Zcash at the Brink: Short the Bounce to Pivot (505–507), Eyes on 480

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bearish to range‑down. Expect rallies to be sold; likely path is a fade toward 480 with risk of a liquidity sweep into 470–462 if S1 gives way.
• Plan: Sell the bounce into the intraday pivot area (≈505–507). First target 480 (daily S1), stretch target 462 (S2) if momentum accelerates.

Market regime and context (multi‑timeframe)

• Higher‑timeframe context: ZEC launched a parabolic advance from late September through mid‑November, peaking near 736 on Nov 7, followed by wide‑range distribution. Since Nov 16’s lower high (~698), daily structure has transitioned to a sequence of lower highs and (as of today) lower lows. This is a classic post‑parabola cooling phase where mean reversion pulses alternate with trend legs down.
• Daily trend: Down in the short term. Current close 498.856 is well below the 20‑day mean (~579), confirming negative momentum and mean‑reversion pressure remains to the downside.
• Intraday (hourly) structure: Today’s profile featured early weakness, a mid‑session attempt to recover to ~505–506, and late‑day drift back under 500. Lower highs throughout the session (532 → 525 → 512 → 505) and fresh session lows (~485) mark a controlled intraday downtrend.

Price action and structure

• Daily levels:
  • Resistance: 519–525 (prior closes/pivot cluster), 547, 572, 603.
  • Support: 500/498 (round/close), 491 (today’s breakdown body), 485 (hourly swing low), 471 (Nov 13 low), 443 (Nov 11 capitulation close).
• Pattern: A descending channel/descending triangle is forming with a flat‑ish base around 490–500 and a sequence of descending swing highs (698 → 674 → 655 → 572 → 547/525). A base break projects to 455–460 on a measured move (height ≈ 525–490 = 35; 490 − 35 ≈ 455), aligning with S2 and prior demand.
• Candles:
  • Today (Nov 25): Red real body from 519 open to 499 close with a decent lower tail (L=487). Not a hammer; close is below mid‑range—more consistent with continuation after a weak bounce.
  • Nov 23 bullish attempt (517→572) failed the next two sessions—bearish follow‑through and rejection at lower highs.

Moving averages (trend filters)

• 20‑day SMA ≈ 579: Price is ~14% below, indicating short‑term bearish regime.
• 9/21 EMA (qualitative): 9‑EMA likely in the mid‑550s; price is below both 9 and 21 EMAs. This alignment (price < 9EMA < 21EMA) supports selling rallies.
• 50‑day SMA (approx): Given the regime shift and prior surge, the 50SMA is likely near low‑500s; price oscillating around/just below it suggests distribution rather than trend resumption.

Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily, qualitative): After peaking during the early‑Nov spike, RSI has rolled over and is trending lower, likely mid‑40s to high‑30s now—bearish but not deeply oversold, leaving room for further downside before tactical bounce risk becomes dominant.
• MACD (daily): Bearish cross occurred as price rolled off 698; histogram negative and building. Supports continuation lower.
• RSI/MACD (hourly): RSI spent much of the day sub‑50 with shallow recoveries; MACD histogram is negative but flattening late session—consistent with small corrective bounces into resistance rather than a trend reversal.
• Stochastics (daily): Likely sub‑50 and curling down—can stay pinned in a downtrend; not a reliable reversal signal here.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(10 daily) estimate ≈ 90–95. Expect 24h ranges of ~8–15% to remain possible. With today’s range ~45 already compressed vs recent history, a re‑expansion lower is a risk if 490 fails.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ≈ 579; lower band likely near 400 given recent volatility. Price rides the lower half of the envelope, suggesting downside pressure with room before statistical extremes are reached. Bounces toward the midline are sellable until slope changes.

Ichimoku (daily, approximations)

• Tenkan (9‑period mid) ≈ 604; Kijun (26) ≈ 470. Price (499) is below Tenkan (bearish) but still above Kijun. The leading span A likely ~537 and above span B (~420s), placing price below Span A but above Span B—an indecision zone with bearish tilt. A tag of Kijun (~470) is a common mean‑revert target in corrective phases.

Fibonacci and symmetry

• From the local B‑wave high (698 on Nov 16) to the Nov 22 low (517), price rebounded less than 38.2% and failed—classic bearish continuation signature. Now that 517 has been undercut (today’s 498 close, 487 low), the next symmetric target is the 0.618–1.0 extension zone into 470–443. Elliott‑style ABC symmetry from the Nov 7 high to Nov 11 low (A), Nov 16 high (B) projects a C wave potential near 405–430; that’s a larger horizon, but it contextualizes the medium‑term risk if supports break. For 24h we focus on 480/462.

Pivots, VWAP, and intraday landmarks

• Daily pivots for Nov 25 (derived from H=532.244, L=487.274, C=498.856):
  • Pivot P ≈ 506.1
  • R1 ≈ 525.0; R2 ≈ 551.1
  • S1 ≈ 480.0; S2 ≈ 461.2
• Price is closing below P; sellers control the session. Rallies to P/R1 zones are favorable short entries. S1 (≈480) is the first magnet. If momentum picks up (e.g., risk‑off spill across crypto), S2 (~461) can print.
• Session VWAP (hourly, qualitative) sat ~505–506 most of the day; late trade under VWAP confirms sell‑the‑rip dynamics.

Volume and order‑flow reads

• Distribution footprints: Notable volume spikes on down candles (11:00 and 19:00 hours), and muted volume on upticks—typical of supply overwhelming demand near resistance.
• Post‑parabola profile: After the early‑Nov blowoff, heavy volume nodes accumulated between 600–680. The recent acceptance zone shifted down into 515–525, now acting as resistance after today’s breakdown.

Statistical framing (next 24h)

• Expected range: Using ~90 ATR basis, a ±45 move around the close is reasonable. That frames 24h value between roughly 455 and 545 with a bearish skew given trend and pivot posture.
• Probabilistic path: 60% chance of a drift lower toward 480 ±5; 30% chance of range trade 490–510; 10% chance of sharp reversal thrust above 525 (would likely require market‑wide risk‑on).

Risk scenarios

• Bearish continuation (base case): Fail early at 505–507 (pivot), roll over to test 491/485, then probe S1 480. If liquidity sweeps under 480 stick, 471/462 prints are possible before mean‑revert bounce.
• Range day (second case): Hold 491–498, oscillate 498–508, with failed breaks both sides; not unusual after a compressed finish.
• Bullish surprise (low‑probability): Quick reclaim of 512 then 525 (R1) with hourly close above 525 would invalidate the immediate short and open a squeeze to 551 (R2). That would also flatten the hourly downtrend.

Confluence to act

• Sell zones cluster: Intraday pivot (≈506), VWAP (~505–506), breakdown shelf/mini‑supply (503–507), and R1 overhead (525) create a wide but favorable supply band. Shorting into 505–507 offers proximity to invalidation and good R multiple to S1/S2.
• Targets cluster: S1 (480), prior swing 471, and S2 (461) sit ~5–9% below the sell zone—realistic within a 24h, high‑beta crypto tape.

Trade plan (24h tactical)

• Position: Short on a bounce into 505–507 (limit sell), partials at 481–485, leave a runner for 462 if momentum accelerates. If price fails to bounce and immediately breaks 491, a momentum short on break/retest is an alternate entry.
• Invalidation (for planning): Hourly close above 512 weakens the setup; above 525 flips bias to neutral/up for the session. Though not requested, a prudent stop would sit ~526–532 depending on fill.

Conclusion

• With price below the 20‑day mean, under daily pivot, and intraday trend sloping down, the path of least resistance remains lower. Favor selling the rebound toward 505–507; first support magnet is 480. A decisive break of 480 opens 471/462. Until 525 is reclaimed on an hourly basis, treat pops as opportunities to fade.