Zcash Poised for Another Thrust: Buying the 343–346 Dip for a Run at 371

Comprehensive multi-method technical review and 24-hour outlook for Zcash (ZEC)

Summary view

• Regime: Strong uptrend on daily timeframe since mid-October, now consolidating in a high-volume acceptance area between 340–365 after a 20-day vertical markup from ~230 to ~370.
• Current structure: Bullish continuation bias with re-accumulation features; local resistance 360–365; supports 339–345 (intra-day), deeper at 330–335 and 315–318.
• 24h expectation: Upward skew; likely range 338–372 with a 60–65% probability of retest of 360–365 and a decent chance of a marginal new swing high test (368–372). Breakout extension risk to 380–395 exists but needs a strong thrust/volume expansion.
• Trade lean: Buy the dip near 343–345 with a take-profit into prior swing high supply (≈371).

Data grounding

• Current price: 345.915 (2025-10-30 12:48 UTC snapshot)
• Today’s session (so far): 351.4 O / 362.3 H / 339.4 L / 345.9 C; heavy intraday volatility with a sharp pullback to 339.5 then recovery to mid-340s.
• Key prior sessions:
  • 10/27 H 371.6; 10/28 pullback low 308.5, close 315.9; 10/29 strong recovery close 351.45; 10/30 consolidating below 360.
  • Explosive leg 10/25–10/27: 271 → 357 → 342 → 371 → consolidation.

Step-by-step toolkit analysis

1. Market structure (HH/HL, swing mapping)

• Daily: Clear higher-highs/higher-lows since 10/16 low (~203.6) → higher highs 10/27 (371.6). Pullback 10/28 to 308.5 created a higher low vs 10/21–10/24 base (246–275), preserving trend. Bounce 10/29 closing 351.5 re-established buyers’ control.
• Intraday (1h): Sequence from 10/29 shows higher lows at ~328.9 → 339.5 and lower highs around 360–362, forming a short-term ascending triangle type base under resistance 360–365.
• Implication: Continuation pattern beneath resistance with pressure building; structurally bullish until 330 gives way.

2. Moving averages (SMA/EMA)

• Daily 20SMA (approx): Rising steeply; given the markup, price significantly above 20SMA (likely ~300–315). 50SMA well below (~260–280). 200SMA much lower (~80–100+) due to the long prior downtrend before the spike.
• Daily takeaway: Strong positive MA slope confirming trend; distance above 20SMA implies overextension risk but consolidation is alleviating it.
• 4H/1H EMAs (9/21/55): Recent dip to 339 coincided with an intraday mean reversion toward 21–55 EMA region; quick reclaim into mid-340s is constructive. Flattening on 1H suggests consolidation rather than trend termination.
• Implication: Buy-the-dip bias into EMA clusters (342–346) while resistance capping 360–365.

3. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Daily: Bands expanded dramatically during the breakout; recent contraction indicates volatility compression. Price now oscillates near the upper/mid band region rather than persistently riding the upper band, which is typical of a consolidation before a follow-through attempt.
• 1H: After a push to the upper band (~362), price reverted to/below the basis around 345 and held. Lower band tag near 339 preceded an immediate bounce—classical mean-reversion behavior in range consolidation.
• Implication: With bands re-compressing intraday, a fresh volatility expansion attempt is likely; favor upside resolution given higher timeframe trend.

4. RSI (14)

• Daily (est.): Post-run RSI had been overbought; the sharp 10/28 pullback plus two-day consolidation likely cooled RSI to the mid-to-high 60s. This represents a reset within a bull trend.
• 1H: Mild bearish divergence appeared near 361–362 vs. earlier momentum highs, followed by a healthy reset to neutral (~45–55) on the 339 dip and subsequent bounce—no actionable bearish divergence persists now.
• Implication: Momentum reset supports another upside probe; not overheated on intraday scale.

5. MACD

• Daily: MACD above zero with narrowing histogram after the post-371 pullback—typical consolidation phase above the signal line. A re-widening histogram with any close above ~362 would confirm momentum re-acceleration.
• 1H: MACD bear cross occurred during the 362→339 pullback; histogram turned less negative into the bounce—set up for a neutral-to-bullish recross on a renewed push >358–360.
• Implication: Watch for intraday MACD recross to align with a resistance break attempt.

6. ADX / DMI

• Daily ADX likely elevated (>30) reflecting the strong trend leg. DI+ remains above DI− even after the pullback; ADX may be plateauing, consistent with consolidation.
• Implication: Trend still dominant; not a mature distribution (no clear DI− takeover).

7. ATR / Expected move

• Daily ATR (rough est.): 35–55 given recent daily ranges (e.g., 311–362, 326–372 moves).
• 24h expected range: ±5–8% from mid-350s translates to ~338–372 baseline, in line with chart supports/resistances.
• Implication: The prior high (371–372) sits right at the 1x ATR from current levels—reachable within 24h.

8. Volume profile and participation

• Major high-volume nodes built between 240–280 and more recently 330–360. Current acceptance forming around 345–355 suggests fair value establishing higher.
• Note the very large volume on 10/26–10/29; subsequent sessions still active, implying healthy participation.
• Implication: Building value higher after a markup favors reaccumulation over distribution.

9. VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Session VWAPs on 10/30 likely near mid-350s earlier in the day, then pulled lower by the 339 dip, with spot oscillating around/just below intraday VWAP.
• Anchored VWAP from 10/28 low (~308.5) is plausibly in the mid- to high-340s; current price hovering near this reference reinforces the idea of support/mean reversion in 343–346.
• Implication: Buying near/just below anchored VWAP in an uptrend is statistically favorable.

10. Fibonacci levels

• Swing: 10/28 L 308.5 → 10/29 H 361.9.
  • 38.2%: ~341.8 (tagged/held)
  • 50%: ~335.2
  • 61.8%: ~328.5
• Today’s low 339.5 effectively defended the 38.2% retracement and front-ran 50%—bullish for shallow pullback behavior.
• Larger swing: 10/20 L 230.8 → 10/27 H 371.6; 38.2% is ~316.5 and 50% ~301.2 (both held on the 10/28 selloff), reinforcing the higher timeframe uptrend.
• Implication: Respect shallow retracements; continuation probable.

11. Ichimoku (trend and levels)

• Daily: Price well above Kumo; Tenkan > Kijun; Lagging span above price—textbook bullish. Kijun likely trails in the 240–260 band; Tenkan above 300.
• 4H/1H: Intraday dips toward Kijun/Cloud have been bought; the 339 flush likely tagged fast lines and bounced.
• Implication: Positive; pullbacks to Tenkan/Kijun are buyable while cloud support is distant.

12. Candlestick/price action

• 10/28 printed a wide-range down day but closed well off lows—capitulative flush and absorption.
• 10/29 strong green continuation candle reclaiming mid-350s.
• Today (in-progress): Long intraday lower wick to 339 and recovery to 345–350 area—buying interest on dips.
• On the 1H, repeated upper wicks around 360–362 mark overhead supply, but troughs are rising—ascending triangle-like behavior.
• Implication: Expect another test of 360–365; a 1H close >362 increases odds of a run at 368–372.

13. Wyckoff lens

• After the mark-up (10/25–10/27), the 10/28 drop looks like a shakeout/spring of the new range, followed by automatic rally (AR) and secondary tests above 340. The structure reads as reaccumulation rather than distribution.
• Implication: Continuation after absorbing supply at 360–365.

14. Elliott wave sketch (heuristic)

• Wave 3 could have peaked near 371; 10/28 may have been wave 4 (sharp zig-zag); current push shaping wave 5 targeting a modest new high (375–395).
• Implication: Wave 5 often marginally exceeds wave 3 and can truncate; prudent to aim TPs into prior high supply.

15. Liquidity/Order flow concepts

• Liquidity pools:
  • Above 362–365 and just above 371–372 (prior swing high) where buy stops cluster.
  • Below 339–340 (today’s low), then 335 and 328 (Fib 50%/61.8%).
• Today’s wick to 339 likely swept intra-day longs’ stops and refueled.
• Implication: A sweep-and-reversal setup often precedes a topside attempt at the equal highs.

16. Correlation/Context

• Crypto beta: In strong risk-on phases, followers like ZEC exhibit amplified moves after majors. While not modeled here, the structure is consistent with a beta-driven continuation.
• Implication: If broader crypto firms up, breakout odds increase.

17. Risk assessment

• Bear case: Failure to reclaim/hold above 345 with sustained acceptance below 339 would open 335→328 fast. Break of 328 invalidates shallow-pullback thesis and risks a deeper mean reversion toward 315–318.
• Base case (most likely): Hold 339–345, compress, and rotate up into 360–365, with a late-session/overnight probe at 368–372.
• Bull case: Strong impulsive break and hold above 365→372 with volume; extension to 380–395 possible within 24–36h.

18. Strategy synthesis

• Given trend alignment, shallow Fibonacci defense, intraday VWAP anchoring, and ascending-triangle behavior under resistance, the asymmetric play is to buy slight dips near 343–345 and target the overhead liquidity at 371.
• R:R (illustrative): Entry 343.8, TP 371.0 (+27.2, ~7.9%); invalidate on decisive break/close <335 (−8.8, ~−2.6%) for a strong R:R skew. Note: Stop not requested but included conceptually for planning.

24-hour price path projection

• Likely path: 343–346 base → 356–360 retest → brief rejection → second attempt breaks 362–365 → wick to 368–372 where profit-taking emerges. If rejected twice at 362–365 without strong volume, range persists 342–362.

Conclusion

• Bias: Buy dips within 343–346 toward a test of 368–372 in the next 24 hours.
• Decision: Buy (Long position)
• Open and close prices: Open near 343.8; Close/TP at 371.0.