Zcash Reclaims Momentum: Buy the Dip Toward 585 After Capitulation Rebound

Executive summary

• Context: After an extraordinary parabolic advance to 736.5 (Nov 7), ZEC dropped sharply to a capitulation low near 443.0 (Nov 11) and has rebounded to ~530 (Nov 12, 21:58 UTC). Intraday momentum today accelerated, printing 543.3 and closing the hour strong. Structure now shows a corrective bounce within a wider high‑volatility regime.
• 24h Bias: Bullish continuation of the rebound toward 555–590, provided 505–510 support holds. Expect high volatility with sharp, fast rotations.
• Strategy: Buy-the-dip on intraday pullback into 515–520, targeting 585 (first large resistance confluence). If momentum breakout >545 happens before pullback, expect squeeze toward 565–585; however, pullback entry offers better risk/reward.

1. Market structure and price action

• Trend regime (Daily): Clear higher-high/higher-low structure from late September to Nov 7 blow-off top. The subsequent drawdown to 443 retraced ~40%+ from the peak and reset momentum. Current daily candle is a strong green rebound day reclaiming key levels (>20D basis area), suggesting a B-wave/mean-reversion bounce underway.
• Intraday (Hourly): Today’s session transitioned from base-building (450–480) into an impulsive leg (488 → 527 → 535), with a bull flag break around 20:00–21:00 UTC. The intraday high 543.3 marks the first serious supply test; a brief consolidation just below it is constructive.
• Key levels from the tape:
  • Support: 505–510 (intraday shelf/VWAP region), 480–485 (prior consolidation), 455 (breakout origin), 443 (capitulation low).
  • Resistance: 543–548 (today’s high + Nov 6 supply zone), 565–590 (Fibo/Ichimoku/cluster), 620–625 (pivot R2 / 61.8% retrace from the crash leg), 680–700 (heavy supply overhang).

2. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (Daily) inference: After reaching extreme >80 during the blow-off, the crash likely reset RSI toward low-40s; today’s bounce likely lifted it into mid‑50s. This is a constructive, non-overbought recovery with room to run toward 60–65 before resistance.
• RSI (1H): Momentum expanded into the 60–70 zone during the breakout leg, consistent with a healthy impulsive move. Short-term overbought conditions can cause shallow pullbacks but typically resolve higher while trend persists.
• MACD (Daily): Histogram likely negative but contracting; signal line crossover risk was realized on the drop, and today’s thrust begins a positive inflection. This supports a 1–3 day rebound sequence.
• MACD (1H): Bullish crossover active; rising histogram aligns with continuation attempts after minor consolidations.
• Stochastics (1H): Near upper band; expect minor cooling/pullback that favors a buy-the-dip entry.

3. Trend indicators and moving averages

• 20D SMA/Basis (approx): ~430. Price at 530 > 20D SMA, signaling re-acceleration back above the mean after capitulation.
• 50D SMA: Rising steeply and well below spot (likely ~200–250 given the multi-week surge). Long-term trend remains up.
• 1H EMAs (20/50): Price is above both, with the 20>50 configuration reestablished—classic short-term bullish alignment.
• ADX (Daily): Elevated after the parabolic move; D- dominated during the crash, but today’s DI+ resurgence with a still-elevated ADX suggests trend strength remains high, with direction flipping back to bulls near-term.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (Daily): Massive expansion on the run-up; price retraced to mid/ lower bands, then reclaimed the middle band (near the 20D). This supports a push toward the upper half of the envelope (roughly 580–620), pending resistance.
• ATR (10–14D) inference: Very high (dozens to 100+ points per day). Expect 8–15% intraday swings; position sizing should reflect this.

5. Ichimoku framework

• Daily:
  • Tenkan-sen (9-period midpoint) approx: (High 736 + Low 443)/2 ≈ 589.5.
  • Kijun-sen (26-period midpoint) approx: ~470–475 (given recent 26-day high/low band).
  • Spot 530 > Kijun → bullish bias; Spot < Tenkan → room for a mean-revert climb toward ~590 (acts as near-term magnet/resistance).
• 1H: Price is above cloud with bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross earlier today—supports buy-the-dip logic while above 505–510.

6. Fibonacci mapping (swing-high 736.5 → swing-low 443.0)

• Range: 293.0. Retracement levels from the low:
  • 38.2%: 555.0
  • 50%: 589.5
  • 61.8%: 624.1
• Current 530 is below 38.2% retrace; bounces commonly extend at least to 38.2%–50% if momentum holds. Thus 555–590 is a logical 24–48h target zone.

7. Classical pivots (derived from Nov 11 H/L/C: 575.9/443.0/443.1)

• Pivot P ≈ 487.3; R1 ≈ 531.7; R2 ≈ 620.2; S1 ≈ 398.8.
• Price sits around R1; acceptance above R1 opens path to R2 (~620). First, expect a test of 545–555 and then 565–590.

8. Volume and flow

• Volume climax: The surge to 736 and subsequent dump printed multi-session volume spikes (Nov 7–11). Today’s intraday ramp shows renewed participation, especially 20:00–21:00 UTC hours.
• Volume profile (recent window):
  • High-volume node: 440–480 (capitulation and basing). Acts as strong demand on pullbacks.
  • Low-volume pocket: 520–560. Today’s quick traverse hints at potential fast continuation toward 555–565 if sellers don’t reassert.
• OBV/MFI inference: Both turning up with today’s push; confirms accumulation on the rebound.

9. Candles and patterns

• Daily: Nov 11 printed a large red near the low (capitulation). Today’s strong green candle reclaiming the prior breakdown area resembles a bullish engulf/impulse day from a panic low.
• 1H: Breakout candle at 20:00 UTC (488 → 527) with follow-through. Now consolidating just under 543—typically constructive for another leg higher after a shallow pullback.

10. Scenario planning (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Intraday dip to 515–520 holds; price rotates higher to 555–585, potentially tagging the 38.2%–50% retrace and Ichimoku Tenkan near 590.
• Bull case (25%): Momentum negates dip, clean break >545–548 triggers squeeze into 565–590 today; if volume persists, extension toward 605–620 (pivot R2 / 61.8% fib cluster) is possible but less likely in 24h.
• Bear case (15%): Failure to hold 505–510 leads to deeper retest 485–495; loss of 480 risks a run back toward 455–460. This would postpone the rebound structure.

11. Risk management and execution

• Entry tactics: Prefer limit buy on pullback 515–520 to capture better R:R. Alternative breakout buy above 548 with tighter trailing logic.
• Stop (not part of order fields, but recommended): 498–500 (below intraday supports and psychological round figure). Risk ~18–22 points vs. 65–70 points to target 585 → R:R ≈ 1:3+.
• Position sizing: Scale for elevated ATR; partial profit-taking near 555, run core to 585.

Bottom line

• Momentum has flipped intraday, daily is mean-reverting from capitulation, and multiple toolkits (Fibonacci, Ichimoku, pivots, EMAs, volume profile) cluster around 555–590 as the next upside magnet. The highest-probability, best R:R approach is Buy-the-dip near 515–520, targeting 585 over the next 24 hours, while respecting 498–505 as invalidation below the current structure.