Zcash at the Springboard: Buying the 680 Pullback for a Run at 735–740

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Bullish continuation after a shallow pullback. Expect a range early (≈680–705), then a push to retest 724–736 with breakout risk into 740–760 if momentum returns.
• Optimal plan: Buy the dip near 680–685 (0.236 Fib of the latest daily impulse and hourly lower Bollinger/LVNs). Primary target: 735–738 (yesterday’s high/R1 pivot cluster). Invalidation below 652–656 (S1 and 0.382 Fib).

Step-by-step technical audit

1. Multi-timeframe structure and trend

• Daily structure: Strong markup since 11/11 low at ~443. Price closed higher for four straight sessions (11/12–11/16: 507 → 521 → 604 → 672 → 698). Higher highs/lows in place. Trend is up.
• Recent daily highs/lows: 11/16 H=735.8, L=653.8, C=698.4; large true range but buyers defended 0.382 retracement of the broader leg (see Fib below).
• Hourly structure (last ~8 hours): 688 → 699 → 717 peak → 705 → 709 → 697 → 684 → 682. A controlled pullback from the 735.8 high into a potential demand zone. No impulsive breakdown; rather a flagging drift.

2. Key levels: supports and resistances (confluence prioritized)

• Support • 684–680: 0.236 retracement of 519.37 → 735.77 (calc: 735.77 − 0.236×216.4 ≈ 684), now being tested; hourly lower band proximity; recent intraday low cluster (~682–684). • 656–653: S1 pivot (656.2) and 0.382 retracement of 519.37 → 735.77 (≈652.3). Yesterday’s swing low 653.8 equals this zone; strong demand seen there. • 614: S2 pivot; deeper support if a volatility shock occurs.
• Resistance • 696–700: Daily pivot (P ≈ 696.0) and round number; initial reclaim gate for momentum. • 705–710: Intraday supply shelf from the post-717 rejection; micro-breakout trigger. • 724–736: Yesterday’s upper range and prior high (735.8). Above 736, thin overhead, momentum vacuum possible. • 738–740: R1 pivot (≈738.2) and psychological; ideal profit-taking magnet.

3. Fibonacci mapping (swing: 11/10 low 519.37 to 11/16 high 735.77)

• 23.6%: ≈684 (current test). Healthy shallow pullback in strong trends often stalls here.
• 38.2%: ≈652–653 (yesterday’s low). The reaction confirms buyers still control the broader leg.
• 50%: ≈627.6 (deeper mean reversion level if 680 and 653 fail). Interpretation: Current 682–684 zone is the shallow retracement sweet spot; holding it keeps the impulse intact and favors push to prior highs.

4. Pivot points (classic, from 11/16 H/L/C)

• P ≈ 696.0; R1 ≈ 738.2; R2 ≈ 778.0; R3 ≈ 820.2; S1 ≈ 656.2; S2 ≈ 614.0; S3 ≈ 574.3.
• Price is below P but above S1; mean-reverting tendency is to revert toward P first, then test R1 if momentum returns.

5. Moving averages (inferred)

• Daily MAs: Fast MAs (5–10) rising sharply; price far above 20/50-day, confirming strong trend. Any dip toward the 10–20 day would be much lower (not imminent given order flow strength).
• Hourly MAs: Price slipped modestly below the likely 20/50-hr cluster (~690–700). In uptrends, first reclaim of the 20/50-hr after a shallow pullback is often the springboard to retest highs.

6. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Likely high 60s–low 70s post-parabolic run; strong but not yet an obvious blow-off if pullbacks are bought.
• Hourly RSI: Likely mid-40s or testing 40; pullback relieved overbought. Favours bounce from 680–685 toward pivot 696–700.
• MACD: Daily positive and rising (trend intact). Hourly negative but flattening; histogram contraction suggests waning downside momentum—setup for bullish turn on reclaim >700.

7. Bollinger Bands and volatility

• Daily BBs are wide—ATR expanded materially since 11/07. Price sits in upper half of the bands despite pullback; trend regime intact.
• Hourly BB: Price tagged/near lower band around 682–684 during low-liquidity hours; common mean-reversion bounce zone toward mid-band (~695–700) and possibly upper band (~710–720) if momentum rebuilds.

8. Ichimoku (heuristics)

• Daily: Price well above cloud; Tenkan (~640s) above Kijun (~580s). Bullish alignment; pullbacks to Tenkan typically buyable in strong phases—current price is even stronger (above Tenkan), signalling intact trend.
• Hourly: Price has likely reverted to/through the Kijun area (~690). Chikou likely above price cluster on the higher TFs; reclaiming 700 should flip intraday Ichimoku bullish again.

9. Market profile/volume dynamics (inferred)

• Volume crescendo during 11/7–11/10 blowoff and 11/14–11/16 markup. Yesterday’s defense at 653 with heavy turnover suggests an HVN base forming 650–700.
• Thin liquidity pockets often exist above 720; once 724–736 breaks, price can accelerate into 740–760 with comparatively less resistance.

10. Price patterns

• Hourly bull flag: A descending/sideways flag from 735 down into 682–705 support. Break above 705–710 validates, projecting a retest of 735 and a measured move extension (flagpole ~80–90 points) that would open 750–760.
• Candles: Recent hourly bars show lower wicks near 683–684 and a doji at 682.0, signalling demand absorption at the band edge.

11. Elliott Wave sketch (heuristic)

• From 443 to 736 likely a wave-3-type impulse within a higher degree cycle. The 680–653 consolidation is a wave-4 variant (sideways/flat). Expect a 5th wave attempt to marginally higher highs (740–780) before a larger consolidation sets in.

12. Wyckoff lens

• Re-accumulation pattern after markup: Preliminary supply above 700, secondary test into 680s, holding within yesterday’s range. A Sign of Strength would be a pivot reclaim (696–700) and a higher low above ~690, followed by a test of 724–736 (Last Point of Supply). A push through 736 = SOS continuation.

13. Gann/angles (heuristic)

• The 1×1 up from the late-11/10 base projects interim support in mid- to high-600s today; 680 holds that bias. Lose 665 decisively and risk a slide toward 653 Gann/price confluence.

14. ATR and risk framing

• Daily ATR is very large (triple-digit). Expect 60–120 point intraday swings. Position sizing must respect that a normal oscillation can test 653 before reversing.

Scenarios for next 24 hours (subjective probabilities)

• Base case (60%): Hold 680–685, reclaim 696–700, then break 705–710 to retest 724–736. Tag/overshoot 735–738. Close near 720–740.
• Range case (30%): Whipsaw 653–705 range persists; bounces fade near 700; another probe to 656–665 before a late-session recovery.
• Bear risk tail (10%): Lose 680 quickly, accelerate to 656–653. If 653 fails on high volume, air-pocket to 627–614 (S2). This would threaten the short-term bullish setup but not necessarily the larger daily uptrend.

Trade plan (execution logic)

• Entry: Limit buy near current weakness 682 (acceptable band: 680–685) to capture the shallow Fib pullback and hourly lower band tag.
• Triggers for confirmation: Reclaim of 696–700 (daily pivot) and a 1H close above 705 would confirm momentum; however, front-running the reversal at 682 offers a better R:R given the confluence.
• Target: 738 (R1 pivot and prior supply pocket). Extension targets if momentum is strong: 750–760 (measured flag continuation).
• Invalidation (not an order field, but essential): A sustained break and 1H close below 652–656 invalidates the shallow-pullback thesis. That’s the stop region in practice.
• Risk/Reward (indicative): Entry 682, target 738 (+56). Invalidation 652 (−30). R:R ~ 1.9:1 on primary target, with upside skew if the breakout continues toward 750–760.

Why “Buy” here?

• Confluence at the entry: 0.236 Fib at ~684, hourly lower band touch, doji/hammering near 682, and continued daily uptrend with higher lows.
• Mean reversion + trend alignment: Price is stretched above daily MAs yet pulled back to intraday value; in strong trends, shallow pullbacks are typically bought.
• Pivots align the path: Below P and above S1—statistically tends to rotate toward P, then R1 when trend/momentum is positive.

24-hour price path projection

• Early session: Stabilize 678–686, attempt reclaim of 696–700.
• Mid session: If 705–710 breaks on volume, momentum accelerates; 720–728 prints.
• Late session: Retest 735–738; strong tape could extend to 748–758 before consolidating.

Contingency notes

• If a liquidity sweep prints 665–670 first, the setup is still valid so long as 653 holds and the reclaim over 690 follows. Failure to reclaim 690 after a dip increases risk of a full test of 653 and a deeper range day.