ZEC post-parabola hangover: breakdown below key retracements points to a 450 test within 24 hours

Executive summary and 24h bias:

• Context: ZEC exploded from the mid-40s in August to a Nov 7 peak near 736, followed by a sharp multi-day pullback. Current price 475.87 is well below the 61.8% retracement of the late-Oct to Nov 7 impulse and below short-term moving averages. Intraday action on Nov 11 rejected the pivot zone (~571) and sold hard to test S1 (~465), closing weak.
• 24h outlook: Bearish-to-neutral with rallies likely to be sold. High probability of a probe toward 450–455, with risk of an extension to 435–445 if momentum accelerates. Rebounds into 485–505 face layered resistance.
• Trade idea: Preference to fade bounces (short). Optimal entry on a relief rally toward ~485 (aggressive) or up to 495–505 (ideal add/second chance). First target near 450 where multiple supports converge.

Step-by-step, multi-technique analysis

1. Price action and structure (daily, 4h, 1h)

• Daily closes sequence after the Nov 7 top: 642.8 → 604.1 → 614.1 → 519.4 → 475.9 (today intraday). This is a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows—early-stage daily downtrend developing.
• Intraday (Nov 11): Powerful spike to ~573 at 01:00–02:00 was decisively rejected; price cascaded to ~463 and stabilized around 475–490. The rejection from the mid-570s and failure to reclaim 505–520 show sellers in control on rallies.
• Key structural levels from recent action:
  • Resistance: 500–505 (round + intraday supply), 533–535 (10/5 close/11/5 pivot), 570–573 (intraday spike rejection), 604 (11/8 close), 642 (11/7 close).
  • Support: 463–468 (today’s low/settlement band), 444–450 (confluence band), 405–415 (late Oct breakout region).

2. Moving averages (approximate, daily and intraday bias)

• 5D SMA ≈ 571 (falling). Price well below → near-term momentum bearish.
• 10D SMA ≈ 516 (falling). Price below → confirms short-term downtrend.
• 20D SMA likely in the mid- to high-400s after the surge; price is orbiting it. First-touch bounces possible, but the slope is flattening/rolling → risk that price hugs or rides below it.
• 50D SMA far lower (200s), reflecting the magnitude of the prior run. Longer-term uptrend intact, but irrelevant for a 24h trade given short-term pressure.
• 1h EMAs/SMAs: price under fast EMAs (9/21) for most of the session post-spike; rallies failed at EMA clusters—consistent with sell-the-rip intraday conditions.

3. Momentum oscillators (direction and regime)

• Daily RSI(14): Likely slipped under 50 from prior overbought; momentum now bearish. Room toward 40–35 before classical oversold; suggests more downside potential before a major bounce.
• 1h RSI: Frequently tagged/near oversold on the leg down; minor mean reversion rallies are probable, but trend pressure tends to cap them below 500.
• Stochastic (4h/1h): Cycling up from oversold can fuel a relief bounce into resistance, which is a preferred short entry, particularly near 485–505.
• MACD: Daily histogram rolling over with a sell crossover or very close; 4h/1h MACD firmly negative. This supports a continuation of lower highs over the next 24 hours.

4. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily BBs expanded massively after the parabolic run. Price migrated from upper band to midline and now near/through the lower band. Riding the lower band in a new downtrend is typical; bounces to the mid-band (likely ~520–540) should meet supply.
• 1h BB: Several lower-band tags today with weak mean reversion → trend persistence lower. Expect whipsaws but with a bearish drift.

5. Ichimoku (trend filter)

• Daily: Price still above a thickened cloud due to the prior surge, but Tenkan likely crossed below Kijun and price is under both—early bearish signal within a still-bullish longer cloud context. If price drifts into the cloud (low 400s), volatility can rise further.
• 1h/4h: Price below cloud, Tenkan < Kijun, and cloud overhead thickening—bearish intraday regime. Pullbacks into the cloud (roughly 495–510) are shortable until a clear breakout/hold above.

6. Volume, OBV, and distribution

• Massive distribution days: Nov 7 and Nov 10 printed very high volume with lower closes. Today continued distribution intraday. OBV on shorter frames is trending down, confirming that supply overwhelms demand on rips.
• Volume nodes: Heavy participation in the 500–550 region recently builds a supply shelf overhead. Expect sellers to defend that zone, especially around 505–533.

7. Fibonacci mapping (two key swings)

• Swing A: Oct 24 (~271) → Nov 7 (~736):
  • 38.2%: ~558, 50%: ~504, 61.8%: ~449.
  • Price has broken below the 50% (504) and is gravitating toward 61.8% (~449). This is a classic correction target.
• Swing B: Oct 31 (~351) → Nov 7 (~736):
  • 38.2%: ~589, 50%: ~544, 61.8%: ~499, 78.6%: ~433.
  • Price is below 61.8% (~499) and eyeing the 78.6% (~433). Confluence with the prior mapping’s 61.8% (~449) builds a broad 433–450 demand band.
• Takeaway: The 448–450 level is a magnet; a deeper flush can test 433–440 in a volatility spike.

8. Pivots (classic) and today’s confluence

• Using Nov 10 H/L/C (680.66/517.96/519.37): Pivot P ≈ 572.66, R1 ≈ 627.37, S1 ≈ 464.67. Today’s spike stalled near the pivot (571), then price descended to almost S1 (low 463), validating these levels.
• Using Nov 11 intraday H/L/C (573.50/463.24/475.87) for the next 24h guide:
  • Pivot P ≈ 504.20
  • R1 ≈ 545.17, R2 ≈ 614.46
  • S1 ≈ 434.91, S2 ≈ 393.94
• Implications: Trading below P=504 biases bearish; S1 435 aligns with the Fibonacci and historical support cluster. Expect rallies toward 500 to fade and for price to probe S1 if risk-off persists.

9. ATR and expected range

• Recent daily ranges: 110–160+. An 8–15% daily span is plausible in the current regime. Next 24h probabilistic envelope: ~430–540, with median magnets 450–505.

10. Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• Nov 11 intraday: Long upper wick from ~571 and weak close near lows → bearish continuation signal. Multiple failed attempts to hold 490–500 during US/EU sessions.
• No clean H&S or double-top on the daily; however, the sequence resembles a post-parabolic mean reversion leg with lower highs. The harmonic correction window (0.618–0.786) anchors 449–433.

11. Elliott Wave/harmonic context (heuristic)

• The surge into Nov 7 likely completed a wave-3 type impulse; current corrective wave-4 ABC is working toward the 0.618–0.786 retracement. The c-leg often terminates near 1.0–1.272 of a sub-a leg; those projections also cluster in the 440–455 area. Harmonic “deep crab/bat” style completions often occur near 0.786 (~433)—consistent with the lower end of our demand band.

12. Market profile/VPVR intuition

• The bulk of the recent high-volume activity built between ~500 and ~600. That creates overhead supply. Below 500, the profile thins until the 445–455 composite area, implying faster moves down into that zone and stickier behavior once there.

13. Parabolic SAR and trendlines

• Daily SAR likely flipped above price after the Nov 10 break; 4h SAR overhead continues to trail price lower—trend following sell signals. A downward trendline from Nov 7–9–10 highs intersects near 500–510 tomorrow, adding resistance confluence with the daily pivot.

14. Correlation and regime notes

• Broad crypto beta has been risk-on then correcting; ZEC’s outsized beta magnifies both directions. In a mixed/weak BTC tape, ZEC typically underperforms on downside and overreacts on upside—but current microstructure favors downside spills into supports before any sustainable relief.

15. Scenario analysis for the next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Drift-lower/sideways with failed rallies. Price tests 485–495, stalls, and rolls toward 455–450. Intraday spikes possible but capped under ~505.
• Bear extension (25%): Momentum wash to 440–435 (S1/Swing confluence) if 463 gives way quickly; reflex bounce from there into mid-460s.
• Bull surprise (20%): Strong reclaim above 505 pivot and hold for several hours, extending to 533–545. This would neutralize the short for the day and defer the move to 450.

Integrated conclusion

• There is high confluence for a continuation toward 450 (Fibo 0.618 of the Oct 24–Nov 7 leg; next-day S1; prior daily shelf). Overhead supply is heavy at 485–505 and again at 533. Momentum and trend filters align bearish. Expect mean-reversion bounces to be sold until a clear reclaim/hold above ~505.

Trade plan (short-term, 24h)

• Bias: Sell rallies.
• Entry: Short near 485 (aggressive). If price spikes into 495–505, that is an attractive add/alternate entry zone. If no bounce occurs, consider passing rather than chasing lows.
• Profit target: 450 initial. If momentum accelerates and liquidity is thin, a runner could reach 440–435, but 450 is the higher-probability magnet within 24h.
• Invalidation (risk guideline): Sustained break and hold above 505–510 on 1h closes, or a strong impulsive reclaim of 533, would invalidate the near-term short bias and shift to neutral/bullish for the session.

Probability-weighted price path

• Expected path: 480–495 test → rejection → 458–452 probe → attempt to bounce into close of window. Volatility remains elevated (ATR > 100).

Bottom line: Short into strength near 485 with a take-profit at 450 aligns best with the current technical regime and expected 24h range.