Zcash poised for a tactical bounce: Buying the 515–518 dip for a 534 → 552 squeeze

Executive Summary and 24h View

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish (countertrend bounce inside broader corrective structure)
• Expected 24h range: 505 – 552 with a tilt to test 534/548 supply zones
• Key levels: Support 505–515 (78.6% retrace cluster), 493–500 (psychological/prev intraday low). Resistance 534 (R1 pivot), 552–557 (Fib/weekly liquidity), 579–590 (20D SMA/50% retrace – strong cap)
• Plan: Buy dips toward 515–518, aim for a push into 548–552

1. Market Structure and Trend (Multi‑Timeframe)

• Daily structure: After a parabolic advance to 735–736 (Nov 16), price has been correcting in a broad ABC-like structure. Recent closes show stabilization above the 78.6% retracement of the 443→736 leg (~506), suggesting a maturing correction with basing efforts around 510–525.
• Hourly structure (last 24h): A sequence of higher lows from 494.6 → ~502.6 → ~509 → ~513 → ~516 → ~521, with a marginal higher high push to 526–527. This indicates an emerging intraday uptrend channel off the 11:00 UTC sell spike to 494.6.
• Volume context: Heavy selling pressure 11/21–11/22 followed by compressing ranges and steadier volumes. Today’s intraday rebound above volume-weighted levels implies dip absorption.

2. Moving Averages (Trend Filters)

• Daily 5D SMA ≈ 528.9; 10D SMA ≈ 575.9; 20D SMA ≈ 579.2. Current 523.7 is below 5/10/20D SMAs, confirming the broader short-term downtrend, but the distance to the 5D is small (mean-reversion potential). The 50D (not computed exactly) is likely lower than the 20D given October’s breakout, still upward sloping; the market remains in a larger uptrend with a short-term corrective bias.
• Hourly EMAs (qualitative): Price reclaimed the hourly 20/50 EMA zone during the US session and held above into the close, a constructive sign for a continuation attempt toward 534 first resistance.

3. Momentum Indicators

• Daily RSI(14) estimate ≈ 50–51 (neutral). Momentum has normalized from overbought and is no longer bearish-extreme; room exists for a rebound without being overextended.
• Hourly RSI(14): Neutral-to-positive (mid‑50s to low‑60s by behavior), consistent with higher lows and incremental HHs.
• Stochastic (daily proxy): Using last 14-day high ~736 and low ~443, %K ≈ (523−443)/(736−443) ≈ 27%. Not oversold (<20) but in the lower band; a turn-up here often accompanies relief bounces.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Negative but flattening; histogram likely contracting as price bases 510–525. Curling momentum favors a modest upside attempt.

4. Volatility and Bands

• Daily ATR(14) rough ≈ 110–140 (observed recent daily ranges). This supports a realistic 24h move into the 534–552 band without requiring an outsized extension.
• Bollinger Bands (20D, qualitative): 20D midline ≈ 579; with elevated post-parabola volatility, the lower band likely sits in the high‑400s/low‑500s. Price near mid-lower region favors mean reversion attempts toward the middle band, but 579–590 will be a strong lid near term.

5. Volume, OBV/Accumulation (Qualitative)

• Today’s session: Multiple higher-volume hours occurred on rebounds (00:00, 03:00, 11:00 UTC bursts) with price closing above the day’s VWAP (see below), signaling dip absorption. OBV on a daily basis likely flattened after the mid-Nov dump; not breaking down further is constructive.

6. VWAP and Intraday Flow

• Approx 24h VWAP (weighted by the hours with reported volume) ≈ 512. Current 523 > VWAP suggests bulls reasserted control intraday. Holding above 512 favors a continuation toward R1/R2 pivots.

7. Ichimoku (Daily, qualitative)

• Price remains well above the lagging cloud due to the October/November surge, but has slipped below the conversion/base lines recently. That configuration is short-term bearish within a long-term bullish regime. A bounce to re-test the base/conversion zone (roughly mid‑550s to high‑500s band) is plausible before any larger decision.

8. Fibonacci Map (Recent Major Swing)

• Using swing low 443 (Nov 11) to swing high 736 (Nov 16):
  • 38.2% ≈ 624 (acted as resistance multiple times)
  • 50% ≈ 589–590 (confluent with 20D SMA; expect heavy supply)
  • 61.8% ≈ 555 (intermediate resistance)
  • 78.6% ≈ 506 (strong support cluster with psychology 500)
• Current price 523 above 78.6% and below 61.8% implies a rebound window toward 552–555 if 510–515 holds.

9. Classical Pivots (Using Nov 25 H/L/C: 532.59 / 485.45 / 511.95)

• Pivot P ≈ 510.0; R1 ≈ 534.6; R2 ≈ 557.1; R3 ≈ 581.7; S1 ≈ 487.4; S2 ≈ 462.9.
• Today’s action respected P (~510) and has not yet tested R1 534.6. The next logical magnet is R1, then partial extension to the R2 neighborhood if momentum improves.

10. Price Patterns

• Hourly: Emerging ascending channel/flag from 494.6 low with constructive retests of 512–515 and pushes to 526–527. No blow-off; controlled grind higher typically precedes an R1 test.
• Daily: Potential rounded basing within the broader correction; two-session stabilization. Yesterday’s small-body candle near support followed by today’s green close above pivot is a common two-candle basing sequence.

11. Regression/Mean Reversion Lens

• Z-score vs 20D mean: (523 − 579)/σ. With σ high (~90–100), Z ≈ −0.6 to −0.7. Negative but not extreme, favoring a modest reversion bounce vs. a new impulse down immediately, especially with intraday trend up.

12. Elliott Wave (Heuristic)

• From 736 high, an ABC correction appears plausible: A leg down, B reflex to ~698 (Nov 16), C leg toward ~512 (Nov 25). If C is near completion, a countertrend rally (Wave 1/A) into 552–590 can unfold before the next decisive move.

13. Support/Resistance Stack (Confluence)

• Supports: 506–515 (78.6% Fib + pivot/psych + intraday demand), 493–500 (intraday low cluster), 471–485 (Nov 22/25 lows), 443 (major daily anchor).
• Resistances: 534–536 (R1 pivot + local supply), 552–557 (Fib 61.8% + R2 proximity), 579–590 (20D SMA + 50% retrace; major cap), 623–625 (38.2% retrace), 655–680 (late-Nov supply).

14. Scenario Analysis (Next 24h)

• Base Case (60%): Hold 512–518 on dips, rotate up to tag 534–536 (R1). If momentum persists, extension to 548–552 where sellers likely reassert. Close near 540–548.
• Bear Case (25%): Lose 512, re-test 506–508. If 505 breaks on volume, a liquidity sweep toward 493–500 (or 485) before mean-reverting back to ~510. Close ~505–515.
• Bull Extension (15%): Strong bid lifts straight through 534 into 552–557 in one session. Upper daily cap near 557 likely stalls first test.

15. Risk Management Notes

• Optimal dip entry is above structural support (515–518) to keep invalidation tight under 505–509 cluster.
• A protective stop (not requested for output but recommended) near 503–505 reduces tail risk of a drive to 485/471.
• First profit harvest near 534–536; core target 548–552 (pre‑R2/Fib confluence); stretch 557 if momentum spikes.

Synthesis and Decision

• Despite the daily trend still below key SMAs (short-term corrective), intraday structure, VWAP reclaim, and confluence at the 78.6% retracement favor a tactical long for a 24h bounce into 534 then 548–552. The risk is cleanly defined below 505–509. The expected reward (~30–40 points) versus risk (~10–12 points from a 516 entry with a 503–505 stop) is favorable for a short-duration trade.

Prediction (24h): Likely drift higher to test 534; if accepted, an extension to 548–552 before sellers fade the move.