Zcash at the Precipice: Fading the 520–523 Supply for a 24‑Hour Push Back to 490

Timeframes used: Daily (D), 4H (approximated from hourly), 1H intraday. Data to 2025-11-22 21:56 UTC. Current price: $509.52.

Executive context and structure

• Regime: Extremely high-volatility post-parabolic phase with active distribution since 2025-11-16 peak (~$736). Short-term trend down; medium-term trend still elevated versus October base; liquidity pockets are wide.
• Objective: 24-hour directional bias and optimal entry/exit using multi-signal confluence. Focus on levels 480–523–547–600.

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily structure: After the Nov 7–16 parabolic advance (H: ~735), ZEC printed a sharp markdown to 11/11 L ~443, then a counter-trend rally to 11/16 H ~736 (double top-ish/throw-over), followed by lower highs (11/19 H ~680, 11/20 H ~715 failed to hold, 11/21 H ~696) and lower lows (11/21 close ~547). Today (11/22) shows a long lower wick: O ~548, L ~478, C ~510, signaling demand at sub-$500 but not enough to reclaim key supply above $520–$545.
• 1H structure (11/21–11/22): Repeated rejections 520–523; intraday low ~471.6 during Asia hours; subsequent bounce capped at ~521. The sequence remains lower high → lower low on 1H, forming a descending channel/bear flag between ~480 and ~520.
• Key levels:
  • Support: 480–490 (intraday demand and liquidity sweep today), 443 (swing low 11/11), psychological 500.
  • Resistance: 520–523 (multi-hour supply/Kijun/EMA cluster), 540–547 (prior breakdown/base), 600 (round number and prior distribution shelf).

2. Trend and moving averages (directional bias)

• Daily 9/21 EMA: 9-EMA declining and below a flat-to-down 21-EMA; price is below both → bearish short-term momentum.
• Daily 20SMA vs 50SMA: 20SMA likely ~580–600 given last 20 closes; price at 510 sits well below the 20SMA (bearish). 50SMA likely far lower than price (reflecting pre-squeeze days) → medium-term still elevated above long-term mean, but slope flattening; short-term takes priority for a 24h call.
• 1H EMAs (20/50/200): Price oscillates around/below the 20/50 EMA and remains well below the 200 EMA from the prior day’s breakdown → intraday trend remains down to sideways with rallies sold.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (estimate): ~42–46 after today’s bounce from ~478 to ~510 → weak momentum, not deeply oversold; room exists both ways but below the bull/bear line (~50).
• 1H RSI: Mostly 45–50, consistent with a bear-flag consolidation rather than a trend reversal; repeated failure to push >55 near 520–523.
• Stochastic (D): Exited overbought earlier in the week and is mid-cycle; no strong reversal signal yet. 1H Stoch oscillates inside range, topping out near resistance → favors fade-the-rally setups.
• MACD (D): Bearish cross occurred during the Nov 20–21 drop; histogram negative, slightly contracting today (dead-cat bounce). 1H MACD near zero line with shallow positive blips that fail at resistance → rallies lack thrust.

4. Volatility and bands/channels

• Daily ATR: Extremely elevated (rough est. 80–110). Expect 24h realized range on the order of 60–120 points (12–20%).
• Bollinger Bands (D): Price trades in the lower half, hovering near/just above the lower band after tagging sub-500; mean reversion bounce occurred but not to the mid-band (~20SMA area ~590). On 1H, price rotates around the middle band and fails upper band extensions near 520–523 → intraday upside capped.
• Keltner Channels (1H): Price remains in/near lower channel; mean reversion tests toward midline get sold.
• Donchian (20D): High ~736, low ~443; current price in the lower half, below midrange → seller’s territory.

5. Volume, VWAP, and breadth

• Volume profile: Heavy distribution on down days (11/21) outpaced bounce volumes. Today’s rally off 478 into 510 had diminishing volume at the highs → supply overhead.
• OBV: Rolling over since 11/19–21; no bullish divergence versus price lows → confirms distribution.
• Anchored VWAP: From 11/21 breakdown candle, aVWAP likely ~515–522; price oscillated below/around it intraday and failed to sustain above → intraday sellers active at aVWAP.
• Breadth/pressure: Stronger participation on sell candles than buy candles since mid-week.

6. Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price below Tenkan (~615) and Kijun (~575). Cloud far below from pre-squeeze, with price above the cloud but momentum signals are bearish (Lagging Span likely trapped under recent price). For a tactical 24h trade, Tenkan/Kijun rejection dominates → bearish.
• 1H: Price below/at cloud base most of the session; repeated Kijun rejections 520–523.

7. ADX/DI and trend strength

• Daily ADX likely >25 given recent moves; -DI > +DI → bearish control short term.
• 1H ADX moderate and fading into consolidation → supports a bear flag thesis with potential continuation.

8. Fibonacci and confluence zones

• Swing Nov 16 H ~735.8 to Nov 21 L ~547.3:
  • 38.2% ≈ 619, 50% ≈ 641, 61.8% ≈ 663; reaction highs 11/19–20 near 655–715 failed → resistance proven above 620.
• Micro swing Nov 21 L ~547 to today’s L ~478:
  • 50% of 547→478 ≈ 512.5; 61.8% ≈ 520.6. Price is currently ~509–510, with persistent failure near 520–523 = golden pocket/supply confluence with aVWAP and 1H Kijun.
• Larger retracement (Nov 7 H ~736 → Nov 11 L ~443): Rebounds above 61.8% (~629) failed to hold; implies distribution at/above 630–700.
• Conclusion: 520–523 is a strong confluence sell zone; 540–547 is the next major sell wall.

9. Candle/Pattern diagnostics

• Daily: Long lower shadow today, but body below yesterday’s breakdown, failing to engulf. That’s a reactionary bounce, not reversal confirmation.
• 1H: Repeated upper wick rejections ~520; structure aligns as a descending channel/bear flag with measured move back toward 490–495 if the flag breaks.

10. Wyckoff/Elliott interpretation

• Wyckoff: Post-parabolic distribution appears in late Nov; 11/21 shows Sign of Weakness (SOW) with increased spread and volume; today’s rally is an Automatic Rally/Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD on intraday), failing at 520–523. Expect another markdown toward prior demand (500→490, potentially 480) if supply persists.
• Elliott (tactical): Impulsive A down 735→547, B bounce shallow and failing under key Fibs (capped 520–523 intraday for this minor leg), setting up C leg to marginal new lows vs today’s intraday low (tests 495→480). Alternate count allows a complex flat that still seeks a C leg toward 490 before any larger recovery.

11. Risk management and scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Range 480–523 with downside skew; rallies into 520–523 fade; break of 500 exposes 495 and then 488–480. Close near 495–505.
• Bull alternate (25%): Strong reclaim and hold above 523 with acceptance above 535 → squeeze toward 545–552; still likely to stall below 560 unless volume surges.
• Bear extension (15%): Clean break of 480 on heavy volume → swift test of 460–445 (11/11 swing). Less likely in 24h absent catalyst, but within ATR.

12. Confluence summary for trade selection

• Short-term indicators (RSI<50, MACD<0, 1H EMA/Kijun resistance, aVWAP cap) + structure (lower highs, bear flag) + Fib/golden pocket at 520–523 + repeated intraday failures near that zone = Favor shorting a pop into 520–523 with target near 490.
• Invalidation: Sustained acceptance >545 (1H close above + follow-through) would invalidate the tactical short and open room to 575–600.

13. 24-hour price prediction

• Expected range: 480–540 with mid ~510.
• Path: Early probe toward 518–523, rejection, drift lower to 498–502; if 500 breaks, extension to 490–495; tail risk wick to 480.

Trade plan (tactical, 24h)

• Position: Short (Sell) on a pop into resistance.
• Entry zone: 520.0–522.0 (optimal trigger ~520.5 aligning with 61.8% micro-Fib and aVWAP cluster).
• Target (take profit): 490.0 (front-run sub-490 bids and high-liquidity psychological level). If momentum dries before, scale out 500–495; if velocity spike, trail for 485–480 extension.
• Protective logic (not required by prompt but operational): Hard stop 545; R:R ≈ (520.5→545 risk 24.5) vs (520.5→490 gain 30.5) ≈ 1:1.25, improved by scaling from 522 and adding on failed 523 retest.

Bottom line

• The multi-tool confluence favors fading rallies into 520–523 for a 24h short toward 490, given persistent intraday supply, negative momentum, and the bear-flag structure within a high-ATR regime.