Zcash Breaks Out Above 371: Bull Flag Coil Targets the 410 Handle Next

Executive summary

• Regime: Very strong bullish trend with expansion in volatility and volume. Price has broken out above the 371–372 supply shelf and is consolidating just under new local highs near 388, forming a bull flag on the hourly. Momentum and breadth broadly support continuation, while short-term overextension argues for a shallow pullback before the next leg higher.
• 24h view: Base case is a dip-retest to 372–377 (prior breakout zone and hourly VWAP cluster) followed by an extension toward 402–412 (R2/pattern measured move/Fibonacci 1.272). Risk scenario is a deeper shakeout toward 348–352 (50% retrace of the 10/28–10/31 impulse) before resuming uptrend.

Price structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Daily: After a multi-week advance from ~128 (10/7) to ~388 (10/31 high), ZEC has reclaimed and cleared successive supply zones (326, 341, 371). Today’s push printed a higher high over 10/27’s 371.6 and 10/29’s 361.9, confirming a breakout and trend continuation. The candle structure is bullish with a small upper wick and strong body; intraday consolidation occurred above prior resistance—classic acceptance above the breakout level.
• 4h/1h: Since the 06:00 hour high near 388, price has ranged 363–386, crafting a narrowing bull flag/ascending consolidation. Lows are rising, highs capped at ~386–388; that’s a constructive coil under resistance. The midday pullback to ~363 was bought quickly, leaving a higher low versus 10/30’s close ~345–346.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (Daily, 14): Elevated and rising, indicative of a strong trend; estimated in the low-to-mid 70s. Overbought in a trend supports “overbought can stay overbought,” but it raises the likelihood of a brief mean-reversion dip before continuation.
• RSI (1h): Upper neutral to bullish (mid-60s to low-70s) with mild negative divergence versus the 06:00 high, favoring a brief retest/dip then a fresh push.
• MACD (Daily): Bullish cross well established; histogram expanding again after a minor mid-week contraction—trend continuation signal.
• Stochastic RSI (1h/4h): Cycling from overbought toward neutral; a reset into 40–60 on a dip to 372–377 would improve risk-adjusted entries.
• ADX (Daily): Strong trend regime (likely >30–35) with +DI > –DI, confirming directional strength.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (Daily, 20): Bands widening materially; price traveling near/above the upper band—momentum regime. Expect band walk with intermittent snaps back toward the 20-SMA on sharp shakes, but near-term behavior favors riding the upper band.
• ATR (Daily, 14): Expanded materially post-breakout; approximate daily range potential 40–60 points. For the next 24h, a 340–430 probabilistic envelope is reasonable, centering in the high 300s.

Volume, participation, and flow

• Volume (Daily): Expanding on up days and on the breakout—bullish confirmation. 10/26–10/31 saw heavy participation, consistent with a squeeze/impulse leg.
• OBV: Rising steeply, making new highs alongside price—healthy trend confirmation.
• Volume profile: A high-volume node around 340–360 and a developing node at 370–380. The break above 371 created a thin supply pocket toward 400–405; low-volume zones tend to get traversed quickly once reclaimed.

Ichimoku overview (Daily)

• Price well above a rising Tenkan and Kijun; bullish cloud ahead. Large Tenkan-Kijun spread signals overextension but also strong momentum. Any Tenkan/Kijun tap (roughly mid/high 200s to low 300s) would be high-probability support on larger timeframes; near-term that’s unlikely unless a deeper flush occurs.

Moving averages

• EMAs/SMA stack (20/50/100): Bullish alignment and positive slope; pullbacks to the 20EMA on the 4h/1h have been bought. Daily 20SMA trails meaningfully below spot, underscoring trend strength and the risk of shallow dips rather than deep retracement.

Key levels and confluence

• Prior resistance turned support: 371–372 (10/27 high/10/29 high area) now first support; 376–377 hourly congestion adds confluence.
• Intraday VWAP/MA cluster: 1h VWAP and short MAs oscillate 378–382; dips below toward 374–377 are buyable in trend.
• Classical pivots for 10/31 (derived from 10/30 H/L/C):
  • Pivot P ≈ 336.7; R1 ≈ 373.8; R2 ≈ 401.9; R3 ≈ 438.9; S1 ≈ 309.6
  • Price accepted above R1 all session and is coiling just below R2, typical of trends that aim for the next pivot.
• Fibonacci (recent impulse 10/28 low ~308.5 to 10/31 high ~388.2):
  • 38.2% ≈ 357.7; 50% ≈ 348.2; 61.8% ≈ 338.7. These map the “deeper dip” path if 372 fails.
  • 1.272 extension ≈ 409.7; 1.618 ≈ 437.4—natural upside magnets beyond 388.

Pattern diagnostics

• Ascending triangle/breakout: Horizontal cap ~371–372 cleared, now retest/acceptance phase. Measured move from the late-October range (approx. 308–372 height ~64) projects toward ~436 if fully realized; near-term, an initial waypoint is 402–412.
• Bull flag on the hourly under 388: Break above 388–389 likely releases a momentum burst toward 400–405 quickly.

Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈60%): Shallow dip to 372–377, holds as support; push through 388–389 opens 400–405, extension toward 409–412 (Fibo 1.272 and R2 cluster).
• Alternate (≈30%): Liquidity sweep toward 357–352 (38.2–50% of the latest impulse); buyers defend and price reclaims 372–377 late, delaying but not negating the upside path.
• Bear case (≈10%): Failure below 338–341 (61.8% retrace/volume node) would neutralize the short-term bull; not my primary expectation given volume/momentum.

Risk management notes

• Overextension: Daily is stretched from the 20SMA/Kijun; intraday dips can be swift. Avoid chasing highs; favor pullback entries in the 372–377 zone.
• If deploying stops (not requested): Logical invalidation for a tactical long sits below 348–352. A tighter risk stop would be under 368–371 if using a shallow-pullback thesis.

Bottom line

• Confluence of breakout structure, momentum (MACD/RSI), positive volume/OBV, and pivot/Fibonacci targets favors a buy-the-dip approach. Optimal entry is a retest of the 372–377 shelf; upside magnet sits at 402–412, with scope to stretch toward 420 if momentum surges.