Zcash poised for a wave-5 push: buy the 50–61.8% pullback for a magnet to 705–720

Summary and regime check

• Instrument: Zcash (ZEC), USD quoted
• Current price: 672.85
• Timeframes analyzed: Daily (Aug 19–Nov 16) and Hourly (Nov 15–16)
• Market regime: Strong bullish primary trend since late Oct, currently in high-volatility consolidation after retesting the Nov 7 high zone (~735–736). Bias: buy-the-dip while 654–660 holds.

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily structure: Explosive markup from ~74 (Oct 1) to ~736 (Nov 7), followed by a sharp corrective flush to ~443 (Nov 11), then a V-shaped recovery back into the 600–700s. The last two daily closes: 603.52 → 671.90 → 672.85 show higher closes and re-acceptance above 600/650.
• Hourly structure (Nov 16): Wide intraday range 654–736. After making a session high near 735.7, price mean-reverted to the 61.8–50% retracement band of the 604→736 leg (see Fibonacci). Multiple stabilizations around 670 with quick rejections below 660–655 (demand showing up). Lower wicks at 654–658 indicate dip absorption.
• Key S/R levels (confluence):
  • 736–740: Resistance/previous swing high (double-top risk, breakout fuel above).
  • 720–727: Lower high cluster and intraday supply; breakout gateway to re-test 735.
  • 705–706: 23.6% retracement reference from the 604→736 leg and intraday pivot.
  • 695–700: High-volume acceptance/POC-like magnet from today’s rotation; frequent re-tests.
  • 683–686: Intraday Tenkan/VWAP zone (see below); minor pivot.
  • 670–671: 50% retracement of 604→736 and intraday floor retests; pivotal support.
  • 654–655: 61.8% retracement and session low area; must-hold for bullish thesis on 24h horizon.

2. Trend diagnostics (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Strongly up. Price trades well above the rising 50D and 200D averages (estimates: 50D ~220–260, 200D far below due to the long base), confirming secular bullish momentum.
• 20D mean (middle Bollinger): Likely ~500–540; price above it → bull control, albeit extended.
• Hourly trend: Sideways-to-slightly-down rotation within a broader uptrend, typical post-expansion consolidation.

3. Moving averages (MA/EMA) and crossovers

• Daily: Fast EMAs are stacked above slow MAs (bullish). No evidence of bearish crossovers.
• Hourly: Price oscillating around short EMAs; reclaim attempts over the 20/50-EMA clusters have been frequent. Expect magnetism to the 695–705 zone where short MAs have converged in the session.

4. Momentum indicators

• RSI (Daily, est.): Upper 50s–mid 60s after cooling from overbought → bullish range regime (40–90) with room to push. No hard daily bearish divergence at current print, given higher closes vs the big early-Nov high.
• RSI (Hourly, est.): Mid-range (45–55) after the pullback; supports a near-term bounce toward equilibrium (695–705).
• MACD (Daily): Positive and above zero; histogram has compressed post-spike (normal consolidation). No confirmed bearish cross.
• MACD (Hourly): Histogram flipping around zero; a cross back up on reclaim of 695–705 would confirm a momentum resumption.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR: Expanded substantially during the markup. Current daily ATR is large; 24h swings of 8–15% are possible.
• Bollinger Bands (Daily): Wide expansion; price inside upper half—constructive. Not at the outer band → room for another push after consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands (Hourly): Price rotated from upper to lower band and is now basing near the lower/middle band; statistical mean reversion favors a drift toward the middle/upper band (~695–710) if 654–670 holds.
• Keltner/Bollinger squeeze read: Expansion phase ongoing but currently pausing; compression on hourly suggests buildup for next impulse.

6. Fibonacci mapping (precision on the last leg)

• Leg considered: 604 (Nov 14 low) → 736 (Nov 16 high).
• Key retracements:
  • 38.2%: ~686 → repeatedly traded; acts as intraday pivot.
  • 50%: ~670 → currently defended multiple times.
  • 61.8%: ~654 → session low cluster; strong support. A clean break/retest below would open 635–620 quickly.
• Implications: Holding 50–61.8% is typical for a wave-4 style pullback; sets up a wave-5 attempt toward 720–740 if momentum reignites.

7. Ichimoku (heuristic, hourly)

• Price oscillating around Tenkan (~683–686) and below Kijun (~690–695) earlier in session; a reclaim/close above 695 would likely flip momentum long, with Senkou Span A/B projecting initial resistance around 705–710. Chikou span has room if price clears 700.

8. Elliott wave framing (contextual)

• Wave 3 likely printed on the explosive run to ~736; the drop to ~654 intraday reads as a wave 4 correction off the 604→736 push, with 50–61.8% retracement respected. Probability of a wave 5 probe toward 720–740 in the next 24h rises if 670 holds and 705–710 is reclaimed on volume.

9. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Volume profile (session): Heavy rotation near 695–705 indicates acceptance; price tends to revisit this node. Low-volume nodes around 665–670 and 708–712 can produce quick moves once breached.
• OBV (qualitative): Uptrend from early November remains intact; no material distribution footprint today—more rotational.
• Notable: Some hourly prints show zero volume (data gaps). Where volume is reported (e.g., 09:00, 15:00–19:00), pullbacks drew participation but did not break 654—buyers stepped in.

10. VWAP and intraday mean reversion

• Hourly session VWAP proxy sits near 690 ±; price below VWAP tends to revert in balanced sessions. Expect gravity toward 690–700 if 670 support sustains the next few hours.

11. Pattern recognition

• Double-top risk at ~736: True, but invalidation requires a breakdown through 654 then 635. Until then, the pattern is unconfirmed; the market is consolidating beneath resistance, not rejecting violently.
• Bull flag / ascending triangle potential on intraday: A series of higher lows above 654 with a flat-to-lower resistance near 705–712. Break above 712 eyes 720–736 quickly.
• Candlestick hints: Multiple lower-wick hours near 668–672 show dip absorption; 18:00–21:00 formed a mild hammer-like basing structure.

12. DeMark/TD (qualitative)

• The prior daily advance likely completed a 9-count earlier this month; today looks like recycling in the count with consolidation, not a fresh exhaustion. Bullish continuation setups post-recycle are common if support holds.

13. Probabilistic 24h scenarios

• Base case (55%): Hold 670–654, rotate up into 695–705, attempt breakout of 705–712. Target 710–720; stretch to 725 if momentum/volume expand.
• Bull extension (25%): Clean reclaim of 712 early, swift test of 725–736. If 736 breaks, overshoot to 745–760 possible on stop runs.
• Bear risk (20%): Lose 670, then 654 on momentum; slide to 635–620 where next demand resides. Would convert setup to wait-and-see or flip short only under 635 with acceptance.

14. Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip inside 50–61.8% Fibonacci cluster with mean-reversion and potential trend resumption.
• Entry (limit buy): 666.9–668.5 zone to get filled on minor liquidity sweeps under 670.
• Validation trigger: Reclaim and hold above 683–686, then 695–705.
• Profit target (24h): Conservative TP near 705–706 (mid/upper band + session POC magnet + 23.6% fib). Aggressive extension 720–725 if momentum is strong (not used as the single numeric TP field, but noted).
• Invalidation/stop (discipline): 651.8–653.5 close below on the hourly (clean break of 61.8% and session low) negates the long. Risk about 2.0–2.3% from entry; reward to 705 is ~5.5–6.0%.
• Optional add-on: Add on confirmed breakout above 712 with tight stop back inside 705; target 725–736.

Why not short here?

• The primary trend is up; we are basing above a major 50–61.8% retracement. Shorting into support risks being steamrolled by a resumption move. A short makes sense only on a decisive loss of 654 with acceptance below.

Risk notes

• Weekend/crypto liquidity can produce stop hunts and long wicks—use hard stops and size down.
• Data gaps in volume prints suggest caution; rely on price structure first.
• Nothing here is guaranteed; this is a probability-weighted plan subject to invalidation.

24h outlook

• Expect choppy advance with upward drift: retest 683–686, magnet to 695–705, with a reasonable shot to probe 710–720 if 705–712 clears on rising volume. Downside invalidation is a clean hourly close below 654–655.