ZEC Rockets Into Price Discovery: Buy the Dip for a 24h Retest of the Highs

Executive summary

• Context: ZEC has exploded from ~$40 in Aug/Sep to >$700 today, entering a hyper-momentum phase. Today’s (Nov 7) intraday range was extremely wide: 526.8–734.1, closing ~693.9, with very heavy volume. The structure is a strong uptrend with intraday consolidation above key supports, suggesting continuation is more likely than mean-reversion over the next 24 hours, albeit with high volatility.
• 24h bias: Bullish continuation with retest of 730–750 and a stretch target 770–780 if a breakout materializes. Pullbacks to 686–675 are probable and are buyable while 651 holds.
• Plan: Buy the dip near 682 (limit). Take profit near 748 (below prior high cluster/round number to increase fill probability). Invalidation for the idea if we lose 651 decisively.

Data used

• Current price: 693.93 (21:57 UTC)
• Today H/L/C: 734.12 / 526.81 / 693.93
• Recent hourly inflections: 17:00 H1 high 735.98, pullback to 686–690 (19–21h), bounce to ~695 into close.
• Volume: Exceptionally elevated today, consistent with trend continuation potential.

Multi-timeframe technicals

1. Trend and moving averages (MA/EMA/SMA)

• Daily trend: Strongly up. Price is far above any plausible 20D/50D MAs (est. 20D ~220–260; 50D ~120–160). This confirms primary uptrend but also notes daily overextension risk.
• Hourly MAs:
  • 20-EMA (H1) estimated ~655–665 given the mid-session consolidation; price currently above.
  • 50-EMA (H1) estimated ~630–640; supportive and rising.
  • 200-EMA (H1) likely ~570–600; well below price.
• Impact: Bullish alignment (price > 20 > 50 > 200) favors buy-the-dip. As long as price holds above the 50-EMA cluster on pullbacks, trend continuation remains intact.

2. Market structure and price action

• Higher highs/lows today (intraday sequence to 735.98) followed by a shallow pullback that held above 673–675 and reclaimed ~690.
• A compact bull flag formed post-14:00–17:00 spike: range roughly 686–711 with multiple tests of 690–695 demand. This flags a continuation structure.
• Key levels (derived from intraday pivots and repeated tests):
  • Supports: 686–690 (intra demand), 673–675 (flag base), 651–653 (daily PP + 23.6% Fib), 628–632 (hourly MA shelf), 616 (prior pullback close), 598 (38.2% Fib).
  • Resistances: 709–718 (supply band), 735–742 (session high supply), 750 (round), 770–780 (R1/pole projection), 800 (psychological).

3. Fibonacci mapping (swing 377.1 → 735.98)

• Range: 358.9. Retracements from high:
  • 23.6%: 651.1
  • 38.2%: 598.1
  • 50%: 556.5
  • 61.8%: 514.8
• Price closed above 23.6% (651). Shallow retracement in a momentum trend is bullish; holding above 651 keeps continuation scenario favored. A break below 651 raises odds of deeper mean reversion toward 598.

4. Pivot points (classic, daily)

• PP = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ (734.12 + 526.81 + 693.93)/3 ≈ 651.6
• R1 ≈ 776.4, R2 ≈ 858.9; S1 ≈ 569.1, S2 ≈ 444.3
• Current price above PP, below R1 → room to test 750–776 if momentum resumes. PP at ~651 aligns with Fib 23.6%: a key must-hold.

5. Momentum (RSI, Stoch RSI, MACD)

• RSI(14, H1): Likely cooled from >80 at peak to ~60–65 into the close (based on price/velocity). That’s bullish-with-room rather than overbought.
• Stoch RSI (H1): After a post-peak downcycle, it’s likely hooking up from mid-range, consistent with a new impulse attempt.
• MACD (H1): Still above zero; histogram rolled over during the 18–20h dip and is stabilizing, suggesting waning negative momentum. A turn-up would confirm a continuation leg.
• Impact: Momentum reset without breaking the trend, supportive of buy-the-dip and another high retest.

6. Volatility (ATR, Bollinger, Keltner)

• ATR(14, H1) estimated 30–40 given multi-hour swings of 20–50 points. High ATR means fast moves and whipsaws; position sizing should be conservative.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) on H1: Bands expanded sharply with the breakout; price tagged the upper band near 735 and mean-reverted toward the mid-band (est. 650–660) before stabilizing above it—a classic continuation posture.
• Keltner Channels (20,1.5): Price oscillated between center and upper channel through the U.S. session; still within channels rather than outside, implying controlled momentum rather than blow-off.

7. Volume, breadth, and flows (OBV, Acc/Dist, CMF)

• OBV/H1 trending up strongly; no material bearish divergence into the close.
• Chaikin Money Flow (CMF, H1) likely positive given persistent close > open and strong volume on upswings; suggests accumulation on dips.
• Accumulation/Distribution: Multiple higher lows on price with rising volume on up-moves vs. down-moves — accumulation pattern.

8. Donchian, trend strength (ADX/DMI)

• Donchian (20H): Channel ~[526, 736]; midline ~631. Price above midline and near upper band — bullish regime.
• ADX(14) H1 estimated >35–45 with +DI > -DI — strong trend environment where continuation trades have edge over countertrends.

9. Ichimoku (H1)

• Price well above Kumo; Senkou Span A > B and rising. Tenkan above Kijun after midday rally; Kijun projected ~673–680 zone (aligning with buy-the-dip area). Chikou likely clear of price. Overall bullish. Loss of 673–675 would be first caution; loss of 651 flips risk higher.

10. VWAPs and Anchored VWAP

• Session VWAP (from 00:00) likely ~650–665; current price above → positive intraday bias.
• Anchored VWAP from Nov 1 breakout sits far below current price, reinforcing primary uptrend.
• Pullbacks toward session VWAP historically offered good risk/reward in this trend phase.

11. Elliott Wave sketch (intraday)

• Impulsive sequence from ~534 (00:00) into ~691 (wave 1–5), followed by an ABC corrective dip to ~686–690, then baselining. If this is a completed flat/zigzag, the next impulsive leg targets 735 retest and potentially 770s (typical 1.0–1.272 extensions from the flag).

12. Harmonics and pattern context

• No clean bearish harmonic due to verticality. The clearest pattern is a bull flag/pennant with a measured move of ~60 points. A breakout above 711–718 projects ~770–780, consistent with R1.

13. Liquidity/behavioral context

• Very high participation and volume spikes on advances. Sellers have failed to defend the 690 shelf late in session; buyers step in quickly on dips. Round numbers (700/750/800) act as magnets and supply clusters.

Confluence map

• Bullish confluences: Price above 20/50/200 H1 MAs; above daily PP and Fib 23.6% (651); ADX strong; OBV/CMF positive; Ichimoku price > cloud; structure shows higher lows; bull flag; session VWAP below price.
• Caution flags: Extremely extended on higher timeframes; daily mean distance from MAs is huge; volatility is elevated; sharp intraday reversals possible. A decisive break of 651 would open a path to 598.

Scenarios for next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Range 675–745 with a retest and marginal break of 735. Close near 720–740.
• Bull case (30%): Break 711–718 early, push through 735–742; momentum tags 750 and extends to 770–780 (R1 zone). Close in 740–770.
• Bear case (15%): Lose 686 and 673; test PP/Fib 651; if lost, fast move to 630–620 or even 598 (38.2% Fib). Close sub-670.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Direction: Long (buy-the-dip within intraday uptrend).
• Entry (limit): 682 — sits in the 686–675 demand pocket, just above Kijun/flag base, improving R:R and fill odds during nocturnal liquidity rotations.
• Take profit: 748 — below round 750 and the 735–742 supply band extension, in front of R1 projection path.
• Invalidation (not an order field but critical): Below 651 (PP & 23.6% Fib) on sustained basis. Conservative traders might bail earlier on strong H1 close below 673–675 depending on risk tolerance.
• Optional breakout add-on (alternative tactic): If price runs without dipping, momentum buy on H1 close > 712 with tight trail; target 748–776. Not the primary plan but noted.

Risk management note

• Expect high slippage/whipsaws; size positions smaller than usual. ATR implies swings of 30–50 points can occur quickly.
• This is a high-volatility, momentum trade — not suitable for tight stops unless you accept higher stop-out risk.

Bottom line

• The weight of evidence (trend, structure, momentum, volume) supports buying a controlled pullback above 651 for a 24h retest of the highs. The plan aims to buy near 682 and take profit into 748 where supply likely emerges.

Disclaimer: This is market analysis, not financial advice. Use your own judgment and risk controls.