Zcash Price Analysis Powered by AI

Zcash at the 50% Fib: Sell the Bounce Toward 600, Aim for 545 in the Next 24 Hours

Executive summary

Bias next 24h: Short-term bearish continuation with a relief bounce likely. Expect a retest of 590–605, followed by a drift toward 552–545 if 605–615 supply holds.
Rationale: Breakdown below the 600 handle and below intraday VWAP, bearish momentum (MACD/RSI down), price sitting right at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 11/11 → 11/16 upswing, and a strong distribution day on elevated volume. Daily trend remains up over the medium term, but the short-term structure favors selling bounces.

Daily context (Aug → Nov): ZEC surged from the mid-$40s in late Aug to a peak near $736 (11/7), followed by high-volatility two-way trade. The medium-term trend remains up (price well above any plausible 50D MA), but momentum has cooled since the 11/16 lower high (698) vs 11/07 high (736).
Recent closes: 11/19 674.06 → 11/20 655.48 → current 569.11 (22:06 UTC). Two sharp down sessions indicate a short-term downtrend.
Intraday (hourly, 11/21): Sequence of lower highs/lows from ~640s to a 562.98 low. Minor stabilization into the close (~569). This is classic trend-down intraday structure with late-day balance near support.

Intraday low: 562.98. First support shelf: 562–568. If this breaks, next magnet: 552–545.
Resistance zones: 590–605 (prior intraday supply and the 38.2%/pivot cluster), then 615–620 (hourly breakdown pivot), then 640–650 (intraday distribution area).
Classic daily pivot (using 11/21 H/L/C ≈ 694.62/562.98/655.48):
- P ≈ 637.69; R1 ≈ 712.40; R2 ≈ 769.33; S1 ≈ 580.76; S2 ≈ 506.05. Price is below S1 (bearish regime); mean-reversion bounces often retest S1/P, but failing at S1 maintains downside pressure.

Swing considered: 11/11 low 443.12 → 11/16 high 698.43 (range 255.31):
- 38.2%: ~600.90
- 50%: ~570.77
- 61.8%: ~540.88
Current price ≈ 569.11 ⇒ hugging the 50% retracement. Typical behavior: either a reflex bounce to 38.2% (~601) before continuation, or a slice toward 61.8% (~541). Given momentum is bearish, base case is a rejection near 600 leading to 545 ±5.

RSI(14) daily (approx calc on last 14 closes): ~45.0. Neutral-bearish, not oversold, leaving room for further downside.
Hourly RSI (qualitative): likely sub-35 after the afternoon slide; supports a short-lived bounce before trend resumes.
MACD daily: Short EMA crossing down through long EMA post 11/20; histogram likely went negative today. Bearish short-term impulse.
Stochastics: Intraday oversold; daily mid-zone. Typical setup for sell-the-rip in a short-term down move.

ATR(14) daily (approx): ~90–100. Next 24h expected range roughly 540–640 given current location.
Bollinger Bands(20D): Price is tracking the lower half of the envelope; today’s expansion suggests trending conditions rather than mean-reversion dominance. A tag of the lower band then a bounce fits the expected path.

Today’s session shows heavy sell-side volume, especially on the breakdown legs (20:00–21:00 UTC candle taking price to ~563). OBV likely rolled over. This supports distribution rather than accumulation near 580–600.
The prior rally legs (11/14–11/16) showed strong participation; current decline on high volume indicates an active two-way market with sellers in control intraday.

Price pushed below Tenkan and is converging toward/under the Kijun; cloud support from the recent uptrend is above current price zone (600–630). Being below conversion/base lines favors short-term weakness unless price reclaims ~615–620 decisively.

Short-term: Potential A-B-C from 11/16 high (A down to 11/17/11/18 lows, B to 11/19, C leg active). A 1.0–1.272 extension from the B turn points to 552–540 confluence with the 61.8% Fib.
Medium-term: Still a higher-high/higher-low regime vs 11/11 low; however, a pullback to the 61.8% (541) would remain constructive in the bigger picture while allowing short-term shorts to play out.

Price remained below session VWAP most of the US session and trended away from it into the close—textbook bearish trend day. Expect early-session mean reversion next period, but unless reclaimed, VWAP acts as resistance.

Bearish base case (60%): Relief bounce into 590–605 stalls; sellers defend 600 ±5; price rotates down to 552–545. If momentum persists, a spike to 541 (61.8% Fib) can print before a stronger reaction.
Deeper bear (30%): Little-to-no bounce; clean break under 562.98 accelerates to 541–535 quickly, then a choppy base forms.
Bull surprise (10%): Swift reclaim of 615–620 converts resistance to support; squeeze toward 640–650. Requires breadth and volume shift; not the favored outcome.

For shorts, an optimal entry is a patient sell-the-bounce into 595–605 with a stop above 615–620 (above supply and Kijun/VWAP cluster), targeting 545 (R:R ≈ 1:2 to 1:3 depending on exact stop). If momentum breaks 562 immediately, momentum shorts can chase with tighter risk, but the preferred setup is to fade the bounce.
For longs, better asymmetric spots are 545–541 only if you see capitulation wicks and positive divergences on the 15–60m oscillators. Until then, the path of least resistance remains down.

Today resembles a bearish trend candle closing near the lows after a sustained intraday decline—no clear reversal pattern yet. A minor 1h basing pattern near 568–573 might form, but it needs confirmation via a reclaim of 590+ to matter.

Conclusion

The weight of evidence (break below 600, RSI ~45, MACD down, VWAP rejection, heavy distribution, 50% Fib hover) favors selling a bounce. Targeting 545 (just above the 61.8% Fib 540.9) within the next 24 hours is reasonable with ATR support.

24-hour price path projection

Expect a pop to 595–605, then a fade to 552–545. Only a decisive reclaim and hold above 615–620 invalidates the short setup and opens 640–650.