ZEC coiling beneath breakout: 78.6% Fib reclaimed and eyes on 720–736 retest

Executive summary

• Bias for next 24 hours: Moderately bullish, with a buy-the-dip approach favored while ZEC holds above 658–662 support and especially above 645. A breakout continuation is likely on a sustained move through 691 and 705, with a high-probability retest of 720–736.
• Optimal plan: Enter on a pullback toward 665–667 (prior resistance turned support, near hourly moving averages and VWAP zone). First upside magnet 705, then 720–736. Invalidation if 645 fails on a closing basis.

Multi-timeframe market structure

• Daily: Parabolic advance from sub-60 to >700 followed by a sharp corrective low around 443 (11/11) and a strong V-shaped recovery closing 603 (11/14) and trading 681 currently (11/15). Structure shows a series of higher lows since 11/11 (443 → 519 → 603 → 639/645), indicating re-accumulation after a volatility purge.
• 4h/1h: From 11/15 00:00, price ramped 644 → 716/723, retraced to 639–645, then established higher lows: 645 → 653 → 662 → 658 → 678. This is an ascending channel/flag structure under prior supply 716–723. Local trend remains up while above 658.

Key levels and confluences

• Major swing range: 11/07 high 736.5 to 11/11 low 443.0 (range ≈ 293.5).
  • Fibonacci retracements (from low to high):
    • 61.8% = 628.9, 78.6% = 674.6. Price is holding above 674–675, signaling strong recovery; clearing 78.6% often precedes a full retest of the prior high.
• Recovery leg: 11/10 close 519 → 11/15 high 723 (range ≈ 204).
  • Pullback Fibs from 723: 38.2% ≈ 645, 50% ≈ 621, 61.8% ≈ 597. The 11/15 low cluster 639–645 aligns with 38.2% → constructive, shallow retrace.
• Classic daily pivot levels (derived from 11/14 H/L/C: 609.98/484.91/603.52):
  • P ≈ 566.1, R1 ≈ 647.3, R2 ≈ 691.2, R3 ≈ 772.4, S1 ≈ 522.3.
  • Today traded primarily between R1 and R2; repeated probes of R2 (~691) suggest pressure building for a break.
• Supply/resistance: 691 (pivot R2), 705 (intraday shelf), 716–723 (intraday highs and weekly supply), 736–740 (prior spike high + round-number overshoot).
• Demand/support: 675 (78.6% Fib), 666–667 (intraday support shelf, prior resistance flip), 658–662 (hourly HL zone), 645 (38.2% pullback of 723 leg and yesterday’s value area low), 621 and 597 (deeper retrace Fibs, only if momentum fails).

Trend and moving averages (hourly approximations)

• Price trades above the 20-EMA (~670) and 50-SMA (~650). Slopes are positive. Pullbacks to the 20-EMA have been bid. This supports a dip-entry strategy near 665–670.

Momentum

• RSI (1h, est): Mid-to-high 50s to low 60s after cooling from the morning spike; not overbought → room to expand on a breakout.
• Stochastic (1h, est): Resetting from overbought during the midday pullback and curling higher—typical for continuation after a shallow retracement.
• MACD (1h, est): Signal line above zero with histogram contracting then re-expanding after the 10:00 dip. Bias is toward a positive cross expansion if 691 breaks.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(1h) expanded materially during the 00:00–06:00 surge; current hourly ranges are 15–35 with occasional 40–60 spikes. Expect 650–725 daily envelope unless a breakout leg extends.
• Bollinger Bands (1h, est): Price near mid-to-upper band after mean reversion off 639–645; bandwidth remains wide, consistent with trend-vol regime rather than a squeeze. Upper band crawl is possible on a breakout.

Volume/flow

• Large participation on the upthrust candles (~00:00–06:00) and into the 21:00 pickup; dip candles around 10:00 had decent range but lacked capitulation volume at lows, hinting absorption rather than distribution.
• OBV (heuristic): Recovered with price since 10:00, suggesting accumulation. Note: Some hourly volume prints appear as 0 (data gap), so exact OBV/VWAP is approximated.

VWAP and intraday execution

• Session VWAP (approx.): Mid-to-high 670s given the heavy early prints around 690–705 and subsequent trading 660–680. The 665–670 zone is a high-probability mean-revert buy area within an uptrend.

Pattern recognition

• Bull flag/ascending channel: Higher lows into flat-to-lower highs under 716–723 forms a bull flag/ascending triangle hybrid. Repeated tests of overhead supply typically weaken it.
• Cup-and-handle micro-structure: 603 → 716 cup, handle down to 639–645, reclaim to 687–691. A handle breakout projects toward prior highs.

Elliott wave (heuristic)

• From 519, impulsive waves likely carried to 723 (wave 3), shallow wave 4 to 639–645, and a developing wave 5 toward 736–760. Failure below 645 invalidates the shallow wave-4 thesis.

Liquidity and stop-hunt considerations

• Liquidity pockets: Resting stops above 705 and 716–723; break above 723 likely fuels a momentum run into 736–745. On the downside, liquidity rests under 662 and clustered near 645; a quick sweep to 645 that instantly reclaims 660 would be a strong long signal.

Scenario map (next 24 hours)

• Bullish base case (≈60%): Hold 665–670, push through 691, grind to 705, then impulse to 720–736. Extension targets on strong breadth: 748, 760.
• Range/whipsaw case (≈25%): Chop 658–691 as liquidity builds; buy-the-dip remains valid above 645; patience required.
• Bearish risk case (≈15%): Lose 658 and 645 on momentum; slide to 621 (50% pullback of 723 leg) with volatility spike. Recovery above 658 would be needed to repair the damage.

Risk management and execution plan

• Primary entry: Limit buy 666–667 (confluence: EMA20, intraday shelf, near 78.6% major Fib reclaim). If not filled, optional breakout add is a stop-market at 692–693 on a 15–60 min close above 691 with rising volume.
• Initial target: 705 (partial), main target 735 (a hair below prior 736 high to front-run supply). Stretch: 748–760 on squeeze.
• Invalidation/stop: 642 (below the 645 confluence and below recent value), or dynamic stop under the most recent higher low if using a trailing method. From 666 to 642 risk ≈ $24; to 735 reward ≈ $69 → R:R ≈ 2.9:1.
• Position sizing: Size so a stop at 642 risks no more than a pre-defined account % (e.g., 0.5–1%).

Why buy vs sell

• Price is above key MAs, has reclaimed the 78.6% major Fib, and is compressing under overhead supply with improving momentum—conditions favor continuation rather than immediate reversal. Shorting into 665–675 has asymmetric risk because a modest volume expansion could trigger a fast run to prior highs.

Catalyst-agnostic guardrails

• If a fast move tags 723–736 and stalls with a bearish divergence on 5–15m momentum and rising delta absorption, consider taking profits proactively near 728–735 rather than aiming for extension.
• If an adverse move under 658 occurs without immediate reclaim, tighten risk; if 645 breaks on a closing basis, stand aside and reassess at 621/597 Fibs.

Important note

• This is a high-volatility environment; slippage can be significant. Use limit orders for dip entries, consider split orders (laddering 667/660/652), and avoid excessive leverage. This is informational analysis, not financial advice. Always align with your own risk tolerance and plan.