ZEC coiling above 590: poised to push for the 0.618 Fib at 635 within 24 hours

Summary view

• Instrument: Zcash (ZEC)
• Current price: 597.58
• Time horizon assessed: next 24 hours
• Baseline stance: Bullish continuation after a two-day washout and a strong reclaim day; buy dips into 585–592 with targets into 630–635 if momentum persists.

1. Market regime and context

• Regime shift: ZEC moved from a multi-week base in the $40–$60 zone (Aug–Sept) into a powerful momentum regime in Oct–Nov, peaking intraday near 735–736 on Nov 16 before a sharp multi-day pullback. This establishes a high-volatility, momentum-driven environment with deep retracements and fast rebounds typical of altcoin expansions.
• Recent structure: The last three sessions show a volatility crescendo followed by a two-day liquidation (Nov 21 close 547.33; Nov 22 close 517.20) and today’s powerful green day (open 517.83, high 606.87, close 597.58), reclaiming the prior breakdown zone and printing a bullish reversal signal.

2. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Daily trend: Uptrend intact on higher timeframe despite corrective legs. Price remains well above the 50-day averages (given the prior explosive rally), and today’s close appears near-to-slightly above the 20-day mean (visual approximation from closes in the 500–700 range). Structure printed: HHs in mid-Nov (698 close 11/16; 674 close 11/19), then HL attempts after washout to 517 on 11/22.
• 1H trend: Clear sequence of higher lows and higher highs from the 11/23 00:00–01:00 breakout:
  • Swing low: ~516–517
  • HLs: ~569 (06:00), ~567 (11:00), ~574–575 (16:00), ~594–595 (20:00)
  • HHs: ~597–600 (02–03:00), ~606 (19:00)
  • Conclusion: Intraday bullish structure persists while >585–590.

3. Key support/resistance and zones of interest

• Immediate support: 585–592 (intraday shelf + volume cluster around 18:00–21:00; also near today’s VWAP/means on 1H). Below that: 570–575 (1H Kijun/MA cluster region), then 550–555 (prior breakdown ledge) and 520–525 (yesterday’s close/prox to 11/22 close and today’s open).
• Immediate resistance: 605–607 (today’s high region) then 620–625 (prior daily supply/close 11/18 ~624.36) and 634–635 (Fib 0.618 confluence; see below). Above that: 650 and 680.

4. Fibonacci mapping (swing high to swing low)

• Using Nov 16 high ~735.77 and Nov 22 low ~471.55 (significant recent extremes):
  • 38.2%: ~572.5 (already reclaimed and frequently retested intraday)
  • 50.0%: ~603.7 (today’s high 606.9 tagged this neighborhood and rejected once)
  • 61.8%: ~635.0 (next major upside magnet/resistance)
• Read: Current price sits between the 0.5 and 0.618 retrace after reclaiming 0.382. The path of least resistance is a test of 0.618 (~635) if 600/606 breaks with follow-through.

5. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI (est.): Mid-50s to low-60s after today’s strong green candle, far from overbought, supportive of further upside recovery.
• 1H RSI: Reached elevated readings during the 606 push, then mean-reverted toward 55–60 on consolidation, a classic bull-flag momentum reset that often precedes another leg up as long as price holds the higher lows.
• MACD (1H): Positive and above zero after a strong cross during the early-session breakout (01:00–02:00). Histogram pullback during the 20:00–21:00 dip appears shallow, consistent with consolidation rather than reversal.

6. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (1H): Expanded on the 01:00–02:00 surge; price then rode the upper band into 606 before a controlled mean reversion to the mid-band area near 590–595. The band posture suggests a pause within an expansion phase rather than a full squeeze; an upper band walk can resume on any 600/606 break.
• Daily ATR(14) (visual est.): ~110–140, given recent session ranges of 90–200+. This supports the feasibility of a 30–50 point move in either direction over the next 24 hours; a 35–40 point upside target is realistic if momentum persists.

7. Ichimoku (1H and Daily context)

• 1H: Price > Kumo; Tenkan > Kijun; Span A > Span B. A typical bullish configuration. Kijun likely trails in the 580s, aligning with the 585–592 buy zone. Retests of Kijun in bullish trends are buy-the-dip opportunities while Kumo remains supportive.
• Daily: Price reclaiming the conversion baseline area after two heavy red days; cloud likely thick below price due to prior volatility, which lends support to the uptrend’s higher timeframe bias.

8. Volume and flow

• Today’s 19:00 hour printed a strong up-candle with notable volume (125M), pushing to the day’s high zone, indicating active dip demand above 588.
• OBV (conceptual): Risen intraday with higher closes and rising volume on up pushes, confirming accumulation on dips.
• Tape behavior: Multiple rejections of sub-570s during the session, followed by aggressive bids near 588–592 and again near 595, imply a short-term demand pocket just below current price.

9. VWAP and Anchored VWAP

• Session VWAP (11/23 intraday, qualitative): Price oscillated above VWAP post-breakout, with pullbacks toward the VWAP/mean finding buyers around 588–595. Maintaining above the session VWAP into the next session typically sets up continuation attempts.
• Anchored VWAP from the 11/22 low (~471–472) would sit materially below current price; from today’s low (~516) likely tracks in the 570s–580s, both supportive bands beneath price.

10. Candlestick and pattern context

• Daily: Bullish engulfing/reversal-type behavior versus Nov 22, reclaiming a large portion of the prior two-day decline. Closing near the upper third of the day’s range is constructive.
• Intraday pattern: Bullish flag/channel consolidation from 606 down to 595, with HL maintenance. A clean break/hold above 606 would complete the flag and target the 0.618 Fib (~635).

11. Wyckoff/Market profile read

• Wyckoff: The 11/22 dip looks like a selling climax/automatic rally sequence, with today’s action an AR/secondary test dynamic. The rapid reclaim suggests accumulation stepping in. Distribution signs are absent intraday (no sustained upthrust + failure structure yet at current levels).
• Profile (qualitative): HVN around 575–585 from repeated trades; LVN around 605–606 (spot of single prints on the thrust). Acceptance above 606 should shift value higher toward 620–635.

12. Elliott/Wave structure (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 516 → ~600
• Wave 2: pullback ~600 → ~566–570
• Wave 3: 570 → ~606
• Wave 4: 606 → ~594–595 (sideways/down consolidation)
• Wave 5 potential: 595 → 630–635 (0.618 retrace target). Invalidation on break below ~585 (wave structure deformation on 1H).

13. Pivots and confluence

• Using today’s H/L/C: H 606.87, L 516.39, C 597.58
  • Pivot P ≈ (606.87 + 516.39 + 597.58) / 3 ≈ 573.61
  • R1 ≈ 630.83
  • R2 ≈ 664.09
  • S1 ≈ 540.35
• Confluence: R1 ~631 aligns with the 0.618 Fib (~635) and prior resistance cluster. This strengthens 630–635 as a high-probability magnet if 606 breaks.

14. Risk factors and invalidation

• Immediate risk: Another rejection at 600–606 that loses 592 then 585 would force a deeper mean reversion toward 570–575, and possibly 550 if momentum breaks.
• Event volatility: While not provided in the dataset, altcoin volatility often correlates with major-coin moves; a sharp move in majors could override the setup. Manage risk accordingly.

15. Next-24h scenario mapping (subjective probability)

• Bullish continuation (60%): Hold 585–592, break and hold above 600–606, impulse toward 620–625, extend to 630–635 (R1/Fib 0.618). Potential wicks to 640–645 possible if momentum runs.
• Range churn (25%): Chop between 585–606, multiple tests of both edges, closing the day near 600 ±10.
• Bearish fade (15%): Lose 585 decisively, slide to 570–575; if liquidity thins, a spike toward 550–555 before responsive buying. This would delay the 630 test.

16. Trade plan translation

• Bias: Buy-the-dip within trend continuation.
• Optimal entry: 589–592 (into the intraday support shelf and 1H mean/Kijun zone), with market structure still bullish while >585.
• Target: 630–635 (R1 + 0.618 Fib confluence, prior supply). A first scale at ~620–625 is reasonable operationally; main take-profit into 632–635.
• Optional protective stop (not required in output): ~571–575 to keep below support cluster while honoring ATR; that yields a respectable R/R with a 630–635 target.

Conclusion and call

• The confluence of a bullish daily reversal, 1H higher-lows, reclaimed 0.5 Fib (~604), and a nearby target at 0.618 (~635) argues for Buy on dips. Expect a 600/606 break attempt within 24 hours and a test of 630–635 if that break holds.