ZEC coils under 700: Ascending triangle primed for breakout toward 742 within 24 hours

Executive summary and market context

• Instrument: Zcash (ZEC) USD
• Current price: 682.00 (approx), last daily close: 674.06 (2025-11-19)
• Regime: High-volatility uptrend resumption after a sharp mid-month correction; price reclaimed key retracement levels and is compressing just below the psychologically important 700 area.
• 24h bias: Moderately bullish with breakout risk over 700 toward 720–745; pullbacks into 660–670 likely to be supported.

Trend diagnostics (multi-timeframe on the provided daily series)

1. Moving averages (direction, slope, and relative location)

• 5-EMA (approx) is rising and sits near 656–662 based on the last 5 closes (671.9, 698.4, 613.3, 624.4, 674.1). Price at 682 trades above the 5-EMA, indicating short-term momentum is back to the upside.
• 10-SMA (approx) ≈ 587.5, 20-SMA (approx) ≈ 535–545 given the explosive run since late October. Price is well above both, confirming bullish structure and higher-timeframe trend dominance.
• MA stack: 5-EMA > 10-SMA > 20-SMA, all upward sloping: bullish alignment.
• Interpretation: Trend-following strategies favored; mean-reversion shorts are lower probability unless a clear reversal signal appears near 720–740.

2. Structure and price action

• Major rally from ~40 in late August to an intraday high near 736 on 11/7, followed by a swift retrace to 443 on 11/11, then a V-shaped recovery: 11/16 high 698, 11/17 low 606, 11/18 close 624, 11/19 close 674.
• Ascending triangle setup since 11/17–11/19: rising swing-lows (613 → 624 → 674) against a relatively flat ceiling at 698–700. This pattern typically breaks upward in an existing uptrend.
• Measured move of the triangle: height ≈ 698 − 613 = 85. Breakout above 700 implies a projection toward ≈ 785 (first extension often stalls near 0.618–1.000 of the height: 734–785). This aligns with pivot/extension targets below.

Momentum indicators 3) RSI (14, daily – qualitative estimate)

• After the correction, RSI likely recovered into the mid-50s to low-60s, not overbought. Rising price with RSI < 70 offers room for continuation before classical overbought readings.
• Signal: Bullish but not yet stretched; supports continuation attempts toward 720–745 in the next session.

4. Stochastics (qualitative)

• K% likely advancing above the midline with D% following, consistent with a fresh impulse leg. In a strong trend, stoch can remain elevated; not a sell signal by itself.

5. MACD / PPO (qualitative)

• Post 11/11 trough, MACD histogram likely turned positive around 11/18–11/19 as price reclaimed the 0.618 retracement and pushed toward the 0.786. Signal line crossover likely recent and upward-sloping.
• Signal: Bullish momentum rebuild; favors buying dips or breakout plays.

Volatility and bands 6) ATR (14, daily – approximation)

• Recent true ranges suggest ATR ≈ 100 USD. Expect ±100 around the day’s mean; 24h potential envelope: 582–782 from the current 682.
• Trading implication: Position sizing must respect high ATR; intraday spikes can test both sides of support/resistance zones.

7. Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ – qualitative)

• Mid-band (20-SMA) around 540 ±; upper band likely near 730–740; lower near ~340. Price is in the upper third, approaching the upper band but not tagging it yet. Bandwidth remains expanded after the November explosion.
• Implication: Room to press to the upper band if 700 breaks; also explains why pullbacks to mid/upper Keltner or 5–10 EMA zones get bought.

8. Keltner Channels (EMA20 ± 1.5 ATR – qualitative)

• Center near EMA20 (~540); upper channel ≈ 540 + 1.5×100 ≈ 690. Price is flirting with the upper Keltner boundary. Sustained closes above the upper channel typically indicate trend-strength continuation; first touch often creates some mean-reversion intraday wobbles.

Volume, participation, and flow 9) Volume trend and OBV (qualitative)

• Volume exploded during the early-November surge and remained elevated on subsequent dips and recoveries. The rebound from 443 to the 680s happened on robust participation, implying accumulation on dips.
• OBV bias: Higher lows consistent with price, suggesting constructive demand. No glaring negative divergence into the 680s yet.

10. Accumulation/Distribution (qualitative)

• Multiple sessions closing in the upper half of their true range post-11/17 indicate net buying pressure. A/D likely rising.

Key levels via Fibonacci and confluence 11) Major retracement of 11/7 high (736) to 11/11 low (443)

• 38.2% ≈ 555
• 50% ≈ 589
• 61.8% ≈ 624 (11/18 close pivoted precisely here) – reclaimed
• 78.6% ≈ 673 – price currently testing/holding above
• Implication: Reclaiming 0.786 and holding over 670 leans toward retest of swing-high zone (720–736) and possibly new highs if momentum persists.

12. Local impulse/extension from 11/11 low (443) to 11/16 high (698), pullback 11/17–11/18 to 613–624

• 1.272 extension from 613 low: 613 + 1.272×85 ≈ 721
• 1.618 extension: ≈ 750
• These targets match R2 pivot and the prior resistance shelf; high-confluence objective cluster at 720–750.

13. Anchored VWAP (qualitative)

• Anchoring from 11/11 capitulation low likely places aVWAP in the 600–620 region given heavy upside volume since. Price trading above aVWAP indicates buyers in control on the recovery leg; pullbacks toward 650–660 are frequently defended ahead of aVWAP.

Market geometry and patterns 14) Ascending triangle under 700

• Flat top: 698–700; rising base: 613 → 624 → 674. Breakout probability higher in the direction of the prevailing trend (up). Measured move ≈ +85 projects 785 if breakout confirms; initial resistance bands at 720–745 could create the first pause.

15. Flags and consolidation

• The 11/17–11/19 advance out of the 613–624 trough looks like a flag breakout continuation from the 11/11 base. Price is stair-stepping higher with shallow pullbacks, common in bullish impulses when ADX is elevated.

16. Elliott Wave perspective (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 443 → 698 (+255)
• Wave 2: 698 → 613 (−85)
• Wave 3 in progress: targets often exceed Wave 1 proportionally; conservative short-term expectation is at least retest of Wave 1 high (698–736). Full 1.0× projection from 613 implies ≈ 868 (beyond 24h scope but contextualizes upside risk). Near-term: subwave resistance at 720–745 aligns with 1.272 extension.

17. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price is well above a likely rising Kumo; Tenkan above Kijun post-recross; price above both: bullish. Chikou span would be above price for most of the past 26 periods, reinforcing bullish bias. Clouds suggest dynamic support around the 600s if tested in coming days.

18. DMI/ADX (qualitative)

• +DI has likely recrossed above −DI as price reclaimed 0.618/0.786; ADX elevated from earlier impulse, often signaling trend-following setups have edge over counter-trend shorts.

19. Parabolic SAR (qualitative)

• Likely flipped below price after the 11/18–11/19 strength, generating a long bias signal. This tends to trail the move and serves as a dynamic stop reference on pullbacks.

Pivot points and intraday roadmap (based on 11/19 H/L/C ≈ 680.27/583.06/674.06)

• Classic Pivot P ≈ 645.8
• R1 ≈ 708.6; R2 ≈ 743.0; R3 ≈ 805.8
• S1 ≈ 611.3; S2 ≈ 548.6; S3 ≈ 513.1
• With price around 682 (above P), the path of least resistance is toward R1 and possibly R2 on a breakout, consistent with our Fib and extension cluster (721–745).

Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Bull case (≈55%): Early dip gets bought above 660–670; push through 695–700 triggers breakout momentum into 708 (R1), then 721–743 (Fib 1.272 / R2). Wicks to 750 possible if momentum/volume expands.
• Base case (≈30%): Consolidation between 650–700, closing near 670–685 as the market builds energy just below resistance. This still favors buying dips rather than shorting the top of the range.
• Bear case (≈15%): Failed tests of 695–700 with a reversal candle and a high-range sell day send price back to 640–650; more extreme stop-run could tag 624 (0.618) or 611 (S1) before dip buyers return.

Risk and invalidation levels

• Primary support: 660–670 intraday, then 640–650; major support: 624 (Fib 0.618) and 611 (S1). A daily close below 624 would negate the immediate bullish impulse and risk a deeper retrace toward 589–555.
• Overhead supply: 695–700 (ceiling), then 720–736 (prior highs and R2 zone). Expect volatility and whipsaws around 700.

Trade plan construction

• Edge rationale: Trend up, momentum rebuilding, reclaim of 0.786 retracement, ascending triangle under 700, confluence of R1/R2 and Fib extensions at 708/721–743, and supportive volume profile above aVWAP.
• Entry tactics: Given ATR ≈ 100 and frequent retests, a buy-the-dip limit near 668 optimizes reward-to-risk while maintaining alignment with the uptrend. A secondary tactic (noted for completeness) is a breakout buy-stop >705–708 targeting 721–743; however, we select the dip-entry as the primary optimal entry price.
• Targeting: First objective near R2/Fib cluster 742; a partial take at 708–721 is viable for active traders, but our single close target is set near 742 to align with the 24h upside potential.
• Stop (informational, not part of the output fields): A prudent protective stop could sit below 642–645 (beneath local demand and below the 5–10 day averages), or tighter under 655 if seeking higher R:R but accepting greater stop-out risk. From 668 to 742 yields ≈ +74 vs. a 23–26 risk to 642–645 (≈ 2.8–3.2 R multiple) if using the wider stop, acceptable in a high-ATR context.

Consolidated outlook

• Bias: Buy dips; anticipate a 24h range of roughly 650–740 with upside skew if 700 breaks decisively. Structural bull signals outweigh bear risks unless 624 fails on a daily close.
• Probability-weighted path: Minor pullback toward mid- to high-660s → test 695–700 → breakout attempt to 708 → extension into 721–743; failure scenario tests 650–655 with buyers likely reappearing.

Decision

• Action: Buy (Long position)
• Optimal open (limit on dip): 668.0
• Close (take-profit): 742.0
• Rationale: Captures the anticipated dip-and-rip dynamic beneath resistance with confluence of ascending triangle breakout potential, R2/Fib 1.272 target alignment, and strong trend/momentum backdrop.

Note: Extremely high volatility. Size appropriately and consider bracket orders (stop below 642–645) to protect capital if the breakout setup fails.