Zcash Price Analysis Powered by AI

Zcash: Post-Parabola Shakeout Sets Up a High-R:R Dip Buy Toward 655

Executive Summary

Regime: Violent uptrend on the daily timeframe after a parabolic breakout; intraday has transitioned from capitulation flush to range-bound repair with higher lows.
Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish with a buy-the-dip setup; expect a 560–655 trading range, with an upside skew toward 620–655 and optional extension to 690 if 655 breaks and holds.
Plan: Buy pullbacks into 575 ±10 with a take-profit around 655; reassess if 560 fails on a closing basis.

From ~40 in mid-Aug to >700 on Nov 7, ZEC printed a classic parabolic expansion. The last completed daily candle (Nov 7) closed at 642.81 after a 736.51 high—extreme momentum and volatility expansion with record volumes.
Current day (Nov 8, in-progress) shows a deep intraday pullback (low ~501.6) bought aggressively, with price now ~590.85—forming a long lower shadow behavior intraday, typical of post-parabolic shakeouts where late shorts get trapped on rebounds.
Key daily levels from recent action: 736.5 (spike high), 693–697 (hourly supply shelf), 655 (intraday resistance/November 8 high), 642.8 (Nov 7 close), 533.7 (Nov 6 close), 477.7 (Nov 5 close), 445 (Nov 4 close).
Regime posture: Price remains massively extended above any sensible 20D/50D averages (which lag far below), signaling trend dominance but also mean-reversion risk. Post-spike consolidations frequently resolve higher after 1–3 sessions of digestion if the trend is intact.

Hourly (H1)

Nov 8 range: ~501.6–654.5. Sequence: gap down/open weakness → liquidation to ~500 → V-shape recovery to ~619 → consolidation around 575–595 into the latest print 590.85.
Higher lows visible: ~512 → ~571–572 → ~570–572 region later; that’s constructive.
Overhead supply stacks: ~618–620, 654–655, 693–697; supports: 590–596 (38.2% fib zone), 575–578 (50%), 560–562 (61.8%), 533–535 (S1/pivot confluence), 512, 500.

With the daily parabola, any standard SMA/EMA (10–50 day) trails far below. This indicates primary trend up. On intraday, fast MAs likely flattened after the liquidation and are beginning to curl up as price forms higher lows; slope inflection is consistent with a rebuilding phase.
Translation: Primary uptrend intact; intraday trend attempting to transition from down to sideways-to-up.

Daily RSI is very likely in overbought territory post run (high-70s/80s), normally a risk flag—yet in strong trends, overbought can persist while price grinds up.
Hourly RSI likely mid-range (45–55) after the flush and bounce, which is neutral/balanced and leaves room for a push higher if resistance breaks.
MACD (H1) probably crossed up from deeply negative as price reclaimed 575–600; a rising histogram would align with a continuation push toward 620–655.

Daily bands are extremely expanded—hallmark of a volatility regime shift. Intraday realized vol remains high; wide ranges are expected to persist 24–48 hours post-spike.
On H1, price has mean-reverted off the lower band (post-flush) and is now oscillating mid-band; volatility compression into a pennant would be a bullish continuation tell if highs get tested again.

Daily: Price is far above the cloud; trend state is bullish. Lagging span would be clear of past price—trend confirmation.
Hourly: After the selloff, price likely tested/entered the cloud and is attempting to re-emerge; a clean break/hold above the hourly baseline/conversion lines near 600–620 would confirm intraday trend resumption.

Intraday high: 654.5; low: 501.6; range: ≈152.9.
38.2% retrace: ~596.1; 50%: ~578.0; 61.8%: ~560.0.
Current price 590.85 sits between the 38.2% and 50% zones—classic battleground after a strong bounce. The 575–580 buy zone aligns with 50% and is just above the VWAP-inflected area from the mid-session ramp, offering favorable reward-to-risk.

Pivot P ≈ (736.51+526.25+642.81)/3 ≈ 635.19.
S1 ≈ 2P − H ≈ 533.87; R1 ≈ 2P − L ≈ 744.13.
Today’s action respected the region between S1 (~534) and P (~635). The market rejected deep sub-S1 excursions (~500) and is attempting to migrate back toward P. If price reclaims/holds above ~635, upside momentum often accelerates.

Heavy turnover occurred around 570–600 and again near 615–620 during the recovery; these zones likely host developing value. Expect responsive buyers near 575–585 and passive offers near 618–620 and 654–655.

Intraday hammer-like behavior: Large lower wick day-in-progress. On the hourly, a coil/pennant is attempting to form above 570. A bullish resolution targets 620–655; failure targets 560 then 533.

Larger structure resembles an extended wave 3/5 blow-off into 736, with an ABC corrective wave unfolding intraday. The ‘A’ leg likely printed at ~501.6, ‘B’ leg near ~619, and a shallow ‘C’ may have already completed around ~570–575. If so, next is a motive attempt toward 620–655; invalidation if 560 fails decisively.

Supports: 590–596 (38.2%), 575–578 (50% + intraday value), 560–562 (61.8%), 533–535 (S1 + prior day structure), 512, 500 (psychological/intraday spike low).
Resistances: 618–620 (intraday shelf/MA cluster), 654–655 (intraday high), 693–697 (hourly supply), 736.5 (spike high).
Confluence for entry: 575–580 has Fibonacci 50%, repeated intraday buying interest, and proximity to mid-day value—high-quality location to define risk.

Base Case (≈50%): Range 560–655 with upward drift. Price dips into 575–585, finds bids, pushes 620–635, and tests 650–655 late session. Close ~630±20.
Bull Case (≈30%): Quick reclaim of 620 and 635 pivot, impulsive run to 655; a clean breakout extends to 690–700 where prior supply (693–697) reacts. Close ~660–680.
Bear Case (≈20%): Failure to hold 575–580, a break of 560 triggers a slide to 533–535; reactive bounce into 560–575 into close. Close ~550–565.

Long trigger zone: 575 ±10 (limit entry on pullback rather than chasing at 590–595). This captures the 50% retracement and sits above the 61.8% safety net.
Momentum confirmation: Add/hold if price reclaims and holds 620 on volume; partials into 650–655.
Invalidation: Intraday close below 560 or multiple hourly holds below 562 shifts bias to a deeper retracement toward 533.

Reward-to-risk: From 575 buy to 655 TP is +80. Risk if stopped at 555/560 is −15 to −20. That’s ~4:1 to 5:1 expected R multiple on the base case burst higher.
Liquidity: Volumes are ample; slippage acceptable near 575–585 bands. Use limits in the zone to avoid paying up during spikes.

Expected path: Early dip probing 575–585, then push toward 620–635 by mid-window; late attempt at 650–655. Probability-weighted close in the 620–640 band; tail risk to 690 if 655 breaks amid momentum re-ignition; downside tail to 533 if 560 fails.

Decision Synthesis

The primary trend remains up, intraday structure has repaired with higher lows, fib/pivot confluences support a buy-the-dip approach, and asymmetry favors longs against 560. Therefore, Buy dips; do not chase.