Zcash at the Brink: Buy the Tenkan Dip for a Run at the 720s

ZEC price action context and regime

• Instrument/timeframe: Zcash (ZEC), daily OHLC from 2025-08-20 to 2025-11-16 with a partial 2025-11-17 print. Current price: 682.00.
• Regime: Explosive uptrend since late September. Price accelerated from the mid-30s in August to the 700s in mid-November, a parabolic, momentum-driven expansion with very high volatility and liquidity. The market is in a momentum regime with episodic mean-reversion pullbacks.
• Structure: After a blow-off attempt on Nov 7 (~736 intraday high) and a deep washout (Nov 10–11 down to ~443), price V-recovered and made a second drive to the 730s on Nov 16. The most recent candle (Nov 17 partial) shows a selloff from 721 to close near 682, creating an upper shadow, signaling short-term supply around 720–735.

Key levels (multi-method confluence)

• Resistance/supply: 720–735 (double top/supply zone; multiple rejections: Nov 7 and Nov 16–17). Extension targets above: 745–760 (measured move and Bollinger upper band expansion window).
• Near-term pivots: 700 (psychological), 690–695 (intraday pivot), 682 (current), 672–676 (intraday micro-support), 666–668 (23.6% Fib cluster + Tenkan/EMA zone), 653–656 (Nov 16 low), 642–645 (Nov 7 close / prior resistance turned support), 620–605 (volume shelf and Kijun/EMA21 area).
• Swing anchoring for Fibs: Swing low 443.12 (Nov 11 close) to swing high 735.77 (Nov 16 high).
  • 23.6% retracement ≈ 666.6
  • 38.2% retracement ≈ 624.5
  • 50% retracement ≈ 589.4 These provide objective pullback markers; current price 682 sits just above the 23.6% retracement, indicating a shallow pullback within a strong trend.

Trend analysis (MAs, structure)

• Moving averages (daily, approximate):
  • EMA9 ≈ 650–660 (recent closes clustered 603→698; slope strongly up). Price marginally above/near EMA9; shallow pullbacks typically bounce here in momentum regimes.
  • EMA21 ≈ 600–620 (tracks the late-stage recovery). Price well above EMA21, confirming the primary uptrend.
  • EMA50 ≈ 420–450; SMA200 far below (~100s). A classic bull stack (price > EMA9 > EMA21 > EMA50 > SMA200) with strong positive slopes indicates an intact major uptrend.
• Market structure: Higher highs and higher lows from the Nov 11 bottom. Pullbacks have been bought quickly. Rising support line from 443→521→603→672 suggests demand toward mid-650s.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI14 (approx): high 60s to mid-70s. After the first spike (Nov 7), a reset during the washout pulled RSI down; the second run to ~735 likely saw RSI peak slightly below prior extremes, hinting at mild bearish divergence vs the Nov 7 spike, but still within bullish territory.
• Stochastic: Likely cycling down from overbought (>80) with room to reset into 50–60 before another push. In strong uptrends, stochastic resets to mid-band often precede next impulse.
• MACD: Positive and above signal; histogram has been contracting slightly since the Nov 16 top, signaling short-term momentum cooling without a confirmed bear cross.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR (14D, approx): Exceptionally high (80–120). Daily ranges of 10–20% are common. Expect a 24h implied range roughly 610–750 around current 682, contingent on break levels.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2, approx): Middle band (20SMA) likely ~560; upper band ~730–760; lower band ~360–400. Price has been band-walking near the upper band; the latest upper-wick suggests a pause/mini-mean-reversion toward the mid-upper channel (660s) before attempting another band ride.

Ichimoku (daily, approximate)

• Price well above cloud; Cloud (Senkou Span A/B) rising steeply, supportive of trend.
• Tenkan-sen ≈ 665–675; Kijun-sen ≈ 600–620. Current dip targets Tenkan support. Tenkan > Kijun and bullish cloud ahead; Chikou span above price. Net bullish with pullback-to-Tenkan behavior probable.

Volume, breadth, and accumulation

• Volume expansion on advances: Nov 7 and Nov 15–16 rallies printed heavy participation. Post-washout accumulation from Nov 11 onward shows constructive demand. The latest rejection into 720s came with elevated but not capitulative volume, implying controlled profit-taking rather than trend failure.
• OBV (qualitative): Trending up since Nov 11, consistent with accumulation resumption.
• Volume shelves: Notional shelves around 600–620 and 640–660 (based on repeated clustering of closes and inflection). Expect dip-buyers near 666–655.

Pattern recognition

• Ascending triangle/rising wedge hybrid:
  • Flat resistance band: 720–735.
  • Rising swing lows: 603 → 672. Compression into resistance suggests a potential breakout attempt upon sufficient energy recharge.
• Candles: Nov 17 partial session forms a long upper shadow (intraday rejection) but closed well above key supports; this often precedes a shallow retrace to support (Tenkan/23.6% Fib) then a retest of highs.

Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• From 443 (Nov 11) base:
  • Wave 1: 443→~533 (Nov 12–13)
  • Wave 2: pullback to ~485 (Nov 14 low)
  • Wave 3 extended: 485→~736 (Nov 15–16)
  • Wave 4: shallow consolidation/pullback toward 660–670 (ongoing)
  • Wave 5: prospective push to marginal new highs 740–760 before a larger ABC. This aligns with the ascending triangle breakout thesis.

Fibonacci extensions and targets

• Using 443→736 as base and 660–670 as a Wave 4 zone, a 0.618–1.0 extension from the minor consolidation yields 740–765 near-term.
• Overhead confluence: Prior spike high ~736; Bollinger upper band ~750; measured move of ascending triangle (height ~720–650 = 70) adds to ~790 on a decisive breakout. For a 24h horizon, 720–740 is the high-probability target; 760–790 would require a strong impulsive day.

Mean reversion vs trend-following synthesis

• Trend-followers: Buy dips to EMA9/Tenkan (665±10). Bias: Up, unless 642 breaks.
• Mean-reverters: Fade 720–735 with tight risk if momentum wanes intraday. However, fading a strong uptrend carries lower expectancy.
• Combined view: Highest expectancy is buy-the-dip into 662–668 with a target retest of 720–730 within 24h. If 725 breaks on volume, extension to 740–750 becomes feasible.

Risk markers and invalidation

• Invalidation of near-term bullish setup: Clean break and daily close below 642–645 opens a deeper retrace to 624 (38.2% Fib) or even 590 (50% Fib). Not base case within 24h.
• Upside invalidation for shorts: A decisive hourly close >735 with rising volume likely triggers momentum chase toward 750+.

24-hour scenario analysis

• Base case (55–60%): Dip toward 662–668, holds Tenkan/23.6% Fib, then rebound to 710–725. Close near 720.
• Bull extension (20–25%): Quick reclaim of 700–705, break 725–735, run to 740–750.
• Bear risk case (15–20%): Lose 662, probe 653–656. If that fails, flush to 642–645 before buyers step in; recovery toward 680 likely incomplete.

Execution plan and order levels

• Strategy: Buy-the-dip in the 662 area to align with Tenkan/23.6% Fib confluence and rising support. Target prior supply band retest 720–725 within 24h.
• Open (limit buy): 662.0
• Close (take profit): 724.0 (near the lower edge of supply to increase fill probability within one session). This captures the base-case rebound while respecting volatility.
• Note: A breakout strategy alternative would buy a strong 1h close above 725 aiming 742–748, but that approach isn’t selected here because the request asks for a single optimal open/close pair.

Conclusion Given the dominant uptrend, shallow Fibonacci retrace context, Tenkan/EMA support, and the presence of an ascending triangle beneath 720–735, the probabilistic edge favors a tactical long on a controlled pullback into the mid-660s with a 24-hour objective around the 720s. Decision: Buy.