Zcash at the 50%–61.8% sweet spot: Buy the 414 dip for a 433 snapback

Executive summary

• Regime: ZEC is in a powerful uptrend on the daily timeframe following a parabolic advance from ~40 in late September to a 400+ handle by 10/31, with an intraday spike to ~445 today. The last 24 hours show a blow‑off attempt and first meaningful intraday retracement/consolidation.
• Bias (next 24h): Range-to-slightly-bullish. Expect a dip probe toward 413–415 (61.8% intraday Fib, hourly Kijun/pivot cluster), then a rebound toward 428–435. Breaks of 435 could revisit 445; loss of 405 opens 395–400.
• Plan: Buy-the-dip at ~414 for a snapback toward ~433 (take profit), with an invalidation under ~405.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Weekly/Daily trend: Strongly bullish. The sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. This week’s range expansion and volume confirm a trend acceleration typical of a late-stage upside blow‑off that often transitions into broadening consolidation.
• Daily structure: Key levels: 345–351 (10/29 pivot/close), 371 (10/27 resistance), 405 (10/31 close), today’s intraday 445 high and 395 low. Price is building a new value area in the low 400s after the vertical run.
• Intraday (hourly) structure 10/31–11/01:
  • High 445 (06–07h), quick liquidation to ~426 (08–10h), capitulation wick to ~395 (14h), then recovery to ~423–425 (18–19h) and close near ~419.
  • Lower highs (445 → 435 → 429) and rising lows post-panic (395 → 410 → ~418) form a contracting triangle/flag. These usually resolve with one more liquidity sweep before direction is chosen; in strong uptrends, first triangles often break up after a deeper final dip.

2. Key support/resistance mapping

• Immediate resistance: 425–429 (intraday supply + hourly VWAP zone), 432–435 (prior lower high cluster), 443–445 (intraday high/supply shelf).
• Immediate support: 419–420 (50% intraday retracement), 413–415 (61.8% retracement + hourly baseline confluence), 405–408 (10/31 close + 38.2% two‑day retracement), then 395 (session low) and 371.
• Market profile read (intraday): Volume heavy across 420–425; Point of Control (POC) likely around 420–422. Acceptance below POC favors a probe to 413–415 before buyers reassert; acceptance back above 425 reopens 432–435.

3. Momentum and mean-reversion signals

• Daily RSI: Likely mid/high-70s to low-80s after the surge; still overbought but pulling back from extremes. In strong trends, such RSIs can persist, but typically resolve via time/price consolidation rather than immediate trend reversals.
• Hourly RSI: Peaked on the 445 print, then reset close to neutral (40–55 band). Post-capitulation, RSI divergence is modest; momentum is stabilizing near midline—consistent with consolidation and staged recovery.
• MACD: Daily still strongly positive but histogram likely flattening (early loss of upside momentum). Hourly MACD crossed down after the high, now attempting to curl; a higher low in histogram near 413–415 would set up a positive cross and support a bounce.

4. Moving averages and distance-from-trend

• 20D SMA ≈ 276 (approximation from last 20 closes). Price at ~419 is ~52% above the 20D—an extreme extension that usually mean-reverts via sideways or partial pullback. 50D SMA is far lower (~160–200s), underscoring the parabolic character.
• Intraday EMAs (hourly): Price currently oscillates around hourly 20/50 EMAs circa 418–423; reclaiming the 50 EMA and VWAP cluster (~425–428) would strengthen the bounce case.

5. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR exploded; today’s intraday H-L ~50 (12%+)—volatility expansion phase.
• Expect a 24h range of roughly 405–435 unless a fresh catalyst expands volatility. Inside this band, fading edges and mean-reversion toward the 420–425 value area has positive expectancy.

6. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Daily bands have expanded sharply; price sits near/above the upper band after the blow‑off. A consolidation drift toward the upper band and/or mean is common. Intraday bands compressed after the liquidation and are re‑widening; reversion to mid-band (~VWAP/MA cluster 424–426) is the base case after a dip.

7. Fibonacci confluences

• Intraday 11/01: High 444.74 / Low 394.62
  • 38.2%: ~425.59
  • 50%: ~419.68
  • 61.8%: ~413.76 Price closed near 50%; a sweep toward 61.8% (413–415) is a high-probability liquidity test before a bounce.
• Two-day swing (10/31 low 340.79 → 11/01 high 444.74):
  • 38.2%: ~405.7
  • 50%: ~392.8
  • 61.8%: ~379.9 The 405–408 band is a critical higher-timeframe support. Holding above it keeps the momentum structure intact; losing it risks a deeper mean-reversion into the high 300s.

8. VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Intraday VWAP for 11/01 estimated ~424–428 given heavy turnover at early highs and later recovery. Price at 419 sits below VWAP, implying sellers control intraday; mean-reversion to VWAP is a probable path if 413–415 holds.
• Anchored VWAP from 10/31 open/close (~405) likely sits slightly above 405 given the upside skew; the 405 area is thus also an AVWAP support region.

9. Ichimoku (hourly, conceptual)

• Price has pulled back toward/into the cloud; Kijun (baseline) approximates to ~414–417 after the wide range, with Tenkan near ~420. A dip to Kijun often precedes a bounce if the broader trend is healthy. Chikou span retains upside context on higher timeframes.

10. Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• Intraday shooting-star/upper-wick cluster near 443–445 signaled local exhaustion.
• 14:00 formed a hammer-like bar (long lower shadow to ~395, close ~401), often a short-term low marker.
• Subsequent candles posted higher lows and lower highs—symmetrical triangle/flag. A final dip to 413–415 would complete an ABC corrective structure before a relief push.

11. Elliott Wave framing (tactical)

• The move from ~340 (10/31) to ~445 (11/01) resembles an impulse; today’s drop to ~395 was wave A, bounce to ~423–425 wave B, with a potential shallow wave C finishing near 413–415 (common equality/multiple to A after an overshoot). Post-C completion, a corrective rally toward 0.382–0.618 retrace of the entire pullback aligns with 428–435.

12. OBV/volume behavior

• Large volume on the morning spike and on the liquidation tail suggests both climactic buying and forced selling. Post-washout volumes normalized while price stabilized near 420, indicating absorption rather than persistent distribution. OBV intraday likely flat to slightly down, consistent with balance.

13. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (45%): Range-bound consolidation 413–435. Early dip into 413–415 attracts buyers, then mean-reversion to 425–433 by end of window.
• Bullish extension (35%): Quick reclaim of 429–435 leads to a test of 443–445. Requires breadth pickup and acceptance above VWAP; upside tails likely fade near prior high unless fresh momentum enters.
• Bearish risk (20%): Failure at 419–420 leads to 413–415 break; 405–408 then becomes the magnet. A daily close below ~405 would threaten a deeper pullback toward 395/392.

14. Risk management and execution

• Entry: Staggered limit buy in the 413.5–415.5 zone (we will specify 414.2 as the optimal single-price trigger) where 61.8% intraday Fib, hourly Kijun, and prior micro base align.
• Invalidation (stop, not part of the schema but critical): ~404.8 (below 10/31 close and two-day 38.2%), acknowledging potential slippage in high vol. Risk ~9.4 points from 414.2.
• Target (take profit): 432.9 (beneath 432–435 supply to improve fill probability and R:R ≈ 2:1). Scale-outs between 428–435 would be optimal in practice.
• Contingency: If price never dips to 414 and instead reclaims >429 with acceptance above VWAP, a momentum continuation buy could target 440–445 with tighter risk; however, the higher-odds, lower-slippage plan is the buy-the-dip.

15. Why not short here?

• Shorting into a primary uptrend during the first consolidation after a blow‑off has unfavorable skew: squeezes are frequent, and supports (405, 413–415, 420) are stacked closely. While a tactical short from 429–432 into 413–415 can work, risk of continuation above 435 into 445 is elevated. The better asymmetric setup is to buy support with tight invalidation.

24-hour price path expectation

• Path: 1) Early drift lower to ~413–415, 2) Bounce and reclaim of ~420–425, 3) Probe to ~429–433, 4) Fade into close of window toward ~422–428 if no breakout catalyst. Expansion above 435 is possible but less likely without fresh volume.

Bottom line

• Tactical Buy (Long) on a controlled dip into ~414 with TP ~433. This respects the primary uptrend while exploiting intraday mean-reversion and strong support confluence. Invalidation if sustained trade below ~405.