demand).
• Overhead resistance: 223.7 (38.2% retrace of 244.94→210.62 intraday drop), 227.8 (50% of same move), 231.8–232.6 (61.8% + prior pivot at 232.55), 237–241 (intraday distribution zone), 244–245 (session high/supply), 249–252 (daily pivot), 262.5, 276.8, 292–297 (ATH of this run).

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (daily, est. 14): After the surge to 292, RSI likely peaked >70 and has mean-reverted into the mid-40s to low-50s; consistent with a corrective phase rather than full trend reversal. This places daily RSI near neutral-to-slightly-oversold for a strong-trend asset.
• RSI (hourly): Rapid drop from 245 → 210 suggests hourly RSI near/just below classical oversold. This favors a mean-reversion bounce on 1–8 hour horizon once selling pressure abates.
• Stochastics (hourly, qualitative): Embedded in oversold territory with potential for a bullish cross if price stabilizes above 210–212.
• MACD (daily): Positive on the long lookback since early Oct, but histogram has rolled negative and the signal is crossing down—typical of a Wave 4/ABC correction. On hourly, MACD is stretched down and close to a turn if price bases.

Moving averages

• SMA5 (daily, approx): ~240; price is well below, reflecting short-term downside momentum.
• SMA10 (daily, approx): ~224; price modestly below; a rebound toward this area is reasonable over 24–48h.
• SMA20 (daily, rough): ~170–180 given the swift repricing since late September; price remains above the 20D mean, consistent with an intact medium-term uptrend.
• Interpretation: Short-term trend (5–10D) down; medium-term (20D) up. This is the classic pullback-within-uptrend profile.

Volatility and bands

• ATR (daily, qualitative): Expanded significantly since Oct 1; daily true ranges of 20–60 are common. A 24h move of 10–25 points is well within norms, supporting a 225–233 rebound window.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, qualitative): Bands are very wide after the blowoff. Price has reverted from upper band toward/just above the middle band region; room exists both for a reflexive bounce and further mean reversion if 205 fails. On hourly, bands expanded on the drop; a band-walk is slowing, indicating nearing exhaustion.
• Keltner Channels (hourly, qualitative): Price extended below lower channel; reversion toward the basis is likely if selling pauses.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price remains above the Kumo (cloud) on the daily timeframe following the early-October breakout.
• Tenkan-sen (fast baseline) likely around 230; current price below Tenkan signals corrective phase. Kijun-sen (slower baseline) likely much lower given 26-day lookback including pre-breakout prints; price well above Kijun, reinforcing medium-term bullish regime.
• Chikou span remains above historical price action on the daily; overall still bullish regime with an active pullback.

Fibonacci analysis and confluences

• Primary leg: 74.46 → 297.01 (Oct 1 open to Oct 11 high). Key retracements:
  • 38.2%: ~211.9 (current zone)
  • 50%: ~185.7
  • 61.8%: ~159.2 Confluence: current 210–213 aligns with 38.2% of the primary run.
• Secondary leg: 128.17 (Oct 7 low) → 297.01 (Oct 11 high).
  • 38.2%: ~232.5
  • 50%: ~212.6
  • 61.8%: ~192.6 The 50% of the secondary leg sits ~212.6, overlapping the primary 38.2% near 211.9—forming a strong fib cluster at 210–213.
• Intraday (today) leg: 244.94 → 210.62.
  • 38.2%: ~223.7
  • 50%: ~227.8
  • 61.8%: ~231.8 This maps cleanly to a 223.7 → 231.8 rebound corridor for a 24h mean-reversion move.

Volume and flows

• Massive upside volume 10/9–10/11 (breakout and blowoff), then waning but still elevated liquidity.
• Today’s selloff included several heavier-volume down hours (04:00, 11:00, 15:00–19:00 UTC) and lighter-volume bounces—capitulation profile into support.
• No clear distribution day on the daily following the blowoff that breaks the medium-term trend; rather, a typical post-climax digestion.

Pattern diagnostics

• Daily: Corrective channel/descending flag from the 297 top. A base at 210–213 would complete an ABC correction (A: 292→249, B: 249→262, C: 262→210), aligning with an Elliott Wave corrective structure terminating near a fib cluster.
• Hourly: Falling channel/descending wedge. A broke-of-structure trigger appears above ~223–225 (prior intraday pivot and 38.2% retrace of today’s drop). Break-and-hold above 225 opens 228/232 quickly.
• Candles: 20:00 hour closed near the lows; often a concluding flush before a stabilization. Confirmation is required via a higher low or a strong reclaim above 214–216 first.

Order flow/levels to watch (tactical)

• Liquidity likely resting below 210 round; a marginal sweep to 208–209 is possible before reversal.
• Reclaim ladder: 214.5 → 219.8 → 223.7 → 227.8 → 231.8. Acceptance above 223.7 shifts momentum to the upside for the 24h window.

Risk scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Hold 208–212, grind higher to 223–228, tag 231–233 at peak of bounce; then consolidate.
• Bear case (25%): Break 208 with momentum, test 205 then 200–202; bounce later to 214–218 but below 223 cap.
• Bull tail (15%): V-shaped squeeze above 225 early, accelerate to 237–241 or even 244 if liquidity thin and broader market risk-on.

Trade plan rationale

• Edge comes from confluence support (two independent fibs at 210–213), hourly oversold conditions, capitulative structure into a prior demand zone, and a wide daily ATR permitting a 10–20 point rebound without changing the larger corrective picture.
• Invalidations: Strong acceptance <205 on 1–2h closes shifts the day’s balance lower and puts 200/196 in play, reducing the long’s expectancy.

24h price path forecast

• Expected range: 206–233 (with tails possible to 204 and 237 if squeeze).
• Central path: early stabilization 210–213, marginal sweep to ~208 possible, rebound sequence 214 → 219 → 224/225 → 228 → 231/232, fade thereafter.

Positioning guidance (tactical)

• Entry: Staggered bids 208–211; if no dip, momentum entry on reclaim of 223–225 (breakout add). For the single optimal price, a limit near 208.80 captures a likely liquidity sweep while maintaining favorable R:R.
• Target: 231.8 aligns with 61.8% retrace of today’s drop and prior supply/pivot; it’s a prudent 24h target within ATR.
• Protective stop (for risk management; not part of the required fields): Below 202.5 (or tighter 204.8 if seeking higher R:R). This preserves the asymmetric profile if 210 cluster fails.

Bottom line

• The corrective slide has reached a high-probability inflection. The 210–213 cluster is technically significant; with hourly conditions stretched, the path of least resistance over the next 24 hours skews to a relief bounce. Execute a tactical Buy with a limit near 208.8, aim for 231.8, reassess at 223.7/227.8 on the way up for partials if managing actively.