Zcash Coils Below 600: Triangle Pressure Builds Toward the 0.618 Fib at 624

Step-by-step multi-method technical analysis for ZEC over the next 24 hours

1. Market structure, trend, and price action

• Higher time frame (daily): After a blow‑off top on Nov 7 (H ≈ 736) and a sharp two-day liquidation to Nov 11 (L ≈ 443), ZEC printed a V-shaped recovery with consecutive higher closes (Nov 12 ≈ 507, Nov 13 ≈ 521, today ≈ 578 intraday). Structure has shifted to bullish: higher low at 443 → 485 (today’s 04:00 wick) and higher highs into 596 today.
• Intraday (hourly): Today’s session shows a deep liquidity sweep to 488.8 at 04:00 followed by persistent bid absorption and a trend up to 595.9, then consolidation 575–590. This intraday base-building above former resistance zones supports a constructive short-term uptrend.
• Key levels from recent structure: • Resistance: 596–600 (today’s intraday high cluster), 606–607 (R3 pivot), 624–625 (0.618 retrace of 736→443), 668–675 (0.786 retrace / prior swing zone), 736 ATH of the leg. • Support: 569–570 (R2 pivot), 555–560 (0.382 retrace of 736→443 and volume node), 548–550 (Nov 6 high, now potential support), 533–535 (Nov 6 close / composite shelf), 520–521 (recent daily close), 488–490 (liquidity pivot from the 04:00 sweep).

2. Fibonacci mapping (anchor: 736.5 high → 443.1 low)

• 0.382 = ~555.1: already acted as intraday support cluster.
• 0.5 = ~589.7: price tagged 595–596 and was rejected; this zone is acting as resistance band.
• 0.618 = ~624.3: next upside magnet on a clean breakout over 596–600.
• 0.786 = ~673.8: aligns with Nov 9 high region (668–680), a strong upside target if momentum accelerates. Implication: Current consolidation just under the 0.5 retrace is classic for a continuation push toward the 0.618.

3. Pivot points (classic) using Nov 13 H/L/C ≈ 532.66/471.39/521.02

• P ≈ 508.36; R1 ≈ 545.32; R2 ≈ 569.63; R3 ≈ 606.59; S1 ≈ 484.05; S2 ≈ 447.09.
• Today has traded firmly above R2 and stalled beneath R3—typical bullish trending day behavior. A late-session or next-session magnet effect toward R3 ≈ 606.6 is probable if 569–575 holds as intraday support.

4. Moving averages (inferred)

• Short MAs (5–10 day EMA) are rising and likely cluster around 545–560 given the last week’s prices; price is sustained above them—bullish.
• 20-day basis (also the Bollinger mid-band proxy) likely near 510–530; price reclaim above it adds confirmation of trend resumption.
• 50-day SMA likely far lower (≈ 250–300) due to October levels; price remains extended but momentum-driven. Implication: Momentum regime intact; mean-reversion risk exists but supports are packed below (555/545/533/520).

5. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (qualitative estimate): rebounded from oversold near Nov 11; now likely mid‑60s. No clear bearish divergence on daily versus price since the latest higher high is intraday; room remains to test 600–625 before daily overbought extremes.
• Hourly RSI: peaked during push to 595–596, cooled during 575–585 coil; back in neutral-to-bullish range, allowing another attempt higher without immediate overbought constraints.
• MACD (daily): Histogram likely turning positive with signal cross looming/occurring following three green closes; supports further upside follow-through.
• Stochastic (intraday): Reset from overbought during sideways coil; primed for another attempt higher if support holds.

6. Bollinger Bands (daily, inferred)

• Bands are very wide (post-volatility expansion). Price migrated from lower band (443) toward upper band; currently consolidating just under the perceived upper band zone (near 630–650). Typical behavior is band walk continuation until momentum fades; a push over 600 would likely re-engage the upper band.

7. Ichimoku (daily, approximated)

• Price above cloud; bullish regime.
• Tenkan-sen (9-period mid of HH/LL): with HH ~736 and LL ~443, Tenkan ~589; price is coiling just below/around Tenkan—break and close above Tenkan would validate near-term momentum to 606–625.
• Kijun-sen (26-period mid) likely ~460–480; price well above Kijun—a strong trend condition. Pullbacks toward Kijun are unlikely within 24h unless a shock move occurs.
• Chikou span should be above price, supporting trend. Implication: A Tenkan reclaim (≈ 589) is a tactical trigger toward R3 and 0.618.

8. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Volume has been robust through the recovery. Today’s surge during the 12:00–15:00 hours, followed by balanced consolidation, suggests healthy participation rather than exhaustion.
• OBV (inferred): rising over the last three sessions; no distribution signature evident on the hourly coil.
• Volume nodes: 555–560 shows as a likely high-traffic node; 520–535 as secondary. Acceptance above 570 shifts value higher, enabling attempts at 600+.

9. Volatility and ATR

• Daily ATR(14) (inferred) elevated, roughly 100–120 given recent ranges. Intraday range today ≈ 596–485 = 111—consistent with a high-vol regime.
• High ATR favors trend continuation days and frequent stop hunts; expect wicks into 565–570 and 555–560 if liquidity is thin before a move.

10. VWAP and intraday posture

• Session anchored VWAP (approx, given open near 521) sits well below spot; price holding above VWAP the entire US afternoon supports a buy-the-dip bias as long as 569–575 holds.

11. Candlestick and pattern analysis

• Daily: Three-candle sequence from Nov 12 shows rising closes—bullish continuation posture.
• Hourly: Ascending triangle/coil between 569 base and 596 lid. Height ≈ 27–30. A measured move breakout projects 596 + 27 ≈ 623—near the 0.618 (624.3) and under R3 extension path to ~606→625 confluence.
• 04:00 hour long lower shadow (to 488.8) followed by swift reclaim indicates aggressive dip absorption; often a spring-like signature ahead of further markup.

12. Elliott Wave (tactical sketch)

• From the 443 low: impulsive Wave 1 to ~543, shallow Wave 2 pullback, accelerating Wave 3 leg into 596, micro Wave 4 coil 575–585, setting up Wave 5 probe into 606–625 zone. If realized, the 0.618 retrace aligns with a Wave 5 termination candidate before a larger corrective pause.

13. Wyckoff lens

• The Nov 11 print resembles a Spring/Shakeout below prior range. Today’s session shows signs of Sign of Strength (SOS) intraday with a Back-Up/Last Point of Support (LPS) around 569–575. Continuation toward 600–625 fits a markup phase.

14. Liquidity map and stop-hunt considerations

• Untapped liquidity above 596–600 (prior session high cluster) likely to be targeted. Secondary liquidity sits around 606–607 (R3). If swept, the 624–625 0.618 pocket is the next logical magnet.
• Downside liquidity pockets: 569 shelf, then 555–560 (0.382). A deeper sweep could reach 548–550, but that would typically require a risk-off flush; probability lower in the next 24h barring headlines.

15. Probabilistic 24-hour forecast

• Bull scenario (≈60%): Hold 569–575, break 596–600, test 606–607 (R3), extend into 620–625 (0.618). Close near 605–620.
• Base-range scenario (≈30%): Whipsaw between 555–560 and 596, no decisive break; close near 575–590.
• Bear scenario (≈10%): Lose 555 decisively, slide to 548–550 or 533–535; recovery uncertain; close sub-560.

16. Synthesis across tools

• Trend-following signals (MAs, Ichimoku, MACD) support upside continuation.
• Momentum/oscillators reset intraday, allowing another extension.
• Pattern analysis (ascending triangle) and measured move converge at 620–625; Fibonacci 0.618 at ~624.3 strengthens the target confluence.
• Pivots frame the path: price above R2 with R3 ≈ 606.6 as the next waypoint.
• Volume/OBV favor accumulation rather than distribution at current levels. Overall: Bias is Buy-the-dip with a tactical target into 606→624. Pullbacks to 568–571 or 555–560 are attractive entries. Breakout buys over 600 also valid, but dip entries offer better risk-adjusted reward.

17. Trade plan (next 24 hours)

• Direction: Long.
• Optimal entry: Buy limit around 568.8 (retest of R2/coil base). Alternative/add: 555–560 if offered.
• Primary take-profit: 624.3 (0.618 retracement confluence; near measured move objective).
• Invalidation (stop idea, not executed here): Below 548 on a closing basis intraday, or hard stop 545 to protect against a momentum failure. This keeps R multiple favorable (+55 vs ~−24 from 568.8).

Conclusion: Expect ZEC to probe 596–600, with a high chance of extension to 606–607 and 620–625 within 24 hours if 569–575 support holds. The optimal plan is to Buy a controlled dip; breakout adds can be considered on strong volume above 600.