Zcash coils beneath 670: poised for a 24h push toward 690–705 if resistance breaks

ZEC multi-timeframe technical dossier (24h outlook)

Executive snapshot

• Regime: Extremely strong uptrend on the daily timeframe, with post-parabolic consolidation on intraday charts. Volatility is in a high regime and expanding.
• Location: Price 639 is well above rising short- and intermediate MAs; currently consolidating below near-term resistance 665–670 after a sharp bounce from the Nov 8 washout to ~499.
• Bias (24h): Moderately bullish with breakout potential if 665–670 clears; base case is a range 620–670 with upside skew toward 690–705 on expansion.

1. Price structure and trend

• Daily market structure: Since late Sep, a sequence of higher highs/higher lows accelerated into a parabolic leg. Nov 7 printed a blow-off style high near 736, followed by a deep but orderly retracement (low ~499 on Nov 8) and a rebound. Today’s in-progress candle is a bullish continuation above yesterday’s midpoint.
• Intraday (1h) structure: After the overnight trough ~546–570, ZEC stair-stepped higher: HLs near 596 → 630 → 635 and HHs 653 → 667. The last hours show consolidation 635–667, forming a bull-flag/pennant-like compression under resistance.
• Key levels (spot 639): • Resistance: 665–670 (hourly supply and pivot R1 cluster), 690–705 (round number + measured move), 736–740 (prior spike high, classic liquidity shelf), 742–745 (R2 from pivots) • Support: 630–635 (intraday shelf/HL cluster), 610–615 (hourly demand; near Tenkan/short MAs), 590 (prior acceptance), 570 (38.2% retrace zone from the Nov 8 swing), 550–555 (1h demand), 518–520 (50% daily retrace region from the bigger swing)

2. Moving averages (trend gauges)

• Daily EMAs/SMAs (approximate): • 9-EMA rising and below price; sits roughly in the 580–610 zone after strong recent closes. Price above = bullish momentum intact. • 20-SMA/EMA rising steeply; midline around the low-to-mid 400s historically, but given recent surge, dynamic support projects higher; price materially above = extended trend condition. • 50-SMA rising (likely in the 200–300s), far below price; confirms dominant uptrend and wide separation (trend strong, but extended/mean-reversion risk exists).
• Intraday (1h) EMAs: • 8/21/55-EMA stack is bullish (8>21>55) after the bounce; pullbacks to 21/55 EMA (roughly 630–615) have been bought. Interpretation: Strong trend across TFs; intraday posture constructive while above 630–635.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Overbought cluster (likely mid-70s). After the Nov 7 peak, RSI cooled on Nov 8 and is recharging. Persistent overbought in strong trends tends to resolve with shallow consolidations or continuation pushes.
• 1h RSI: Range-bound with bullish resets; no strong bearish divergence vs 667 high; mild momentum compression consistent with a bullish pennant.
• Stochastic (1h): Cycling from midline; dips into 40–50 have led to fresh pushes. Momentum is poised to re-accelerate on a 667 break. Interpretation: Momentum cooled but remains net-positive; room exists for a fresh impulse if resistance breaks.

4. MACD

• Daily: MACD line well above signal and zero; histogram contracted on Nov 8 pullback and is attempting a re-expansion. No decisive bear cross in sight.
• 1h: MACD pulled back during the 667 rejection, then stabilized near zero; a cross-up on break of 655–667 would confirm another impulse. Interpretation: Bullish with potential for re-acceleration on trigger.

5. Volatility and trend strength

• ATR (daily): Elevated after multi-hundred-dollar ranges; expect 80–140+ intraday swings to remain possible.
• ADX (daily): Likely >35–40, confirming a strong trend regime. Trend continuation is favored while ADX stays elevated and +DI remains dominant. Interpretation: High volatility favors breakout-and-run behavior; risk management crucial.

6. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Bands expanded sharply on the parabolic leg; price pulled from upper band on Nov 8 and is now rebuilding toward the upper half of the envelope. Riding the outer band is common in strong trends; a sustained close above ~665 would likely walk the upper band toward 690–705. Interpretation: Setup for another band ride if resistance gives way.

7. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price well above Cloud; Span A > Span B; Cloud thickening (trend quality strong). Tenkan above Kijun with a wide gap; Tenkan projected support around ~600 ±; Kijun deeper ~500 ±. Chikou above price = bullish. Interpretation: Pullbacks to the Tenkan (~600) are buyable; distance from Kijun signals an extended, but intact bull impulsive phase.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Larger swing (approx): Oct 30 low ~300 → Nov 7 high ~736 • 38.2%: ~570; 50%: ~518; 61.8%: ~466 • Nov 8 low ~499 landed between 50–61.8 zone; solid reaction from a textbook retracement area.
• Near-term swing: Nov 5 ~478 → Nov 7 ~736 • 38.2%: ~637; 50%: ~607; 61.8%: ~578 • Current ~639 sits just above the 38.2% of this swing, a bullish reclaim. Holding >637–640 keeps the door open for 690–705 extension. Interpretation: Reclaiming 38.2% after a deeper flush is bullish; next impulse can target 0.786/1.0 extensions near 690–736.

9. Volume, OBV, participation

• Daily: Successive surges into the Nov 7 peak showed climactic but not terminal volume; Nov 8’s heavy distribution was absorbed with a strong close above the 50% retrace area.
• 1h: Highest participation printed on the 18:00–19:00 UTC ramp/rotation. Consolidation volumes contracted into the 640s, typical before a break. OBV slope on intraday looks constructive since the 596 HL. Interpretation: Dip-buying interest remains; lack of heavy selling on subsequent tests of 630–640 argues for buyers in control.

10. Pivot points (classic, using Nov 8 H/L/C)

• P ≈ 586; R1 ≈ 673; R2 ≈ 743; S1 ≈ 517; S2 ≈ 430
• Current price sits above P and below R1. A push through 665–673 unlocks a path toward 690–705 and potentially tests near R2 on volatility expansion. Interpretation: Market is trading the long side of the pivot; R1 is the tactical gate.

11. Pattern recognition

• Daily: Nov 8 printed a long lower-wick hammer-like candle reclaiming key retracement levels; today’s follow-through is a typical bullish continuation pattern if it finishes strong.
• 1h: Coiling range 635–667 resembles a bull flag/pennant after a sharp leg up. Measured move from the pole (approx 570 → 667 = ~97) projects 665 + ~90 = 755 potential in a full extension scenario (stretch target beyond 24h window, immediate resistance at 690–705 first).

12. VWAP and liquidity

• Intraday VWAP (approx) has meandered near the low-640s; price oscillated around it late session, indicating balanced conditions with a slight bullish tilt. A VWAP reclaim/hold into Asia/Europe often precedes a directional push; above VWAP favors long continuation.
• Liquidity: Expect resting offers near 650, 665–670, 700, and heavy liquidity near 736. Bids likely cluster 635, 610, 600, and 580.

13. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• Impulse from late Oct into Nov 7 resembles a wave-3 blow-off; Nov 8 looks like a wave-4 sharp zig-zag; the current advance may be an early wave-5 or a C of an expanded flat. A 24h push to 690–705 fits a moderate wave-5 attempt before larger timeframe mean reversion.

14. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Break-and-hold above 665–670 → test 685–695; potential overshoot to 700–705 if momentum/volume expands.
• Range case (30%): Chop between 620–667, mean-reverting around 640–650 without decisive breakout.
• Bear case (15%): Loss of 635 then 620 → drift to 600–610; deeper wick toward 585–595 possible if broad crypto risk turns.

15. Strategy synthesis and risk framing

• Long bias while >630–635. Best entries are: (a) Pullback buy 632–638 into prior shelf with tight risk under 620–625; or (b) Momentum breakout above 668–672 with confirmation.
• Targeting: First objective 690 (beneath psychological 700 and below pivot R1-extension cluster); extension objective 705–715 if breakout is impulsive.
• Risk: A daily ATR >100 implies swings can be violent; size accordingly. A protective stop (not required in fields but recommended) could sit under 612–615 (below intraday demand and 21/55EMA confluence) for pullback entries; under 635 for breakout entries (post-retest) to keep R:R favorable.

Conclusion

• Trend, structure, reclaim of key fibs, and intraday coil favor an upside resolution. The optimal trade for the next 24 hours is a buy-the-dip or VWAP-reclaim entry around 636 with a tactical target at 690, with optional runners toward 700–705 on strength.