Zcash poised for a 24h VWAP-bounce breakout toward the low 540s

ZEC multi-timeframe technical deep-dive (next 24h outlook)

1. Market regime and structure

• Regime: Since late September, ZEC has transitioned from a low-volatility base (~$35–$45) into a parabolic advance peaking near $736 on Nov 7, followed by a sharp corrective phase that found support near the 61.8% retracement of the October–November impulse. The current regime is high-volatility trend with corrective chop and large intraday swings.
• Structure (daily): After the peak, price retraced to the $426–$462 zone (Nov 11–12), then printed a strong bullish reversal candle on Nov 12 and is now stabilizing around $500–510. The prior two sessions suggest an ABC correction may have completed around $443 (C-wave low) with a higher-timeframe uptrend intact.
• Structure (hourly): On Nov 13, price made an intraday low ~471.6 (17:00), then rallied back above 500 and is consolidating 505–510. The sequence now shows rising lows (471.6 → ~485.7 → ~499) and capped highs ~517–525, forming a developing bull flag/ascending structure.

2. Key levels and confluence

• Daily swing fibs (Oct surge): Using swing low 292 (Oct 12) to swing high 736 (Nov 7): • 38.2%: ~563 • 50%: ~514 • 61.8%: ~462 Price rebounded between the 50–61.8% cluster (462–514), a classic corrective completion zone.
• Intraday fibs (Nov 13 session): High 524.99 to low 471.56 → 61.8% retrace ≈ 509.2 (current area), 78.6% ≈ 518. A sustained reclaim of 518 opens 525, then 538–545 (Fib ext cluster).
• Pivots (based on Nov 12 H/L/C ≈ 543.44/426.83/507.01): • Pivot P ≈ 492.4 • R1 ≈ 558.0, R2 ≈ 609.0 • S1 ≈ 441.4, S2 ≈ 375.8 Current price sits above P (bullish intraday bias), well away from S1. R1 is a stretch for 24h, but sub-R1 objectives (535–545) are feasible within current ATR.
• Horizontal S/R: • Supports: 471–485 (hourly low cluster), 492–500 (pivot/micro-VWAP zone), 462 (61.8% daily fib), 443 (swing reaction low) • Resistances: 517–520 (hourly supply), 524–525 (session high), 533–548 (Nov 6–7 supply), 558 (R1)
• Volume/POC: Heavy trading around 500–505 today, indicating a local point of control/value area; acceptance above this zone typically favors upside tests of upper nodes (518/525, then low 540s).

3. Momentum and trend indicators

• Moving averages (daily, approximated): • 20D SMA rising sharply and likely in the 380–420 zone; price is above → bullish intermediate trend. • 50D SMA ~200–250 and rising; strong positive slope indicates primary uptrend intact. • 200D SMA ~60–70; price far above; long-term bull regime. • Daily price above 20/50/200D MAs → structural uptrend persists despite correction.
• EMAs (hourly): 8/21 EMA likely crossed up post-471 low; price has been oscillating but holding above the 21 EMA into the US evening, a constructive short-term sign.
• RSI: • Daily RSI likely cooled from overbought (>70) to mid-50s/low-60s after the pullback; plenty of room for a fresh push. • Hourly RSI rebounded from oversold near the 471 low and is grinding mid-50s; a break above 60–65 on a move through 518 would confirm momentum continuation.
• MACD: • Daily MACD still positive but compressed after correction; histogram stabilizing, room for a bullish re-expansion. • Hourly MACD crossed up off the 471 low; modest positive slope consistent with a developing bull flag resolution higher.
• Stochastic oscillators: Hourly stochs cycled out of oversold; as long as pullbacks hold above ~498–500, bull momentum can persist.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR (daily): Expanded materially during the parabolic phase; current daily ATR likely in the 90–150 range. A 24h swing of +30 to +50 is very plausible from 508.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): After expansion, the midline (20SMA) is below spot; price near the middle-upper band range. There’s room to travel toward the upper band area on any breakout sequence.
• Bollinger Bands (hourly): Squeezing slightly post-rebound; a volatility expansion above 518 would favor a measured push into the low-540s.

5. Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price decisively above cloud; Tenkan > Kijun bias likely still positive or on the verge after the correction; bullish regime.
• Hourly: Price has reclaimed/hovered around the Tenkan/Kijun cluster (~503–507). A fresh Tenkan cross above Kijun with price above cloud on a 518 break would add confirmation; Chikou is close to clearing recent price, another constructive signal if we expand.

6. Price patterns

• Daily candlesticks: • Nov 11: capitulation-style down day into the 440s. • Nov 12: strong bullish reversal (engulfing-type behavior versus Nov 11’s body) closing back above 500 → classic reversal follow-through potential.
• Hourly: • Bull flag/ascending channel forming: higher lows (471 → 486 → ~499) under horizontal cap 517–525. • Measured move: Flag pole from ~476.8 to ~517.9 ≈ 41.1. Conservative 0.618 extension adds ≈ 25.4 to 518 → ≈ 543.3 target, aligning with multi-tool confluence.

7. Volume and flows

• OBV/Volume profile: Rallies have generally occurred on heavier volume versus dips, consistent with accumulation. Today’s strongest hourly up bar (19:00) carried notable volume, supporting demand near 499–505.
• MFI/CMF context: Post-liquidity sweep into the 470s, money flow has improved intraday, suggesting bid support into dips.

8. DeMark/Deviations and mean reversion

• After a rapid drawdown to 443–462 (akin to a completed 9-count buy setup), the bounce and stabilization above the daily pivot favor a relief leg rather than immediate second-leg down. Mean reversion from sub-pivot to above-pivot often carries to the next supply shelf (518–525), with stretch potential to the next band (538–545) in high ATR environments.

9. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• The surge to 736 resembles a completed 5-wave impulsive structure. The drawdown to ~443–462 looks like an ABC corrective wave. With that correction likely completed or near-completed, the current move can be counted as Wave 1/2 of a new impulse on lower degree; a break above 525 would suggest Wave 3 of this smaller degree toward 540s in the next 24h.

10. VWAP and intraday execution

• Session VWAP has hovered in the low 500s; price reclaim and hold above VWAP after the 471 sweep is bullish for continuation. Optimal entries typically come on pullbacks into the VWAP/POC area (499–502) with confirmation of higher lows.

11. Risk management and scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (60%): Consolidate 500–510 early, shallow pullback to 498–502, then push through 518, test 524–525, and extend to 538–545 where supply appears. Intraday target zone: 540–545.
• Bull case (25%): Strong momentum carry through 525 with volume expansion; quick tag of 545 and possible extension to 552–558 (R1). Requires broad market tailwind and sustained bid.
• Bear case (15%): Failure at 517–520, breakdown below 500 and 492 pivot, re-test 485 then 471–474. A daily close under 485 would negate the bounce and reopen 462/443. Not base case given current structure and pivot reclaim.

12. Synthesis and trade thesis

• Confluences for upside: • Bounce off the 50–61.8% daily retracement cluster with a bullish daily reversal candle. • Above daily pivot (492.4) and reclaim of session VWAP. • Hourly higher lows and emerging bull flag below 517–525 resistance. • Momentum indicators turning up on the hourly, with daily momentum reset (room to run). • Measured move/fib extension confluence around 542–545 aligns with next objective.
• Therefore, probability favors a constructive 24h with an optimal buy-the-dip entry near 499–501 aiming for a 540s take-profit. A protective stop (not part of the requested fields) would typically sit below 485 (structure) or more tightly below 497 depending on risk tolerance.

13. Execution plan (tactical)

• Entry: Limit buy on a controlled pullback into 499–501 (POC/VWAP/pivot-ladder support). If no pullback, a momentum add-on trigger sits above 518 with strong tape, but the primary optimal level is the dip entry.
• Take-profit: 542–545, aligning with 0.618 flag extension and overhead supply shelf. This is achievable within one ATR day.
• Contingency: If price loses 500 and especially 492 (daily pivot), de-risk; a move under 485 warns of a deeper revisit to 471.

Outlook (next 24 hours): Mildly bullish. Expect a dip into 499–501 that holds, then a push to 518/525 and a measured grind toward 540–545 if momentum confirms. Probability-weighted path supports a Buy. Not financial advice; manage risk according to your plan.